ACUS11 KWNS 042256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042255=20
PAZ000-NYZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0362
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026

Areas affected...much of northern Ohio into far northwest
Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97...

Valid 042255Z - 050030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 97
continues.

SUMMARY...Forced convection continues in a couple of bands across
Ohio this evening. The overall environment should continue to
stabilize with the loss of diurnal heating, but a severe gust or
brief tornado remains possible for another couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Two narrow bands of convection continue to move across
portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #97. The leading band,
stretching from near Cleveland, OH, to near Columbus, OH, is being
forced on a pre-frontal band of ascent perhaps associated with a
cold front aloft. The environment along and ahead of this band is
stabilizing as evidenced by recent objectively analyzed MUCAPE
fields falling to between 500 and 1000 J/kg and MLCAPE increasingly
less than 100 J/kg. Continued stabilization of the lower levels will
temper a more widespread severe event despite favorable low level
kinematic fields. That said, a severe thunderstorm wind gust or two
may remain possible for the next couple of hours given the strength
of the low-level flow.=20

To the west of this first band, a second band of convection
stretches from the western edge of Lake Erie to near Dayton, OH.
This band is being driven by low-level convergence along the surface
front. Instability is rather limited ahead of this line, but given
the increased surface vorticity along the cold front and strong
low-level flow, a damaging wind gust or brief tornado may still be
possible, as supported by several small-scale circulations within
the last hour across southeast Lower Michigan.

With both bands, convective trends will be monitored and unless
activity strengthens in the next hour or so, all or portions of the
severe thunderstorm watch may be canceled early.

..Marsh.. 04/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-yQjBr8a5V5B8RE6JxnsM3EBjhuohlEJOcQEnaF_fTFzgxcC5Br3A3rt1pvEcQtCqAP7GPw7x= NH1sKZtlhSfyeI2drg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...

LAT...LON 39728358 40228347 40248353 40508352 40508339 40658341
40678348 40788349 40828389 41718389 41718375 42108378
42078328 41988314 41878309 41678268 41688238 42208126
42358018 42477985 42257974 42037973 42007958 41627960
41617980 41507997 41478050 40918050 40908105 40708106
40738119 40668124 40648162 40468165 40458216 39938222
39938279 39778282 39818323 39708325 39728358=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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