ACUS11 KWNS 031915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031915=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0342
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Texas South Plains into central Oklahoma
and southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 031915Z - 032115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is likely this afternoon as initial supercells
develop along the cold front. Large/very-large hail and severe winds
will be the main hazards. The tornado threat is conditional on
maintaining a discrete storm mode into early evening.

DISCUSSION...The observed 18Z LMN sounding showed a firm cap at
about 800 mb. Modifying this sounding for nearby current surface
observations would suggest that this cap is eroding, which is
supported by visible satellite/regional radars showing a few deeper showers/thunderstorms over the last hour. 30-40 kts of effective
shear will promote initial supercells capable of large/very-large
hail as well well as severe wind gusts. Given the shear vector
mostly parallel to the cold front as well as the stronger linear
forcing, initial activity is expected to congeal somewhat quickly.
The tornado threat is less clear on account of the initially weak
low-level shear as well as the transition to a linear mode. However,
a weak surface low in Northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma could
be a zone of greater discrete storm potential. Should those storms
remain discrete into the evening, there will be an increase in
low-level shear and, accordingly, a greater tornado risk. This
scenario is low confidence, though.

..Wendt/Hart.. 04/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4x1i17dlUkIEho0eJR6JnuPUxxhjIw473plUvb5Ib6q_LvJS6gNWDF50T74rwdkNMQLdJzAmn= Ys28iQWR3XlMF1GKPE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 33290091 34420054 36539837 37919712 38069677 38049623
37839552 37529501 37139488 35879616 33919847 32999980
32910044 33290091=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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