ACUS11 KWNS 032305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032305=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-040100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Texas Rolling Plains into central
Oklahoma and southeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93...

Valid 032305Z - 040100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 93
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered supercells continue to pose a threat for
large/very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A transition to a
more linear storm mode and severe wind threat is expected with time.
The tornado threat remains conditional on a discrete storm
persisting into the evening.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite/radar imagery depicts
scattered supercells along a cold front/trailing dryline from
eastern Kansas southwestward into the Texas Rolling Plains. While
storms have struggled to maintain intensity thus far owing to
lingering capping, moderate buoyancy (2000-2500+ J/kg MLCAPE) and
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear will continue to support discrete/semi-discrete supercells capable of large/very large hail
to 2+ inches in diameter and severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear
vectors are largely oriented parallel to the southeastward
progressing cold front, which is expected to favor upscale growth
into a more linear storm mode over the next few hours, with a
transition to severe wind gusts as the primary hazard. The tornado
threat remains conditional on maintaining a discrete storm into the
evening hours when a strengthening nocturnal low-level jet will
favor increasing low-level shear/hodograph curvature. The greatest
potential for discrete storm maintenance appears to be across
northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma in close proximity to a weak
surface low located near the cold front/dryline intersection/

..Chalmers.. 04/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!58RbkysgwXO5So9DR-rMc-O0Hiejvb2GwXxVtQRNb4FuErBTc_Qbr85hUbafvFCvPWz98uQlW= BllZuPf2cwbI-jyYbU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LUB...

LAT...LON 33300053 33660068 34729968 35669858 36619722 37469655
38339622 38539602 38669547 38449472 37839468 36929480
35949559 34569695 33579838 33269917 33169999 33300053=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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