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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0355

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Apr 4 08:03:35 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 040803
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 040803=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-041000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0355
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0303 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

    Areas affected...South-central Oklahoma into north-central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95...

    Valid 040803Z - 041000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 95
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Locally damaging gusts remain possible with a
    back-building MCS. A downstream watch issuance is not currently
    expected, though trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KFDR shows a back-building
    MCS moving slowly southward across south-central OK into
    north-central TX. The FWS VWP is sampling a 50-kt southerly
    low-level jet and related warm-air advection feeding into this
    convective system, and given upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints and
    30 to 40 kt of deep-layer shear, locally damaging gusts will remain
    possible. However, given the orientation of the MCS with respect to
    the deep-layer shear and low-level jet, anafrontal convection should
    continue to limit the overall severe risk. The one exception is
    along the Red River in south-central OK and north-central TX, where
    the westerly deep-layer shear has an oblique orientation to the
    line, which could support new convective development along/ahead of
    the gust front and a relatively greater damaging-wind risk in the
    near-term. Current thinking is that the severe risk will remain too
    localized and marginal for a new downstream watch, though trends
    will be monitored.

    ..Weinman/Guyer.. 04/04/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6hBMRJXIQYfqyDLVSFlrHHoEm1_VtImJoUHiWIsWrOjZZr7tzVecI0S39FDS-B4UCvrmnQxfK= By-IPu6hgojTHH6blg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33489886 33979778 34429726 34529687 34459646 34249619
    33899616 33439649 32689773 32589829 32839881 33229899
    33489886=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)