AWUS01 KWNH 260432
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-260900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0529
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1232 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Eastern Missouri, Southern/Central Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260431Z - 260900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand downstream of a
shortwave across eastern Missouri and into Illinois. Rainfall
rates within this convection will likely reach 1-2"/hr, leading to
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...A shortwave noted via GOES-E WV imagery lifting
northeast near the Bootheel of MO will continue to track slowly
ENE overnight. Downstream of this shortwave, thunderstorms have
been expanding as noted via the regional radar mosaic, with an
increase in LightningCast probabilities suggesting additional
convection is blossoming even outside of the higher reflectivity
at this hour. Recent MRMS rainfall within this new convection has
exceeded 1" in the past hour, and these rates are expected to
expand into the overnight hours.

As the shortwave lifts northeast, it will force some locally
accelerated and backed 850mb inflow, becoming S/SW at 20-30 kts.
This inflow will not only draw elevated thermodynamics northward
(1.7-2.0 inch PWs and 1000 J/kg MUCAPE), but also force some more
impressive isentropic ascent into and atop the wavering stationary
front analyzed by WPC. Together, this should result in an
expansion of thunderstorm coverage during the next few hours, with
an intensification of rain rates for which both the HREF and REFS
indicate have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 1"/hr. Mean storm
motions of these thunderstorms are progged to increase to 10-20
kts, but regeneration within the higher instability to the SW and
along the wavering front as the local inflow backs will cause
Corfidi vectors to collapse to around 5 kts. This suggests some backbuilding/repeating potential of cells, with which 1"/hr rain
rates could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts.

7-day rainfall across this area has generally been well below
normal, although some areas of 150-300% of normal rain has
occurred in southeast MO and central IL. It is in these locations
where FFG is locally compromised to 1.5"/3hrs, and any more
prolonged training of rainfall could yield instances of flash
flooding into the early morning.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4iqH_iuYYeVEWqa2zOvkmR3DXcLQwkBhx_ZiPimqjnSwyLWQR5jfw6DzcHClI2ReYsC0= Oc4GKni__4RcmaUF7Kj7o2o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...IND...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39968857 39738744 39308707 38778707 38098752=20
37568819 37288884 37158962 37179043 37369129=20
37649194 38009246 38959293 39549153 39928934=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

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AWUS01 KWNH 260706
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-261230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Southeast KS, Northeast OK, Southwest MO,
Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 260705Z - 261230Z

Summary...Repeating showers and thunderstorms with 1-2+"/hr rain
rates will continue a flash flood risk through the morning.
Additional rainfall in some areas could exceed 3 inches.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight shows thunderstorms
continuing to build westward and then train E/SE across southern
Kansas. These storms have been ongoing much of the night, and are
expected to continue several more hours along a stationary front
and slowly southward advancing outflow boundary. Recent hourly
rainfall measured by MRMS has exceeded 1.5" in southern Kansas,
and 6-hr rainfall has been above 4" already tonight leading to
locally significant flash flooding near Wichita.

During the next few hours, the high-res guidance suggests that
this event should begin to wane as convection presses east more
into Missouri and south into Oklahoma. With convective overturning
tonight severely limiting MLCAPE anywhere north of the stationary
front, this appears a reasonable evolution. However, locally
accelerated and backed 850mb inflow in the vicinity of a wave of
low pressure will still drive impressive thermodynamic advection
as PWs of 2-2.2 inches and MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg into the area.
This combined with the resulting enhanced isentropic ascent atop
both the outflow boundary and the front should result in continued
convective development, especially upstream towards the surface
low and on the western edge of the stationary front. Despite at
least subtle stabilization of the environment, both the HREF and
the REFS indicate a 30-50% chance (10-20% chance) for 1"/hr
(2"/hr) rain rates. With cells backbuilding to the west and then
likely training along the boundary due to generally parallel
850-300mb mean winds, this will produce repeating rounds of heavy
rainfall through which 3+ inches of rain could accumulate.

This region has been saturated recently as reflected by 7-day
rainfall departures that are generally 300-600% of normal, not
even including rain the last 6-12 hours. This has resulted in
extremely vulnerable soils with 3-hr FFG as low as 1 inch.
Although rainfall through morning may be less intense than what
has occurred overnight, any additional heavy rain, or any training
across these sensitive areas, could result in additional flash
flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_wBPgU6qXlKsXVtZpHc1SBwpqetXQdIEFdZcDtAN2KFDjjPJ4v2GzKpi1cAQRtx0x0xw= DtBh-DPkc-Q7aLgFZdlhYUo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38649462 38579318 38219272 37839245 37339224=20
36759256 36249327 35949436 35999547 36649779=20
37219890 37519928 37749957 37979951 38109923=20
38159865 38159771 38289676 38519567=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261742
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0531
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Ozark Plateau into the Lower Ohio
Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 261740Z - 262340Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be gradually
redeveloping and expanding in coverage this afternoon and into the
evening hours. High rainfall rates locally exceeding 2 inches/hour
are expected, and with generally wet antecedent conditions and
high streamflows, there will likely be new areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery along with surface
observations show a broad area of low pressure over eastern KS
which is advancing slowly off to the east toward areas of western
MO. This is traversing a frontal zone draped generally west to
east from the central Plains eastward into the OH Valley.

Despite substantial morning cloud cover, the warm-sector airmass
pooling along this front and ahead of the surface low has been
gradually destabilizing with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg
across central MO through southern IL. However, much stronger
thermodynamics are noted over the Ozark Plateau where MLCAPE
values have risen to 1500 to 2000 J/kg. The environment is very
moist with PWs on the order of 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above
normal with values of 1.8 to 2.2 inches.

This very moist and increasingly unstable airmass will be in place
as some modest, low-amplitude shortwave energy embedded within the
mid-level westerly flow traverses the region going through the
afternoon hours. The result will be the development and expansion
of heavy showers and thunderstorms that will be capable of
producing rainfall rates as high as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. A
combination of weak DPVA, low-level moisture convergence near and
south of the front, and relatively divergent flow aloft will help
facilitate the convective threat. Some modest shear also is noted
which may favor some relatively organized multicell bands of
heavier showers and thunderstorms that may support these higher
rainfall rates.

The latest HRRR guidance and the 12Z HREF/REFS solutions show
increasing coverage of convection over the next several hours with
some localized rainfall totals reaching 3 to 4+ inches by early
this evening. Areas east of the Ozark Plateau including southeast
MO (near Cape Girardeau), southern IL (near Carbondale), and
southern IN (approaching Evansville) are generally favored to see
the heaviest totals for this nowcast period. However, by early
this evening, convection should develop and become increasingly
more focused across the Ozark Plateau including southwest MO,
northern AR and back into northeast OK.

Most of the region is generally quite sensitive, with wet
antecedent conditions. The additional rainfall potential over the
next several hours, and especially by this evening, will strongly
favor runoff concerns and a likelihood for more areas of flash
flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_NWuwjIvrid4FwfIUdLSeEneaAN3kNF8Wu2DjYuxEzxNLSBTUq_Qxn6F4ObwW3vHxKDU= yU1d1YtzZv3QGFdD9NmhV8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... OHX...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39139036 39028778 38288575 37268568 36758674=20
36628738 36308870 35718997 35369071 34899205=20
34929399 35269514 35799599 36649623 37519554=20
38469398 38969224=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261840
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-270030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0532
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
239 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of New York and Northern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261839Z - 270030Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms may pose an isolated concern for some flash flooding
through early this evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a digging upper
trough across the Northeast U.S., with radar imagery confirming
the development and expansion of showers and thunderstorms across
areas of the Adirondacks and into adjacent areas of northern New
England.

Surface low pressure is seen gradually lifting northeastward
across northern NY and this coupled with DPVA, increasing boundary
layer instability, and orographic forcing should tend to favor an
uptick in the coverage of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms
going through at least early this evening.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg, with PWs near
1.25 inches. This coupled with the aid of upslope flow near the
terrain and some deeper layer shear should favor some locally
organized pockets of convection with rainfall rates capable of
reaching 1.5 inches/hour with the stronger convective cores.

The latest hires model consensus support some spotty 2 to 3 inch
rainfall totals through early this evening. This may result in an
isolated concern for some runoff problems and flash flooding, and
particularly near some of the more sensitive and rugged terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Si-qd4hulRzwBFhlOceOszTUBIFlm4vRl34z3JU0dd0oZlwAjAAEuLr-uksQrzDWy2r= 1tv1yvmsB9HYjEsDIdzbbxo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47106939 46646847 45116877 43657045 42987174=20
42917337 43517438 44297468 44777397 44927263=20
45287127 46057062 46607009=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 261912
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0533
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley...Central Appalachians
and Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 261911Z - 270100Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms will pose
at least a localized threat of flash flooding through early this
evening given increasingly high rainfall rate potential.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with radar data shows some gradual increase in the coverage
of mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of
the OH Valley, central Appalachians and the interior of the
central Mid-Atlantic. MLCAPE values have increased to 500 to 1000
J/kg, and the PWs across the region are gradually increasing as
upstream moisture transport from the Mid-South focuses across
broader areas of the OH Valley and eastward into the central
Appalachians. PWs west of the Appalachians have risen to 1.5 to
1.75 inches, with values closer to 1.5 inches over the central
Mid-Atlantic.

Multiple upstream shortwave impulses transiting the OH Valley will
begin to move into the central Appalachians and the interior of
the Mid-Atlantic going through early this evening. There may be
just enough uptick in convective coverage, and the rainfall rates
to drive some localized concerns for flash flooding. The greater
overall threat will tend to be over the OH Valley where the
greater moisture is in place.

Localized rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour and some spotty 2
to 3+ inch rainfall amounts going through early this evening are
supported by the latest hires model consensus. A localized urban
flash flooding threat will also be possible given the setup which
would include some areas of northern VA and perhaps near
Washington D.C.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4v1z4o4NfmNoDhyJbjqZBKJa1AtwBkS-q_ch7EeXdWKBymcGq1q9Twt70geioupCInen= b5xYnnWv7t8EF9GdNP0LZMM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...
RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39388204 39348065 39267885 39067700 38127723=20
37547953 37448042 37138196 36798397 37018495=20
37438549 37988549 38398562 38958674 39218578=20
39358395=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262318
FFGMPD
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-270417-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0534
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262317Z - 270417Z

Summary...Flash flooding remains possible near and downstream of
an evolving convective complex over south-central Indiana and
north-central Kentucky.

Discussion...Areas of flash flooding remain possible in/near a
cluster extending from Princeton/Huntingburg, IN through Owensboro
to near Beaver Dam, KY. Within this band, a mix of
forward-propagating storms and mergers (especially in southern
Indiana) were promoting areas of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. Some of
the heavier rainfall was occurring over areas that received
excessive rainfall yesterday, and local FFG (near zero in spots)
was being readily exceeded. Flash flooding has been reported in
southern Indiana with this activity.=20

The overall risk of flash flooding should continue for at least
another 2-4 hours as storms migrate through northern Kentucky and
adjacent areas of southeastern Indiana. Eventually, loss of
daytime heating should limit merger potential as storms further
congeal into a larger forward-propagating cluster. Downstream air
over eastern Kentucky has been cooled from prior rainfall, which
may also mitigate the flash flood potential via weakening updrafts
and attendant rain rates. These processes should take a few hours
to unfold though, with continued flash flood potential expected
(including near Louisville and Lexington) through at least 03Z/11p
eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6opfPus4u9Mp_vEVvCwuzvvNH5v3gnwTscpGIeGxtAMB5ccTZVaz_YKKPnIpH_R6kSnW= nUA8Z6i47SvNZesO4RUzVBE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39178549 38818397 38148326 37288349 36948502=20
37248734 38908736=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 262350
FFGMPD
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-270549-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 PM EDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Areas affected...northern Oklahoma, far southeastern Kansas,
southern/central Missouri, western Kentucky, southern Illinois,
far northern Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 262349Z - 270549Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding are expected as storms increase
in coverage through the evening and overnight hours.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite/mesoanalyses indicate the
development of scattered convection along a left-over boundary
from prior convection from near Enid, OK east-northeastward to
near Rolla, MO. The updrafts were responding to increasing
southwesterly low-level flow over a broader part of the southern
Plains that was enhancing speed convergence along that
aforementioned boundary. Very high PW (around 2+ inches) and
strong instability (3500 J/kg MLCAPE) was fostering robust
updrafts, while modest westerly steering flow aloft was enabling
slow cell movement in addition to local mergers. 1 inch/hr rain
rates were already being estimated per MRMS near some storms -
particularly near Enid and Joplin. Additionally, rainfall was
occurring atop wet/waterlogged soils from prior rainfall, with 3-7
inch rainfall totals over the past 48 hours in some areas along
with impacts (some significant).

The redevelopment of ongoing, slow-moving convection in these
areas will continue to pose a renewed flash flood risk in much of
the discussion area tonight. In addition to convection along the aforementioned boundary, a secondary area of concern exists near
Cape Girardeau and vicinity, where 2-4 inch rainfall totals over
the past 6 hours has resulted in local impacts. Upstream
convection should approach that region over the next 2-4 hours,
with a renewed flash flood risk expected.

Convection should evolve into a series of both clusters and linear
segments with plenty of opportunity for local training and
backbuilding. Areas of 2-3 inch rainfall totals are expected.=20
Flash flooding is likely, and significant impacts remain possible.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9gRvjtkVts0KTy4d9T0yza8W9KST5it38F-nwBfeYe_ypo6Uu9L-gQav94lm6aHq8B7V= Ffu-AjUe7HJ41DA_WblWKw8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...
SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38609217 38588986 38048799 37288789 36598908=20
36249201 35699630 35649859 36129890 36979864=20
37249768 37899506=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270521
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-271000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0536
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
120 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern Kansas, Northern & Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270519Z - 271000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight across north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Rainfall rates of
1-2"/hr are expected, with through repeating rounds could generate
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding may
result.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic tonight indicates two
clusters of slow moving thunderstorms persisting across OK. The
first is a very slow moving area across far northeast OK, while a
second area is steadily expanding across north-central OK. This
activity is occurring within extremely favorable thermodynamics
characterized by PWs of 1.8 - 2.1 inches, and MUCAPE of more than
2000 J/kg leading to hourly rainfall measured by MRMS in excess of
2" in the strongest storms. Forcing for ascent is being driven
both by subtle PVA/height falls downstream of an approaching
shortwave, and the increasingly impressive isentropic ascent of
the accelerating LLJ from the S/SW.

As the shortwave pushes east during the next few hours, the
response at the low levels will be a continued intensification of
the LLJ, progged to rise from the current 25-30 kts (measured via
regional VWPs) to as high as 40+ kts by daybreak. While this will
also feature some subtle veering more to the SW which will reduce
the resulting upglide, the accompanying moist advection will reach
more than +2 sigma according to the SREF, maintaining robust PWs
to support heavy rainfall. The high-res CAMs suggest that storms
will continue to fire on the nose of the LLJ and in the vicinity
of the stationary front positioned near the OK/KS border, with
additional activity developing immediately downstream of the
shortwave as it moves east. Cells that form along the LLJ will
have the potential to backbuild and move slowly NW to SE before
the convection accompanying the shortwave sweeps through by
morning. This suggests a strong likelihood for multiple rounds of
storms in many areas, and with both the HREF and REFS indicating a
30-60% chance of at least 1"/hr rainfall rates, total rain
accumulation of 2-3" with higher totals is expected.

This area has been saturated recently, reflected by 7-day rainfall
that has been generally more than 300% of normal (in some places
more than 600% of normal) which has reduced FFG to as low as
1.5-2"/3hrs. Any heavy rain rates moving atop these vulnerable
soils would likely create rapid runoff, so instances of flash
flooding may continue through early morning.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9E2Kljnz5tB5PFZHb9DkkNCESKYsLEOZ_hmFXSmh9fzczOn8trLd9w5-i0sLw0tSHY57= nLX0cB3ijwXllXbrRi9Pkj0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37979929 37879810 37679663 37439566 37029438=20
36509413 36009428 35659502 35439604 35329717=20
35339844 35509915 35810014 36370095 37060115=20
37420101 37710074 37930001=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270605
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
204 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri through Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270603Z - 271200Z

Summary...Expanding showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr are expected overnight. Repeating rounds of convection
could cause 3-4" of rain with locally higher amounts leading to
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic has shown a slow uptick in
high reflectivity above 40dBZ the past few hours for parts of
southern IN associated with intensifying convection. At the same
time, LightningCast probabilities have steadily increased and
expanded, with areas above 30% now widespread from eastern MO
through central KY. Together, this indicates that the environment
is becoming increasingly supportive for expanding and intensifying
convection with rain rates above 1"/hr as reflected by recent
hourly MRMS measurements.

The environment is steadily becoming more conducive to
intensifying thunderstorms. PWs as measured by GPS have surged to
1.9-2.1 inches, well above the 90th percentile and approaching
daily records, with continued moist advection on a SWly 850mb LLJ
of 25-30 kts as measured via regional VWPs. At the same time,
MUCAPE has slowly climbed to above 1000 J/kg in response to the
thermodynamic advection provided via this LLJ, creating the
favorable environment supporting the ongoing activity. Forcing for
ascent is slowly intensifying as well thanks to broad isentropic
upglide of the LLJ atop a surface trough, aided by convergence
along the nose of this LLJ, and at least modest RRQ diffluence
aloft supporting both synoptic and mesoscale lift. A shortwave
exiting from MO will also provide locally enhanced ascent, while
also forcing subtle acceleration of the inflow/WAA/thermodynamic
advection.

Together, this suggests that thunderstorm coverage will expand
rapidly in the next few hours within this WAA, and this is
supported by recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS. Much of this
activity is progged to develop to the SW over MO/IL and then lift
ENE on 0-6km mean winds around 20 kts. However, regenerating cells
are likely within the WAA, and Corfidi vectors falling to 5-10 kts
and becoming increasingly anti-parallel to this mean wind suggest
backbuilding and repeating of heavy rain rates are expected. These
rain rates, which are anticipated to be 1-2"/hr, if not locally
higher, will contribute to total rainfall accumulation of 3-4",
with higher amounts possible (10-30% chance of 5"). This rain
falling atop vulnerable soils due to recent heavy rain and the
resulting extremely compromised FFG (as low as 0.25-0.75"/3hrs)
will likely create instances of flash flooding into the morning
hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-D_JubxWwBzex3dR2PsMz7RBobM3JG_kdm40Cd29OaKCRMzAJYYWXj8RyPbWwgEBYUE-= yXY7LnmJTlyS2NM2K2OmMrI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39288556 39098392 38668328 38078308 37788345=20
37558437 37328566 36998688 36788797 36428898=20
36088982 35989042 36159081 36569121 36979128=20
37559116 38199068 38558986 38808877 39158717=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270609
FFGMPD
OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0537
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri through Eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 270603Z - 271200Z

Summary...Expanding showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr are expected overnight. Repeating rounds of convection
could cause 3-4" of rain with locally higher amounts leading to
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic has shown a slow uptick in
high reflectivity above 40dBZ the past few hours for parts of
southern IN associated with intensifying convection. At the same
time, LightningCast probabilities have steadily increased and
expanded, with areas above 30% now widespread from eastern MO
through central KY. Together, this indicates that the environment
is becoming increasingly supportive for expanding and intensifying
convection with rain rates above 1"/hr as reflected by recent
hourly MRMS measurements.

The environment is steadily becoming more conducive to
intensifying thunderstorms. PWs as measured by GPS have surged to
1.9-2.1 inches, well above the 90th percentile and approaching
daily records, with continued moist advection on a SWly 850mb LLJ
of 25-30 kts as measured via regional VWPs. At the same time,
MUCAPE has slowly climbed to above 1000 J/kg in response to the
thermodynamic advection provided via this LLJ, creating the
favorable environment supporting the ongoing activity. Forcing for
ascent is slowly intensifying as well thanks to broad isentropic
upglide of the LLJ atop a surface trough, aided by convergence
along the nose of this LLJ, and at least modest RRQ diffluence
aloft supporting both synoptic and mesoscale lift. A shortwave
exiting from MO will also provide locally enhanced ascent, while
also forcing subtle acceleration of the inflow/WAA/thermodynamic
advection.

Together, this suggests that thunderstorm coverage will expand
rapidly in the next few hours within this WAA, and this is
supported by recent runs of the HRRR and RRFS. Much of this
activity is progged to develop to the SW over MO/IL and then lift
ENE on 0-6km mean winds around 20 kts. However, regenerating cells
are likely within the WAA, and Corfidi vectors falling to 5-10 kts
and becoming increasingly anti-parallel to this mean wind suggest
backbuilding and repeating of heavy rain rates are expected. These
rain rates, which are anticipated to be 1-2"/hr, if not locally
higher, will contribute to total rainfall accumulation of 3-4",
with higher amounts possible (10-30% chance of 5"). This rain
falling atop vulnerable soils due to recent heavy rain and the
resulting extremely compromised FFG (as low as 0.25-0.75"/3hrs)
will likely create instances of flash flooding into the morning
hours.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8ZaHDpNw5rndGABW5QaohWHQN8xQ2AVIGGVLhndaqsu07HwOkzZ-e02KisVXzysWVCQj= Nw7EIE1elqTxKH3bmyo_TQE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... PAH...RLX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39288556 39098392 38668328 38078308 37788345=20
37558437 37328566 36998688 36788797 36428898=20
36088982 35989042 36159081 36569121 36979128=20
37559116 38199068 38558986 38808877 39158717=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 270932
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-271430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0538
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
531 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Northeast OK, Far Southeast KS, Southwest MO,
Northwest AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 270930Z - 271430Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with 1-2"/hr rain rates will
continue for a few more hours this morning. Brief training of
these rates could produce 2-3" of rain with locally higher
amounts, leading to instances of flash flooding, especially atop
vulnerable soils.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning
indicates continued development of showers and thunderstorms
across north-central OK and far southern KS. This activity is
blossoming in response to several forcing mechanisms, including a
shortwave exiting the TX Panhandle, a slowly veering 45 kt LLJ
converging across central OK, and an embedded MCV noted in
reflectivity. The resultant ascent is occurring within robust
thermodynamics characterized by PWs measured by GPS of 1.9 - 2.1
inches, over the 90th percentile for the date, overlapping MUCAPE
of 2000-300 J/kg. This has produced recent hourly rainfall
measured via MRMS of 1-1.5", leading to a few scattered FFWs from
the local WFOs overnight.

The recent high-res guidance is not excited about redeveloping
convection the next several hours, so confidence is modest as to
how this convection will evolve. However, even as the LLJ veers
diurnally through the morning, it should still maintain strong
thermodynamic advection northeastward, and will likely continue to
exceed the mean 850-300mb winds for several more hours. This
suggests further convective development, with the shortwave and
MCV providing locally backed and accelerated flow to additionally
support thunderstorm development. With the environment expected to
remain quite favorable for heavy rainfall rates, additional
thunderstorms will likely (>60% chance from both the REFS and
HREF) contain rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr. While cells should be
progressive to the ENE around 20 kts, repeating rounds of
convection are expected, leading to rainfall that has a 30-40%
chance of exceeding 3".

Most concerning for the continuing flash flood risk is that any
heavy rainfall associated with this convection will be occurring
atop very vulnerable soils. 7-day rainfall has been 300-600% of
normal, even excluding overnight rain, producing 0-40cm soil
moisture that is almost uniformly above the 95th percentile. This
has created compromised FFG that is around 2"/3hrs, but is locally
as low as just 0.25"/3hrs. This indicates that even as storms move progressively eastward and begin to weaken as the LLJ veers, any
heavy rain could result in additional instances of flash flooding
due to the sensitivity of the soils across the region.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7KrSWH2-CyW_uUSxW-m1538OKw0N5lIbfxw_R9gxiHHxbUNM8jX448_sS9UbIZ0Yj8sB= 7SGfd8jEFaJlM9xRKy209Dk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...LSX...LZK...OUN...PAH...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37939254 37849165 37299114 36969108 36529123=20
36039191 35449390 35169517 35059604 35439711=20
36089787 36589802 36939775 37059679 37069617=20
37069583 37309494 37529394 37769347=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271201
FFGMPD
VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-271800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0539
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Middle MS and OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271200Z - 271800Z

SUMMARY...Regional concerns for flash flooding will continue over
the next several hours going into the early afternoon hours.
Repeating rounds of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity will
support new areas of flash flooding, and locally significant
impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
regional radar data shows an elongated axis of broken shower and
thunderstorm activity impacting areas of southern IL, southern IN,
and multiple areas of central KY. More recently some of this
activity has been edging into western WV as well. All of this
convection is associated with multiple MCVs that are embedded
within the westerly mid-level flow pattern across the Middle MS
and OH Valley region. Much of the region is very moist, with PWs
of 1.8 to 2.2 inches, and generally on the order of 2 to 2.5
standard deviations above normal for late June.

The early morning OSPO ALPW data shows substantial moisture in the
mid and upper-levels of the vertical column and supportive of
tall, skinny CAPE profiles. This is a rather classic warm rain
setup which is likely to result in extremely efficient convection
for high-end rainfall rate potential. Already the ejecting vort
energy is fostering sufficient lift for broken clusters/bands of
convection, but with nearly unidirectional flow through the
column, and upwind propagation vectors very weak and nearly
opposing the deeper layer mean flow, we are going to see an
environment conducive for backbuilding and training convection.

Already some hints of this are noted over areas of far southern IN
down through central KY. The MUCAPE values are on the order of
1000 to 2000 J/kg for much of the region, except for far eastern
KY and western WV where they are more in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range. This coupled with the level of deep moisture in place and
high WCL depths will support rainfall rates easily into the 2 to 3
inch/hour range, with even some potential for rates higher than
this.

Given the repeating/training nature of the heavy rainfall threat,
some additional totals through 18Z (1PM CDT) may reach 3 to 5
inches, and there are multiple hires model CAMs that support this,
although there is disagreement on the placement. Radar and
satellite trends would favor areas of central KY probably seeing
the best potential for this. But areas farther west across
southeast MO into southern IL and southern IN will also see
separate bands of convection with very heavy rainfall potential.

The threat of flash flooding is increasing, and new areas of flash
flooding are expected over the next several hours. This will
include a threat for locally significant impacts going through
early this afternoon.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-v6y-LUeVOkLcucnluWUKaWtBNRxpjTO7R8XeeUt3uqCYjQ6_qo8dq0V0N2jRRnBdy9L= EZRH3y5PLgMPL5GIPkYkkeU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...LZK...MEG... MRX...OHX...PAH...RLX...RNK...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38998291 38658107 37608094 36748349 36528527=20
36338756 36249047 36519181 36969233 37569202=20
38049091 38378935 38548801 38768543=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271802
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 271800Z - 280000Z

SUMMARY...Locally repeating rounds of extremely heavy showers and
thunderstorms will continue over the next several hours.
Significant and life-threatening flash flooding will remain a
threat into the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with the latest radar shows broken areas of very heavy
showers and thunderstorms still impacting portions of central KY,
with recent strong development seen over parts of south-central
IL. Additionally, a very well-defined MCV is noted over southeast
MO which is advancing steadily off to the east. This energy has
been a major facilitator of the recent development over
south-central IL and is also driving some pockets convection
across far southern IL and far western KY.

Regionally, the airmass remains very moist with high PWs reaching
2.0 to 2.25 inches, and this is supported by the latest OSPO ALPW
data which shows high moisture concentrations well up into the
300/500 mb layer. Meanwhile, a substantial pool of instability is
becoming increasingly focused up across southern IL down through
western KY. Solar insolation has driven MLCAPE values of 1500 to
2500 J/kg across these areas, and this is bumping up against an
outflow boundary and downstream cold pool across portions of
southern IN and central KY.

The concern moving forward this afternoon and into the evening
hours will be the upstream MCV over southeast MO which will move
gradually across southern IL and into western KY. This should
interact with the strong thermodynamics downstream to drive an
uptick in convection and increasingly high rainfall rates.
However, the increasing warm air/theta-e advection around the
eastern flank of the MCV will likely interact with the downstream aforementioned outflow boundary/cold pool for an isentropic
component to the convective threat. Regenerating areas of
extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms may occur in time across
areas of southwest IN on down into central KY as this process
plays out by later this afternoon.

A 30 to 40+ kt southwest low-level jet is already in place, and
this focusing of moisture/instability transport up into the Lower
OH Valley coupled with the mesoscale boundaries and aforementioned
vort energy will support convection with extreme rainfall rates. A
highly conducive environment for backbuilding and training
convection will exist with the persistence of weak and nearly
opposing Corfidi vectors.

Rainfall rates are likely to reach 2 to 3+ inches/hour, and the
latest multi-model hires CAMs support as much as an additional 3
to 5+ inches of rain through early this evening. Already a number
of flash flooding reports, including a couple of catastrophic FFW
issuances (in central KY) have materialized today. The additional
rainfall over the next several hours will maintain a regional
threat for significant and life-threatening flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7zK4iAmUATvbCSmQGpiiD3hw2c7FS1aEeJck5a9bveBfh5l3VJq3IOW3WoyU8hBkpqEy= yBEpl3uGdkPnPHzvSklWxBY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...MEG...MRX...
OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39268901 39248707 38848546 38218429 37268335=20
36438320 35868405 35858596 36248809 36998995=20
37879071 38769047=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 271808
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-280000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0541
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Southeast VA and eastern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 271806Z - 280000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage through the early evening hours. Relatively slow cell
motions and backbuilding convection will lead to high rainfall
rates capable of producing flash flooding through 8 pm.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating a rapid
increase in slow moving convection across the eastern Piedmont of
North Carolina and extending into western portions of the Hampton
Roads area of Southeast Virginia. This is also seen on recent
GOES-E visible and infrared satellite imagery with expanding anvil
canopies and cooling cloud tops.

The environment will be favorable for additional storms through
the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening given
anomalous 2.0-2.2 inch PWs, 1500-2500 J/kg of mixed layer CAPE,
and effective bulk shear on the order of 20-30 knots per recent
SPC mesoanalysis. In addition, there is a weak surface trough and
surface wind convergence in the general vicinity of the I-95
corridor, and nearly unidirectional flow in the low to mid levels
will support some back-building storms with higher rainfall rates
possibly exceeding 2 inches per hour.

The latest CAM guidance suite varies on the exact placement of the
heaviest QPF, but most agree on the potential for 2-4 inch maxima
across portions of this region through 8 pm local time. Much of
this is likely to fall within a two hour time period for most
locations affected, and episodes of flash flooding will be
possible as a result.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kqN3Ad9UT-lCcPkkqBfSkR82wv3Lv_STa1BNimwdm1kJrlCKEfadK_d3XzO7gJkVVkM= bxRSI2FEIHGWe5xvqcwiv7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37727668 37567632 37467619 37207616 36927588=20
36607583 36337583 36067597 35847602 35537623=20
35087653 34777694 34377747 33917774 33787830=20
33977860 34447910 34967929 35497921 35867893=20
36507828 36847798 37327776 37637748 37707711=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 272105
FFGMPD
MTZ000-280300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0542
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...East Central Montana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 272103Z - 280300Z

SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of slow moving thunderstorms is
expected through the late afternoon and into the evening hours.
Backbuilding cells may produce rainfall rates in excess of an inch
per hour that could result in some flooding issues.

DISCUSSION...Recent Doppler radar and GOES-E satellite imagery are
indicating a steady increase in convection across portions of
southeastern Montana, with the heaviest cells in the general
vicinity of the Interstate 90 corridor near Billings and points
south and east across the Crow Reservation. There has also been
more backbuilding of the convection across this area, and leading
to enhanced rainfall rates exceeding an inch per hour.

Environmental parameters are conducive for heavy rainfall given
anomalous PWs on the order of 1 inch, coupled with strong left
exit region dynamics from a deep upper trough to the west
promoting deep layer ascent. Recent CAM guidance depicts patchy
areas of 1-2 inch rainfall totals through 9 pm local time, with
much of this falling within a two hour time period for any given
location. This may be enough to result in some instances of flash
flooding across the outlook area.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9-CzOEXPI5vDBWvouMv7WANfpQj55yMd_hCQ0G5Fp43_kkqMj70tOimBTHBDBcYMQ_Du= 5KYAohDYu1Xhpu9yyigAlH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 48980650 48950510 48810452 47830458 46570531=20
45460600 45100660 45060796 45170837 45780865=20
46510843 47630807 48790727=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280015
FFGMPD
VAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-280600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0543
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
812 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...Central KY...Northern TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280012Z - 280600Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy rainfall through the late evening into
the early overnight hours will likely lead to additional instances
of flash flooding across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee
through 2Z.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars continue to indicate a large
mesoscale convective system ongoing across much of central and
western Kentucky, with multiple areas of training convective
elements leading to enhanced rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per
hour at times. Much of central Kentucky has already been hammered
with extremely heavy rainfall earlier today, with many reports in
excess of 4 inches already, and therefore flash flood guidance is
severely reduced.

The latest CAM guidance suggests the axis of heaviest rainfall
will probably drift southward over the next several hours and
affect areas across the state line into northern Tennessee, mainly
along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor. This will allow the
complex to tap into a more unstable thermodynamic environment
where mixed layer CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg is present
and effective bulk shear of about 30 knots. PWs are also quite
high, at or above 2 inches across western portions of the outlook
area. The potential exists for maxima of 2-4 inches, and isolated
higher totals, within the main axis of training convection. Given
the extremely saturated ground conditions across much of Kentucky,
flash flooding is considered likely.

Hamrick

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9obIGTiIno5kd3NqEzmiKJ6tRI2LwNFEYdiRyUSeHEKb0_5qa8PcB0SMWpZjjqnibnHg= _H2QFo0DQ_PB4zgSKBZFoO0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38008512 37668378 36618349 35738380 35438418=20
35388487 35608590 36078713 36338813 36618877=20
36948901 37358880 37558830 37858668=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 280820
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-281400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern Missouri southeast through Eastern
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280818Z - 281400Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand and train
southeast through the morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr are
expected, leading to a corridor of 2-4" of rain with locally
higher amounts possible. This will likely lead to instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this morning shows
rapidly expanding convection organizing along a line from near St.
Louis, MO southeast to near Knoxville, TN. This convection is
intensifying along a weak surface trough and aided by impressive
ascent downstream of a convectively induced shortwave lifting
through western KY, which is overlapping the isentropic ascent
driven by the 30 kt WSW 850mb LLJ. This LLJ is also advecting
elevated thermodynamics (PWs over 2" and MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg)
northeastward to support heavy rain rates. Recent hourly rainfall
measured via MRMS has been as high as 1.5" in parts of eastern TN.

The high-res CAMs are struggling with the current evolution, but
the most recent HRRR has finally started to capture the ongoing
convection. Regardless of the CAM output, there is high confidence
that convection will continue to blossom as evidenced by a steady
surge in coverage and probability within the LightningCast
product. As the LLJ is expected to only gradually veer through
morning, it will maintain potent thermodynamic advection to
support regenerating and intensifying thunderstorms. Despite
modest CAM agreement, HREF and REFS probabilities for 1"/hr
(2"/hr) rain rates increase to 50-70% (10-20%) through morning.
These storms are expected to train SW to NE along the weak surface
boundary thanks to nearly parallel mean 0-6km winds, with the
veering of the LLJ causing Corfidi vector collapse to around 5 kts
suggesting an increased risk for backbuilding into the greater
instability. Together, this poses a strong training mechanism to
create corridors of rainfall exceeding 3" (40% chance) with
isolated totals approaching 5" possible (10-20% chance).

Training of these intense rain rates will pose a flash flood risk
for the next several hours. However, this threat is made even
greater by extremely vulnerable soils due to recent heavy
rainfall. 3-hr FFG is as low as 0.25" in some areas, and broadly
less than 1", for which the HREF indicates has a 60-80% chance of
exceedance. Additionally, this region has sensitive terrain that
makes it even more vulnerable to flash flooding, so any training
during the next several hours will likely result in flash flood
impacts.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!958DrSD2mE08uZHvuilGd26uaScbZr27Sbb5sIIdCFB-4pRLHyk33NY8HTGZmM4C0mYv= yOQST8U2PoAafSTFzyBQeak$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...ILX...IND...JKL...LMK...LSX...MRX...OHX...
PAH...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39478970 39148851 38598654 38218526 37868440=20
37108305 36518268 35958281 35568340 35448436=20
35898580 36658734 37248886 37909025 38959173=20
39429135=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 281402
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-281900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0545
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 AM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Southern KY...Northeast TN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 281400Z - 281900Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
to locally backbuild and train over the same area for a few more
hours. Portions of mainly southern KY and into northeast TN are
likely to see more areas of flash flooding which may be locally
significant going through the early to mid-afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The mid-morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
long-lived northwest/southeast axis of cold-topped convection
continuing to drop down across areas of southern KY through
northeast TN. This axis of convection has been locally
backbuilding and training over the same areas for several hours,
and it continues to feature pockets of extremely heavy rainfall
rates which have occasionally reached 2 to 3 inches/hour.

The latest RAP data shows the convection traversing a well-defined
instability gradient which is aligned with a surface
trough/outflow boundary. MLCAPE values across western KY and
adjacent areas of western and central TN are on the order of 1500
to 2000 J/kg which is bumping up against the convectively
reinforced cold pool across southern KY through northeast TN.
Westerly low-level flow at 850mb continues to be on the order of
20 to 30 kts which is favoring an isentropic
ascent/frontogenetical forcing component to the convective threat,
and especially with the modest, but persistent moisture and
instability transport.

Given the setup, and with PWs of as much as 2.0 to 2.25 inches,
the rainfall rates will likely continue to be quite extreme with
the stronger convective cores and capable of reaching 2 to 3
inches/hour. The good news though is that the cloud top
temperatures do appear to be leveling off just a bit, and with
some slackening of the westerly low-level flow, the ongoing
convection should begin to gradually weaken fairly soon.

Regardless, some localized additional rainfall totals may reach 3
to 4+ inches through mid-afternoon. This will support more areas
of flash flooding, some of which may be significant, given the
ongoing considerable runoff problems, sensitive soil conditions,
and terrain-driven considerations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5t1un91l-4kHcw-kM2rOEps0jSK9u8Tdlpa8YNhwW2cP3Eh0N1V2LvK7-xUqGbu6B9d_= duyBhPdzKuIa5IXufmegSFs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LMK...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37508521 37248416 36488320 35868294 35498352=20
35558434 36028510 36728582 37268590=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 281728
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-282325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0546
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 281725Z - 282325Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of locally slow-moving showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through early this
evening. Locally high rainfall rates are expected which may lead
to a few instances of flash flooding. This may include some
localized urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a weak area of low
pressure situated over eastern OH which is slowly advancing along
a quasi-stationary front draped from the OH Valley eastward across
the central Appalachians and portions of the Mid-Atlantic region.
A substantial amount of moisture is pooled along the front with
PWs as high as 1.75 to 2.0 inches, and while there has been
substantial early day cloud cover, recently GOES-E visible
satellite imagery is showing some breaks in the cloud cover across
southwest PA down through central WV and portions of western VA.
This has allowed for some uptick in boundary layer instability
with MLCAPE values of 500 to 1000 J/kg in place.

Additional surface heating will favor a further destabilization
process over the next few hours, and this coupled with modest
frontal convergence and localized upslope flow over the higher
terrain of the Appalachians/Blue Ridge will support the
development and expansion of scattered areas of showers and
thunderstorms. Already the latest radar imagery shows some broken
shower and thunderstorm activity across portions of the northern
WV Panhandle and southwest PA.

Any convection this afternoon through this evening is expected to
be rather slow-moving, but also relatively shallow. This will
support some higher efficiency/warm rain potential for locally
elevated rainfall rates. The multi-model CAMs including those from
the HREF and REFS support some rainfall rates reaching 1 to 2
inches/hour. Some potential will exist for some convective cells
to become locally anchored near the front and over the terrain
itself, and this will support a concern for locally excessive
rainfall totals that could reach as high as 2 to 3+ inches.

Given the localized rainfall potential and relatively low FFG
values, a few instances of flash flooding will be possible. This
may also include some urban impact potential across areas of
southwest PA near the Pittsburgh metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7CbbC108mW4JbhtjmsvjheyaN8nFg45O2m0-Ci79-R2sCUYybXgjj316V6eYxMS80zvs= 3kifiD4KPhctnz33HnUMICg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40878036 40817919 40017845 39147811 37807809=20
37037856 36707914 36738001 37238095 38238133=20
39388129 40338101=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 282003
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-290200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0547
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
402 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Virginia and Central/Eastern North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 282000Z - 290200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms with locally high rainfall rates
should lead to a few instances of flash flooding in the southern
Mid-Atlantic through this evening, particularly for urban areas.

DISCUSSION...As of 20Z there is a weak surface low over eastern VA
with lee side troughing extending down through the NC Piedmont.
This is ahead of a mid-level trough axis pushing east over the
southern Appalachians. This is a warm/moist sector with abundant
moisture (PW of 2 to 2.2") and strong surface based instability
(SBCAPE 2000 J/kg in eastern VA and 3000 J/kg in south-central
NC). Also, there is an MCV associated with the morning flood
activity in KY/TN currently tracking south of Charlotte, NC and
outflow/sea breeze in eastern NC from ongoing activity.

Forcing from the mid-level trough axis will continue to promote
peak diurnal convective development that organizes somewhat in
20-30kt bulk shear and 20kt mean layer westerly flow. While most
convection will be somewhat progressive, there is a risk for
repeating activity/cell mergers. Hourly rates should continue to
peak in the 1-2"/hr range. FFG is generally 2-3"/hr, so the main
threat areas should be for urban areas including Richmond, Hampton
Roads, the NC Triangle. Localized flash flooding should be
expected through this evening. Activity may last through the
evening and require a followup discussion.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!992Kx42emq-1s1Zj0lFNQxPIFIXLALOyMDzqcrxQ6s_ZpKduqkfAuO3TIRJuE30s76jl= RWRghr_J2npH4MvCOHQTVdM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38067728 38037654 37937544 37437518 35817545=20
35067609 34517670 34167822 34147944 34748093=20
36397971 37047876 37667812=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 291833
FFGMPD
MIZ000-292130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...Tip of the MItt, Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 291828Z - 292130Z

SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of extreme rainfall from repeating
thunderstorms is expected to continue across the Tip of the Mitt
in Michigan (northern tip of the lower Peninsula) through the rest
of the afternoon. Rainfall rates of 2-4" with totals of 3-6" will
continue through the next couple hours and produce considerable
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...As of 18Z an ongoing wave of activity over northern
Michigan has focused into a single corridor that is slightly
elevated over the Tip of the Mitt. Rainfall estimates of 2-4"/hr
are from KAPX with totals reaching 5.5" west of Pellston. This
activity will continue to shift east while propagating upstream on
the northern end of surface based instability. MUCAPE is around
2000 J/kg on the west side of the Tip and will continue shifting
east from the I-75 corridor and across the US 23 Highway on the
lakeshore. This activity did trend north since the late morning,
but may still sag south before shifting over Lake Huron.

These extreme rainfall rates will cause deep ponding on roads and
considerable rapid runoff concerns.

Jackson

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!66E9QNrKdnRz6FFw3_J2i2RYIVFZ10g9bsW44jKzaoXkRKkZskdjkVrmyujICDoljeXM= ktzcQuE9GPH5LAQE31EO_Aw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45868511 45838451 45708397 45468343 44998325=20
45108389 45198493 45278524 45558530=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 291837
FFGMPD
NDZ000-300000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...central ND

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 291833Z - 300000Z

SUMMARY...At least an isolated flash flood threat will materialize
across central ND this afternoon with hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface observations showed a quasi-stationary
front oriented south to north across west-central ND, marking the
edge of higher instability to the east. SPC mesoanalysis data
showed 1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE east of the boundary and visible
satellite imagery showed expanding Cu/TCu with the early stages of
convective initiation across Morton, Oliver and McLean counties.
Moisture was also increasing across central ND, to the north of a
surface low in northern SD, within low level easterly flow and
surface dewpoints in the 70-75 degree range, resulting in
estimated precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.8 inches.

Larger scale ascent ahead of a closed upper low over eastern MT
and associated shortwave trough extending into WY will continue to
advance eastward with continued (and possibly rapid) expansion of
thunderstorm coverage over the next 1-2 hours. Individual cells
will advance toward the north to northeast at anywhere between
20-40 kt but multiple rounds and cell alignment with the gradient
in MLCAPE will allow for areas of repeating and short term
training. Hourly rainfall values of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher
possible) are expected to develop into the afternoon with isolated
storm totals of 2 to 4 inches through 00Z. At least isolated flash
flooding will be possible given relatively low FFG values of 2
inches or less in 3 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!46p6c5wqJyLJrO1d02-wY_U2u6JSRgaSPbLfoKha3klIefoS8L0JnVy1Bhfq2NfP_CBl= Au9YrMKKaEjQy0-n0J3N96U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49110106 49109793 47689848 46389953 46170055=20
46470126 47260160 48260164=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 300302
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1102 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...Central Nebraska through far Southern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 300301Z - 300900Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold
front will expand and train through the overnight hours. Rainfall
rates of 1-2"/hr are likely, leading to 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts. This may cause instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows rapidly
developing thunderstorms over portions of central Nebraska with
recent hourly MRMS rainfall up to 1.25 inches. This convection is
blossoming in response to increasing convergence along the front
but also on the nose of the SW oriented LLJ which is analyzed via
the SPC RAP to be 30-40 kts just to the southeast. Thermodynamics
across the region are impressive as reflected by PWs as high as
1.9 inches overlapping MLCAPE of as much as 5000 J/kg which will
maintain ample fuel for overnight thunderstorm development.

As the front sags southeast and the LLJ maintains the impressive
downstream moisture advection, thunderstorms will continue to
develop across Nebraska. This is well agreed upon by the available
high-res CAMs, although with differing evolution and intensity. As
storms blossom over Nebraska, they will likely exhibit
backbuilding into the higher instability, and then train northeast
as propagation vectors and mean 0-6km winds align from the SW
parallel to the front. With rainfall rates progged by both the
HREF and REFS to exceed 1"/hr (30-50% chance) this backbuilding
and training will result in corridors of 2-3" of rainfall with
locally higher amounts.

There continues to be some uncertainty as to how convection will
evolve due to pronounced shear (40-50 kts) leading to organization
into clusters or even an MCS. As storms grow upscale, more rapid
eastward progression of cells may occur thanks to outflows within
1000-1500 J/kg of DCAPE. This suggests that the greatest flash
flood risk over the area will be in the next few hours across NE,
rather than farther downstream (both temporally and spatially).
However, 3-hr FFG across Nebraska is higher than into parts of
Iowa and Minnesota, potentially offsetting the flash flood risk
overnight. Still, the backbuilding/training which will likely be
exhibited by convection in the next few hours still indicates at
least an isolated risk for flash flood instances through 08Z.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8rOgk8dnM35QCleM0H0m-d-7K2zWTEzA6fdMuX4czlMasI_BZjj06nV93k9koSBzSfdV= BmeegiN734FiBW7IDNTH_wM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44089505 44029310 43529255 42429421 41739562=20
40979718 40529883 40429967 40570015 40970029=20
41530028 42159875 43059754 43059754 43619668=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 302133
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-010030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0551
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...TX Panhandle into western OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 302130Z - 010030Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms may result in additional areas
of flash flooding across portions of the TX Panhandle into western
OK over the next 2-3 hours. Peak hourly rainfall in excess of 2
inches is expected.

Discussion...2115Z radar imagery showed a small cluster of
thunderstorms over the southeastern TX Panhandle with ongoing
training from Hall into Donley counties. An outflow boundary was
observed just south of the ongoing storms and also advancing
westward into Carson and Armstrong counties. SPC mesoanalysis data
showed MLCAPE of 500 to 1500+ J/kg over the southeastern TX
Panhandle but with more stable air to the south into northwestern
TX where dewpoints were lower. Mean southerly steering flow and
850 mb winds of 20-25 kt may support additional overrunning and
training axes from south to north with peak hourly rainfall of 2+
inches, but the threat might be short lived over the far
southeastern Panhandle as drier air advects in from the south.
Additional localized flash flooding may result over the next 2-3
hours with some westward migration of convection possible along
the advancing outflow.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4gpIZHW0WeFanOnMSPmcrAdlV3sy0QURnldCaXS5bcBklEjo_nas_JtSxCR0HJ6l9w8X= 6geSK97TzW5bMjS52AvQwXI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36150071 36070021 35889975 35499960 35049976=20
34600017 34310054 34210091 34130145 34230211=20
34880214 35480180 35920135=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 010122
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-010615-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0552
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
921 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...western TX into southeastern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010119Z - 010615Z

SUMMARY...An increased threat of flash flooding will develop
across portions of western TX into southeastern NM over the next
3-5 hours. High rain rates of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches in 15 minutes and
storm totals of 2-4 inches are expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing across the Trans
Pecos region of TX into portions of the Permian Basin of
southeastern NM and western TX as of 01Z. The environment as
sampled by the 00Z soundings at MAF and DRT contained
approximately 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch precipitable water
values. Storm motions were relatively weak at 10-15 kt with a
general motion toward the northeast, resulting in a few isolated
regions with MRMS-derived hourly rainfall of 1-2 inches where
short term training and/or mergers were occurring.

Short term RAP forecasts showed the low level jet increasing
through the lower/middle Rio Grande Valley from the SE into the
30-40 kt range. Low level convergence is expected to increase
along the nose of this forecast surge beneath diffluent upper
level flow. In addition to short term training and cell mergers,
alignment of the roughly SSW to NNE oriented low level convergence
axis may result in an increased threat for training convection
from south to north given a similar orientation of the mean
steering flow. Rainfall as high as 0.5 to 1.0 inches (locally
higher) in 15 minutes will be possible along with storm totals of
2 to 4 inches on a localized basis through 06Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5x1y7sloeyDlz1yp_fMc9FJ6Ag3FaKd7A23B0iewQt8d4w0ol8T9nB7Vuzillk4qPuSQ= OfMNN8LdhlaPr-Nc9G_4eiI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...LUB...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33230287 33020235 32080235 31100271 29740273=20
29060313 29040384 29560447 30410464 31930440=20
33070384=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 010247
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-010700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0553
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1046 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010245Z - 010700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand during the next
few hours and then lift steadily northeast across the Texas
Panhandle. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr could create 2-3" of rain
with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows an
expanding cluster of thunderstorms draped generally SW to NE from
the lower Permian Basin to across the Cap Rock and towards
Lubbock. This convection is expanding along the nose of a
strengthening SE oriented LLJ which has reached 30 kts according
to regional VWPs, and just downstream of a vorticity
maxima/shortwave lifting out of New Mexico. Pockets of recent MRMS
measured hourly rainfall has exceeded 1" within this convection
thanks due favorable thermodynamics characterized by PWs of
1.2-1.4 inches along a gradient of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.

As the LLJ strengthens during the next few hours, aided by local
acceleration in the vicinity of the northeast advancing shortwave,
the surge in strength to around 40 kts will continue to drive
convergence along its nose. At the same time, advection of the
impressive thermodynamics will maintain an environment to support
1+"/hr rain rates (30-40% chance from the HREF and REFS). At the
same time, the gradual veering of the LLJ to become more southerly
will cause Corfidi vectors to simultaneously veer to a more
anti-parallel direction to the mean wind, so even though mean
0-6km winds will remain progressive at around 20 kts, backbuilding
and training of cells is expected. This will support corridors of
2-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts possible (20-30%
chance of 3+" in the next 6 hours).

This training of heavy rain rates could support at least isolated
flash flood impacts overnight. However, the threat is somewhat
more elevated since recent rainfall, which in places has been
200-400% of normal in the past 7 days, has led to locally reduced
FFG to just 1.5-2"/3hrs. Any training of heavy rain across these
more vulnerable soils would pose a slightly higher risk for flash
flooding during the next several hours.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-prl4DbF2op35aSkn4N96VO8xAdIN8Wu365lT2M-3N76KBYDn0fdLQgsdxKGquTb7_T0= m1Px-Qi9udHF1L3kE281aYY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...MAF...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36600035 36380004 35999995 35440011 34290064=20
33410126 32800193 32760251 32820302 33060333=20
33560325 34570289 35670225 36410125=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 010715
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-011230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Missouri Valley from central NE
through southwest MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 010713Z - 011230Z

Summary...Convection expanding across Nebraska will advect
northeast overnight with 1-2"/hr rainfall rates. Many areas will
experience multiple rounds of convection leading to 2-4" of rain.
This may cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic shows rapidly expanding
convection across central and northern Nebraska early this
morning. This activity is blossoming in response to dual surface
waves moving along a wavering stationary boundary analyzed by WPC
to create locally enhanced ascent. Lift in the vicinity of the
surface waves is adding to the increasing synoptic lift driven by
the RRQ of a jet streak to the north, as well as improving
isentropic ascent as the LLJ locally backs to the SSW and surges
atop the stationary front. This deep layer lift is acting upon
robust thermodynamics characterized by PWs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches
overlapping a ribbon of 2000-300 J/kg MUCAPE. This has led to
recent hourly rainfall as measured by MRMS as high as 1.5 inches.

The high-res CAMs suggest that the intensity of this convection is
peaking at this hour, and will begin to wane as the waves of low
pressure shift northeast. While this may be the case, the
impressive thermodynamics and locally backed inflow in the
vicinity of the low pressures should allow convection to persist
at a greater intensity beyond current model progs. Both the REFS
and HREF neighborhood probabilities indicate a 60-80% chance of
1"/hr rainfall through daybreak, and although cells should lift
steadily north on mean flow around 30 kts, impressive bulk shear
of 35-45 kts with aligned Corfidi vectors indicate that upscale
organization featuring short term training will result.
Additionally, some areas will receive repeating rounds of
convection, leading to 2-4" of rain.

Parts of this region have been wet recently as evidenced by 7-day
rainfall that has been as much as 400% of normal (highest in
northeast NE through far southern MN) and 24-hr MRMS rainfall of
2-3". This has lowered 3-hr FFG to vulnerable values of just
1.5-2.0 inches. Any short term training of these intense rain
rates could cause flash flood instances through early morning, but
any impacts will be most likely across urban areas or these lower
FFG thresholds.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_oGzpvzJbvB0BmTcE3XbcbsOjwA-2XPUxx8rKlw92tNHsOEayVnXm667O7g4YRc9sUXA= RMTxV-gSY2ZcgtLmXtfxCl8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44919638 44599466 44159378 43839333 43539339=20
43089399 42649483 42279652 42239830 42439999=20
42650119 43750045 44439929 44859802=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 011139
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-011638-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...southern/central Minnesota into western Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011138Z - 011638Z

Summary...Recent radar/MRMS data suggests local FFG exceedance
south of Minneapolis over the past hour. Heavy rainfall and
localized flash flooding is possible for the next few hours
(through at least 16Z/11a central).

Discussion...Deep convection persists on the nose of a very strong
(40-45 kt) 850mb jet over Iowa this morning. Convergence along
the nose of that jet was coincident with an axis of strong
buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) and abundant moisture (1.8+ inch PW),
supporting heavy rainfall within convection forming in the favored
axis. Individual storm motions are fairly quick (around 30-40
knots), although the orientation of the low-level jet was
supporting localized backbuilding, prolonging heavy rainfall in
spots and increasing rain rates to around 2 inches/hr near of I-90
and US 14 between Mankato and Rochester. These rates were locally
exceeding FFG.

The overall regime supporting flash flooding will gradually shift
northeastward in tandem with the LLJ-related convergence axis this
morning. Some concern exists that the Minneapolis/St. Paul metro
area and I-94 corridor could experience heavier rainfall over the
next 2-4 hours. Local FFG in that area is relatively low (less
than 1 inch/hr in/near MSP), and FFG exceedance is possible given
the scenario. Flash flood potential should exist through at least
15-16Z (11a central).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8HnWxyHUdBSPfIJWubgrnE0oLcJQrcoOObylBFdQckug_rr__8Z_9lVnWVOi-SBayfjV= nO5xdurh_4N73si4dVdawiA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...FSD...GRB...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46759163 45578963 44218971 43559189 43729509=20
44579570 45239557 46069466=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 011915
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-020015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0556
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...lower MS Valley to eastern TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011913Z - 020015Z

Summary...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible across portions of the lower MS Valley to eastern
TX into the evening. Sub-hourly rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches in
15 minutes may persist long enough over a given location to allow
for a few 2 to 4+ inch totals through 00Z.

Discussion...19Z radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms
extending from southeastern into south-central LA and far
southwestern MS. The activity was tracking generally toward the
west, located on the south side of a low to mid-level ridge
centered over eastern KY/TN. Wind shear was on the weak side which
should limit organization of cells but the environment was very
moist which will allow for high rain rates. The 18Z LCH sounding
showed 1.9 inch PW values and 2700 J/kg of MLCAPE with deeper
layer mean winds of 10-15 kt from the E to ESE. Wet bulb zero
heights of 14.0-14.5 kft AGL have already contributed to
15-minutes rainfall of 0.5 to 1.0+ inches via MRMS and local gauge
reports from the Wunderground network across portions of southern
LA, mostly south of I-10.

The potential for training, merging and repeating cells will
support high rainfall rates with the potential for hourly rainfall
over 3 inches. However, the limited organization of cells and
potential for a small cluster or two to form and advance WNW in a
more progressive manner should limit overall coverage of flash
flooding should it occur. Given below average rainfall over most
of the region over the past 7-10 days, the threat for flash
flooding should be mostly focused across any urban or otherwise
poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-EQpmG0WbuD7BCDERjeS10OCFuVda_cu8PNg9ULYJJGN8o1ncYKdASBSH4j1nxcUyvaH= vat9yEiezi5_X67mT7KY_Yg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 32669271 32629194 32429143 32029094 30859076=20
29878999 29199029 29049106 29239241 29489375=20
29909420 30759436 31599435 32299415 32659356=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 012143
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-020300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0557
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 012141Z - 020300Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding will
be possible across southeastern NM, through the TX Panhandle into
western KS over the next 3-6 hours. Training echoes are likely to
support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2+ inches with storm totals of 2
to 4+ inches through 03Z.

DISCUSSION...2120Z visible satellite and radar imagery showed the
recent development of thunderstorms from eastern NM into the
western TX Panhandle, just ahead of a dryline which extended from southeastern/eastern NM through the TX/OK panhandles into western
KS where it intersected a quasi-stationary front. Both the dryline
and quasi-stationary front were rather diffuse over western KS.
Additional thunderstorms were expanding in intensity from the
southeastern TX Panhandle and points SSW, just east of the Caprock
Escarpment. The environment over the southern High Plains was
characterized by MLCAPE of 1000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.0 to 1.7
inches (lowest to west), or standardized anomalies of about +1 to
+2. In addition, a remnant MCV was identified near the
southeastern corner of NM, with a slow movement toward the NNE,
colocated with a pocket of stable air..

While thunderstorms are expected to remain largely unorganized in
nature due to limited shear, increasing coverage is expected into
the evening hours within the available, largely uninhibited,
instability reservoir. Ascent will be aided by convectively driven
outflow boundaries, and possibly the MCV as it continues to
advance NNE. Concerns for flash flooding arise due to the presence
of similarly oriented low level and mean layer steering flow from
the S to SW. This could favor areas of training given alignment
with the developing convective orientation from southeastern NM
into western TX and possibly southwestern KS. Hourly rainfall of 1
to 2+ inches and storm totals of 2 to 4+ inches will be possible
through 03Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_yqsmHYJ8yKXrJLQjwbmcnsaY2HS3pUIMqIod8P5iY_tAK6siz6Z1K-t_EFCB3UYqjNR= k4vnFrPYl_5IDBw4XE3Fwig$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GLD...LUB...MAF...OUN...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38660137 38630037 37489987 35279999 33670095=20
32980234 32970359 33390433 33770449 34130440=20
34580409 35510297 37160224 38060184=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 020117
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0558
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
916 PM EDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...eastern NE into northern IA/southern MN and
portions of WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 020114Z - 020645Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase across eastern NE
into northern IA/southern MN and portions of WI through 06Z, with
areas of flash flooding becoming increasingly likely. Training
thunderstorms will support hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with
locally higher values possible.

DISCUSSION...Area radar imagery as of 01Z showed widely scattered
thunderstorms located between the Middle Missouri and Upper
Mississippi Valleys, with an increase in coverage over the past
hour. These storms were occurring near and north of a remnant
outflow boundary related to rainfall from early this morning
(located from south-central WI into north-central IA into central
NE) and a weak synoptic front to the north, aided by subtle low
level confluence/convergence across the MS Valley. Some degree of
height falls was also occurring downstream of the base of an upper
trough advancing across the northern Plains. The 00Z OAX sounding
showed a favorable environment for convection capable of producing
high rainfall rates with 1.8 inch PW values, 2800 J/kg MLCAPE and
weak CIN. The sounding also showed 30-35 kt of effective bulk
shear that increased with northward extent, sufficient for
supercells.

The RAP forecasts an increase in the low level jet (LLJ) into the
30-40 kt range through 06Z across eastern KS into eastern NE. The
orientation of the LLJ is expected to be from the S to SSW into
eastern NE, veering toward the SW and WSW toward WI (albeit weaker
in magnitude toward the MS Valley), around the northwest side of a
strong low to mid-level ridge over KY/TN. Aloft, a strengthening
upper level divergence field is forecast from eastern NE into WI,
within the right-entrance region of a 90-110 jet max centered
across Lake Superior. Mean steering flow oriented mostly parallel
to the initiating boundary will likely yield areas of training and
repeating from WSW to ESE.

While some uncertainty remains with the exact evolution and
coverage of storms over the next few hours, there is increasing
confidence for thunderstorm coverage to increase over the next 2-4
hours. Areas of training will be supportive of hourly rainfall
between 1 and 2 inches, although isolated higher values will be
possible given the environment in place. At least isolated flash
flooding will become likely.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9V9fBYHhMao4UqmcguSboo25-oLBPwumfCInl6DRqQb8cD8TGKzFgySdwqgKnV7KVHjC= 1dSSvmfVdn2D9evRRWYmhmo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GID...GRB...LBF...MKX...MPX...
OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45039070 44838923 44308860 43868862 43179082=20
42399358 41209690 41079869 41429935 42389903=20
43689656 44149445=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 020258
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-020656-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0559
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1057 PM EDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of western KS & southwest NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020256Z - 020656Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are moving over areas
of modest flash flood guidance values. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have been successfully fighting
mid-level capping across western KS as of late as they move to the
northeast ~20 kts. Precipitable water values of 1.5" or so lie
across the area. The thunderstorms lie on the west side of a pool
of 4000+ J/kg of MU CAPE. Effective bulk shear is 30-45 kts.

The environment is favorable for mesocyclones, which could produce
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" in this environment. Cell training is
also possible as the storms are somewhat aligned. The mesoscale
guidance forecasts the storms to persist for a few more hours
before fading. Flash flood guidance values are modest here,
around 2"/3 hours. Isolated to widely scattered flash flooding is
possible.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5YxUF4a-BtPYX8Bd-AqTRMeQ5xS_YJjZ4w2RQl6oDrYR1qnWCiHoTpLJ2apQlT3-kdze= zHz60FRZeFAFjBwPCTYG44M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40300056 40069943 38010101 37820184 38910155=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 020541
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-021140-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0560
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
140 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Midwest & Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020540Z - 021140Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are capable of producing
hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4". Widely
scattered flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...A band of showers and thunderstorms has been edging
south and east across portions of south-central WI towards the
northwestern Mitt of MI with preceding convection continuing to
bubble across the northern portion of the Mitt of MI.=20
Precipitable water values are 1.9-2.1" per GPS data. MU CAPE is
in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts
has been helping to organize the storms while mean 850-400 hPa
winds have led to periods of cell training which have led to
hourly amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" per radar estimates.

The mesoscale guidance shows heavy rain issues continuing into the
morning in the vicinity of the IA/WI/MN border junction but
appears partially reliant on new convection in and near northwest
IA/southeast SD to exist/develop, which has yet to take root and
persist possibly due to a col in the surface wind pattern in that
area. There appears to be a weak wave of low pressure near the
IA/MN border to the south of a deep layer cyclone moving across
south-central Canada which has been acting as the western edge of
organized convective activity instead. Activity across the Lower
Peninsula of MI has also been too sparse in the guidance as of
late. Wherever cell training occurs and/or mesocyclones can
manage to develop, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals
to 4" are possible. Considering the modest flash flood guidance
values, widely scattered flash flooding is possible over the next
several hours.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7x7H_InZl_ClycQPy8GpuN4li1B1incQcjfaMHbhveuSw2KHZgLNtf5uzsZw8E2PuB7W= YfLEGPHH19fZ2RAboBZVX50$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DMX...DTX...GRB...GRR...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44848501 43648368 42798826 42909258 43989431=20
44769018=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 020615
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-021012-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0561
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020612Z - 021012Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rain continue to develop and
generally move northeast across portions of the Central High
Plains. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are expected in spots,
which could lead to isolated flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in and
near northeast CO, southwest NE, and portions of western KS ahead
of a shortwave moving across NM and portions of CO. Precipitable
water values of 0.75-1.5" inhabit the area, with surging values in
eastern CO due to upslope flow. Effective bulk shear of 30-60 kts
is organizing thunderstorms. Outflow boundaries are leading to
occasionally chaotic formations and movements across the area, but
most storms are moving northeast. MU CAPE is 1000-4000 J/kg.

The guidance appears to be underestimating the KS and far eastern
CO activity though its handling of activity near the CO/NE border
appears reasonable. Flash flood guidance values are modest
regionally, which could be an issue as hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
remain possible. This could lead to isolated flash flooding.=20
Confidence is lower than average considering the poor handling of
the KS/far eastern CO activity thus far.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_tIg8aZTGZTYbWZTbfZIgqRaNcy3E3QFBDJzTio43opj15qkOWMonXmMfxDY6GuIjnFk= yyvesdwEWBejDiEZpKreP0Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41670199 40189990 39909871 39629796 38749906=20
38130058 38190194 39020212 40200257 40350362=20
40080514 40510537 41350479=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 020822
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-021319-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0562
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
420 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern NE, & western IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 020819Z - 021319Z

Summary...An outflow boundary from northern KS convection is
helping to set up additional thunderstorm activity within an
unstable airmass. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could lead to flash
flooding.

Discussion...Shortwaves aloft are moving into western KS and
across the border of the Dakotas with MN, helping to aid difluence
aloft. Meanwhile, thunderstorms across northern KS have sent out
an outflow boundary which is helping to spark new convection
across southeast NE where instability is relatively greater. This
thunderstorm activity is not moving particularly quickly to the
northeast. Additional isolated convection is forming in the
vicinity of a weak baroclinic trough near the IA/NE border and the
western MN/IA border. Precipitable water values of 1.6-1.8" exist
here per GPS data. Effective bulk shear is 20-40 kts. MU CAPE is
2000-3500 J/kg.

Rising values of the Galvez-Davison Index past 12z imply
increasing cell coverage in this area as the morning wears on. A
combination of organized and disorganized convection is possible
in this environment which could lead to cell mergers. Deep layer
southwest flow could lead to short periods of cell training. Any
mesocyclones that form could also pose heavy rainfall issues. The
ingredients available support hourly rain amounts to 2.5", which
would be most problematic in urban areas. The modest three hourly
flash flood values could be breached. Any flash flood issues are
expected to be isolated to widely scattered in nature.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6zPSFeoaUOSXrxcObSlNYEh6_LWpYy3v8xbUW3Qw1oAoQlLUjrncqGQW_37cnOCyhHEW= OXVIQH30KBm5-wWpAfCv91Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43939616 43369375 41239579 40079809 40329859=20
41049825 42529781=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 021139
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-021600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0563
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Southern MN...Southern WI...Northeast IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021140Z - 021600Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms with a history of producing flash flooding
will continue this morning for at least a couple more hours.
Additional areas of flash flooding are possible.

DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary oriented WNW-ESE remains the
trigger for thunderstorms that are in a ripe environment to
produce Excessive Rainfall rates. While instability is decreasing
to the north where rain-cooled air is beginning to weaken the
theta-e gradient, along the IA/MN border and into southern WI,
MUCAPE remains solidly in the 1,000-2,000 J/kg range. PWs are also
between 1.8-2.0", thus placing them around or slightly above the
90th climatological percentile. 925mb winds over western IA are
oriented not quite orthogonal to the outflow boundary, but the
ongoing theta-e and MUCAPE gradient remains in place per RAP
mesoanalysis and these 925mb winds will continue to run into the
outflow boundary in a manner that helps to sustain ongoing
convection. Doppler Radar shows storms flaring up on the western
flank of the outflow boundary over northwest IA that could head
east into southeast MN and northeast IA this morning. With the
favorable meteorological parameters mentioned above, this provides
an optimal environment for at least a couple more hours worth of
Excessive Rainfall along the MN/IA border and into southern WI.

The gradual southward propagation of the outflow boundary is
likely to cause storms to form over northeast IA, including
training storms possible within the highlighted region. MRMS
15-minute rainfall rates have surpassed 0.5" at times in southwest
MN, suggesting at least 2"/hr rainfall rates have occurred within
the strongest storms. Some locations in southeast MN have already
received over 3" of rain between 08-11Z. Eventually, the rain
cooled air to the north and slightly cooler temps prior to strong
daytime heating to the south should start to weaken the theta-e
gradient and 925mb winds will relax by late morning, causing
storms to gradually dissipate. Until then, storms will likely
linger through mid-morning with storms producing around 2"/hr
rainfall rates (max rates up to 2.5"/hr). Many locations within
the highlighted threat area sport 1-hr FFGs that are as low as 2".
Given these reasons, additional areas of flash flooding are
possible this morning.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4e44PI4iMstgpRREDs5wrfsd0Lg9QkFsZcAvFSNNRVJMboPwLzF1-hkuNlW9F9mXlWF_= BWnuCxoXvD-0zqNYnqP1xnk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44049217 44039165 43999120 43969095 43819016=20
43708951 43398908 43138897 42878902 42708915=20
42648928 42618962 42719035 42799131 42729208=20
42679293 42699336 42669367 42689389 42749429=20
43039426 43239426 43409419 43749389 44009307=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 021821
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-030020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0564
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Western TX & Southern NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021820Z - 030020Z

SUMMARY...Afternoon thunderstorms containing hourly rainfall rates
up to 1.5"/hr could cause flash flooding in the mountainous
terrain of western TX and southern NM.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows cumulus clouds bubbling over
the Davis, Guadalupe, and Sacramento Mountains. Aside from some
wispy high cirrus aloft, surface based heating will continue to
help increase the cumulus field to the point where thunderstorms
develop in a couple hours. RAP mesoanalysis shows up to 1.25" PWs
over the Davis Mountains with PWs closer to 1.5" over
Midland/Odessa. MLCAPE will range between 500-1,000 J/kg later
this afternoon, which combined with the available PWs would
support max rainfall rates around 1.5"/hr.

1-hr FFGs in parts of the Davis Mountains are as low as 1.5" in
some cases, and the Sacramento Mountains remain susceptible to
flash flooding in burn scars and along complex terrain. Storms are
highly dependent upon diurnal heating, so storms will dissipate
not long after sunset. Until then, storms forming over the higher
terrain of southern NM and West TX could cause localized areas of
flash flooding this afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9AR6EM8gL5Ku8thmo_1qFw8aFKZPKHPwkBR071_Hh5OjLoq6fmcY__W6IxOEvM9tgMVL= iOhNeMDUGdgwAwYGjwTlzME$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34110416 33090354 32140360 31270293 29900261=20
29350250 28830305 28830351 29140432 29790482=20
30550514 31500531 32030590 33650594 34080542=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 021934
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-030030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0565
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...IA into southern MN and southwestern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 021931Z - 030030Z

SUMMARY...Areas of training are expected to setup across portions
of IA into southwestern WI. Some overlap into southeastern MN will
also be possible, including portions of the MS Valley that
received heavy rain over the past 24 hours. Additional rainfall
totals from IA into WI are expected to be in the 2-4 inch range
through 00Z, but locally higher totals will also be possible.

DISCUSSION...19Z surface observations and visible satellite
imagery showed an outflow boundary extending from near the WI/IL
border, westward into central IA. Thunderstorms with embedded
training were ongoing over northeastern IA, along and north of the
outflow, but mostly south of a portion of southeastern MN into
southwestern WI which received 3 to 6+ inches of rain over the
past 24 hours. A remnant MCV was also identified near the SD/IA
border, and enhanced southerly flow to the east of the MCV center
is likely aiding ascent atop the outflow boundary in west-central
IA.

The 18Z DVN sounding showed ~2400 J/kg MLCAPE and a PW of 1.5
inches. A little farther north, strong MLCAPE of 2000 to 3500 J/kg
was estimated via 19Z SPC mesoanalysis data, extending from
southwestern into eastern IA with little to no inhibition. While
the MCV was located within a pocket of stable air and moving ENE,
some further contribution to convective development is anticipated
over portions of west-central/central IA. Meanwhile, a
strengthening low level jet of 20 to 30 kt is expected to provide
ascent atop the remnant outflow from central/eastern IA into
southwestern WI, with areas of training thunderstorms through the
remainder of the afternoon into the evening.

While the majority of additional rainfall through 01Z is expected
to remain south of the observed heavy rain footprint from
southeastern MN and eastward, there will remain high potential for
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches (locally higher) due to training
in the vicinity of the outflow boundary. These rates are likely to
produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) from
portions of IA into southwestern WI along with areas of flash
flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7UJyT13nRK60e6iZ2bjYetpX2FHQGW2Bziux2e0P3P40JiNtbzy6xidNe2hfTSlgYqRi= oSiKvsCEWhLTeB3-E-ZPheI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43709097 43659024 43608955 43408902 43088889=20
42608898 42329098 41779314 41769459 41959529=20
42589553 43169395 43599209=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 030034
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-030530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0566
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
833 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...IA into southern WI/northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 030031Z - 030530Z

SUMMARY...Training and repeating thunderstorms will likely
maintain concerns for flash flooding over portions of central IA,
possibly extending into southwestern WI/northwestern IL through
06Z. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches and additional totals of 2
to 4 inches are expected (locally higher rates/totals possible).

DISCUSSION...00Z radar imagery showed a region of training and
repeating thunderstorms over east-central IA, located between Des
Moines, Waverly and Cedar Rapids. Peak hourly rainfall has been
generally been between 1 and 2 inches (locally higher) via MRMS
and local gauge observations within this region of convection. An
outflow boundary was analyzed south of the ongoing thunderstorms
from central IA into northwestern IL and southern WI. This
boundary was steadily advancing toward the southeast along the MS
River Valley, but was stalled to the west into western IA. A
region of strong MLCAPE, ranging from 2000 to 3500+ J/kg, existed
south of the outflow boundary across the southern half of IA into
northern IL via 00Z SPC mesoanalysis data and the 00Z DVN sounding.

VAD wind data showed 925-850 mb winds were from the S to SW at
15-25 kt from KS/MO northward into NE/IA, but these speeds are
forecast by the RAP to increase overnight, especially across
western locations near the MO River Valley. Forecast low level
winds of 30-35 kt are expected by 06Z from eastern NE into western
IA. Given the presence of the stalled outflow, overrunning of the
rain-cooled air should maintain a threat for training and
repeating thunderstorms over the next several hours over portions
of central to eastern IA. Back to the west, there is some
uncertainty with regard to development and coverage of convection
into portions of western IA through 06Z, but recent runs of the
RRFS have been hinting at this idea. Hourly rainfall of 1 to 2
inches (locally higher) and additional storm totals of 2 to 4+
inches should continue a threat for flash flooding over the next
3-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6O_wuu5POFs0xKxYgk_bDe8dPfRpZcRhWGbGgMGXXZBc0Rn_qCOX_L0zIS8C-6iZL7Ob= 4vx0GjTpR8sxAQkk29sOcgQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...LOT...MKX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43079144 43059022 42938931 42758871 42458847=20
42058858 41388915 41119081 41359394 42009556=20
42609570 42919499 42899291=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 030238
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-030815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0567
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1037 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...eastern SD/NE border into southwestern
MN/northwestern IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030236Z - 030815Z

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage is expected across
portions of the eastern SD/NE border into northwestern IA and
southwestern MN. 2 to 4+ inch totals may occur with hourly rates
of 1 to 2 inches. Flash flooding will be possible in a few areas
given wet soils from recent heavy rains.

DISCUSSION...At 02Z, a weakening, forward propagating MCS was
advancing across southwestern MN, with a related outflow boundary
ahead of the existing thunderstorms, extending southwestward into
northern NE. Outflow propagation was quicker along its
northeastern flank over MN compared to the southwestern flank over
northern NE. The environment contained strong instability to the
south of the advancing outflow in NE, near or in excess of 3000
J/kg MLCAPE via 02Z SPC mesoanalysis data and the 00Z sounding
from OAX. Also of note on radar imagery, scattered thunderstorms
were observed over southern NE, near and south of I-80 in the
vicinity of North Platte.

Lift ahead of subtle upstream mid-level impulses within the
southwesterly flow and a forecast for an increasing southerly low
level jet (40-50 kt at 850 mb by 06Z via RAP guidance) should aid
in convective expansion across northeastern NE/southeastern SD and
points eastward over the next few hours. While the airmass over
southeastern SD has stabilized in the wake of the earlier MCS,
northward advection of low level moisture is expected to
destabilize locations to the north of the present outflow location
in NE by 05/06Z. Also of note is the southward advancing outflow
over northern NE and approaching convective activity over southern
NE. Merging of these two features may yield an increase in
coverage by 06Z

As convection increases later tonight, a mean easterly movement of
cells is expected which should allow for some areas of training
due to the orientation of the initiating boundary/boundaries. The
moist environment with PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches and ample
instability will be capable of hourly rainfall between 1 and 2
inches (locally higher possible) within areas of training. While
there is some uncertainty in the coverage and timing of heavy
rain, given the low flash flood guidance values over northeastern
NE into southwestern MN and strong instability values, storm
development could be rapid once it occurs. At least localized
flash flooding appears possible through 08Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6oTD5zMTY0Q_aj0j86TKHL_FT9R-D6I_v2b5Hcxe-jrEkemNpIhITGjWlcoMcF5CUa56= OUbDtDa_eE5CtFvhOHkca6U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...LBF...MPX...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44069483 44049368 43859316 43499298 43419295=20
42909309 42319407 42129521 41959678 41829812=20
42439879 42739975 43269982 43419880 43759738=20
43949593=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 030242
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-030800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0568
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1041 PM EDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeast IL & southwest MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030240Z - 030800Z

Summary...Two rounds of heavy rainfall are possible from Chicago
into southwest MI overnight. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...An outflow boundary is moving southeast through
Chicago, which has helped invigorate a narrow convection band
across northeast IL with cooling cloud tops which is about to move
into southwest MI. It has formed near a thermal gradient within a
zone of persistent 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water values
are 1.5-1.8" per GPS data. MU CAPE is 2000-4000 J/kg near and
ahead of the convective band. Effective bulk shear is 30-40 kts.

There is a modest signal in the mesoscale guidance for this
activity, mostly from recent HRRR runs and the 18z Canadian
Regional guidance. Both the 12z REFS and 18z HREF have some
signal for heavy rainfall here, from this initial convective band
and then from an incoming outflow boundary moving across southwest
WI currently. With indications of two convective rounds within
the next 5-6 hours, and given the available ingredients, hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" appear possible,
which would be problematic in urban areas.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6c67donSTTercIZQbsbkegKfRMKJowYGuOjWFvVSTKGnk3KZbcAm0raxbrG-2sp8_B1g= JNysv8C2YXypZEMqaE7yL_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43268593 43108444 41858604 41228867 41608944=20
42418827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 030421
FFGMPD
NEZ000-030720-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0569
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1220 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of southwest NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030420Z - 030720Z

Summary...A warm advection convective band appears to have formed
ahead of a mesocyclone across portions of southwest NE. Hourly
rain amounts to 2.5" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A band of convection across southwest NE appears to
be training somewhat ahead of a mesocyclone across portions of
southwest NE. Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.75" lie here.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-35 kts is helping to organize the band.
MU CAPE of near 4000 J/kg is sustaining updrafts. Temperatures
at 700 hPa suggest that mid-level capping should not be
prohibitive in this region.

The mesoscale guidance suggests this convection should have mostly
died by now, but it has not. Veering winds at 850 hPa suggest
that the convective area should forward propagate/shift eastward
with time. Until it can either weaken, forward propagate as a
convective arc, and/or stop training, hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
could lead to flash flooding. Used a three hour horizon due to
the uncertainty here.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_t_Jce-XYvlqRiAmKFgVMQQsgqR2WeOaX_9kt8i5ySH1_i293g8CzX9EnPZjdU8_yxYK= _KAMPEDMcrklGUMnfOgqpKM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41149900 40549865 40199987 40200097 40460110=20
40900020=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 030531
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-031130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0570
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
130 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...in and near southern SD, northeast NE, & IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030530Z - 031130Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rain could lead to hourly
amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 5" through 1130z across
portions of SD, NE, & IA. Widely scattered to scattered instances
of flash flooding are possible over saturating soils.

Discussion...Convection across western SD has been propagating
southeast, forced forward by an outflow boundary and reducing
instability in its vicinity. To the east-southeast, thunderstorms
across northern NE have been expanding in coverage while showing
minimal movement partially enhanced by an outflow boundary moving
in from the southwest. Other convection in IA has shown
occasional training character. Precipitable water values of
1.5-2" lie in the region. MU CAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg is sustaining
updrafts. Effective bulk shear is 25-45 kts, leading to
convective organization.

Convection from southern SD moving in from the west-northwest
along with a forming cold pool under the northeast NE convection
should join forces and lead to forward propagation of the
northeast NE convection, ending cell training from west-northwest
to east-southeast across this area with time. In the meantime,
cell training and mergers along with occasional mesocyclones are
expected to cause hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with additional
local totals to 5" into the early morning. Some spots in the MPD
area could end up accumulating 10" of rain for the month of July
by 1130z. Flash flood guidance values are modest to low due to
the recent rains. Widely scattered to scattered instances of
flash flooding are possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6L1dJIT7gkRWv8x_0PbCIAsGFi3afE9Cx2sQnBKsLbgb5-L249gIKuAjND2jYmGUlh_S= SV4MJB69K87qvmi5P1ll-NE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...ILX...LBF...MKX... MPX...OAX...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44280194 44169943 43719615 42938985 40439063=20
40779359 41999795 43270192=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 030713
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-031112-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0571
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
312 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of the NE/CO border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030712Z - 031112Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have reconsolidated near and
east of a wave of low pressure. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are
possible over the next several hours.

Discussion...Return flow in the wake of forward propagating
convection has led to a convective renaissance from northeast CO
into southwest NE, which is not being handled especially well by
the mesoscale guidance. Precipitable water values are 1-1.5". MU
CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is aiding updrafts. Effective bulk shear
is 25-40 kts which is leading to convective organization.

Whatever signal exists in the mesoscale guidance allows for some
northward nudge over the next few hours before convection is
forecast to fade. Slowly veering low-level winds should signal
for some eastward shift of the convective pattern with time,
perhaps as another batch of forward propagating thunderstorms.=20
Where cells manage to merge, train, or mesocyclones manage to
form, hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible. This would exceed
the flash flood guidance in the area and be a problem for recently
saturated soils. Uncertainty is greater than average here due to
the poor handling of the forecast here by the mesoscale guidance
overnight.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85-m_JrFXZqaRDLETIFxVQvVarRUnn2_PjTw39LK3pclhQFU2yT1SmEm6boEJe6XVmd4= gywYoweMeh1eQdg8tShBt4E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41470148 41020007 40000042 40540201 40520377=20
41050357 41430293=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 031114
FFGMPD
IAZ000-031511-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0572
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
713 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031111Z - 031511Z

Summary...A couple of thunderstorm complexes will continue to pose
a flash flood risk for a few hours this morning.

Discussion...Ongoing convective complexes across western through
central Iowa continue to produce heavy rainfall (rates above 1
inch/hr in spots) across the discussion area this morning. The
convection is propagating slowly eastward, with local backbuilding
noted just northeast of Des Moines Metro. These cells have a
history of local impacts in/near Des Moines this morning, and
local FFG is likely low area-wide (less than 1-1.5 inch/hr) due to
ongoing rainfall.

The maintenance of ongoing convective complexes will likely be
tied to the strength of the low-level jet into that area
(currently around 30 knots out of the southwest at 850mb). This
low-level jet is progged to weaken through the morning hours, and
attendant low-level convergence will weaken along with it.
Convective coverage (and flash flood potential) should decrease -
though this process will likely take a few hours to unfold.=20
Abundant buoyancy/PW and the aforementioned LLJ will likely
maintain convection through at least 15Z/10a this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9GVawsJnm11RtOwLUM9EU6FNiIJJd1vdiVwLa15_-oDm23DPLe-aSgl4CtN4kQU5_eQn= qn7HA_cgWrIkO1Hnd2bhM4E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42829282 42249088 40839171 40719505 41829543=20
42549475=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 031134
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-031500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0573
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
733 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...far southern Nebraska, far northern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031133Z - 031500Z

Summary...An isolated flash flood risk continues with a small
convective complex near the Nebraska/Kansas border just northwest
of Phillipsburg.

Discussion...A small convective complex has produced several areas
of 2-6 inch rainfall totals over far southwest Nebraska over the
past 6 hours (estimated per MRMS). That complex has shown a
tendency to pickup a bit of forward speed in the last hour of so,
but is still producing areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates that could
pose an isolated flash flood risk generally between I-80 and US 36
between Lexington and Oberlin. The storms are being maintained by
very steep lapse rates aloft (above 8C/km) and a stout low-level
jet (45 kts from the SSW) oriented favorably orthogonal to the
southern edge of an established cold pool in the region, favoring
updraft/MCS maintenance in the short term.

The ongoing flash flood risk may be short lived, however. Storms
are gradually moving toward areas that have been slightly drier
and have higher local FFGs. Additionally, the southwesterly LLJ
is expected to weaken through the morning hours, lessening
convergence into the region. This process may take a few hours to
unfold though. Isolated flash flood potential will exist through
around 14Z/9a central this morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5xiZVy5v-FaSXwtnmraliJynEYLt_-JWWWP4NWqq94ndNAO3YgZJ3abyBXNUoMXvfrFi= AyH3dcCNWOYwJgaJcEGj9nc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41089945 40959843 40199801 39419854 38910034=20
39170123 40190140 40760085=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 031152
FFGMPD
SDZ000-031450-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0574
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
751 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of western/central South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031150Z - 031450Z

Summary...Local FFG exceedance is possible over parts of the
discussion area for at least a couple hours this morning.

Discussion...A small, west-to-east oriented band of convection has
materialized between Pierre and Rapid City over the past hour or
so. This band was slow-moving and oriented favorably for local
training given weak westerly flow aloft (around 20-30 knots at
500mb). Additionally, local radar suggest that a cold pool has
materialized that is oriented perpendicular to around 20-25 kt
southeasterly low-level flow. These factors, along with very
steep lapse rates aloft (~8C/km) suggests potential for
maintenance of this convective band for at least a couple hours.=20 Furthermore, the band is occurring near areas that have experience
recent heavy rainfall, and FFG thresholds (less than 1 inch/hr)
are being exceeded on a spotty basis with ongoing storms.

The potential maintenance of this band suggests local flash flood
potential for at least a couple of hours this morning (through
14Z/9a central). Convective trends will be monitored for any
potential thereafter -- while low-level flow should weaken in this
area (lessening low-level convergence), steep lapse rates aloft
and subtle shortwave troughs aloft traversing the region may aid
in isolated convective development after 14Z. This risk is
conditional, however.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_AU7csp_85Bz8mX8FJw39eaRExsv7dD9Wp88Ycv1JiObx_STJ-Vn3paMNFe67Bm4TdXX= 928VCNyRwB-HBwQt9V776-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45280173 44970049 44240007 43520104 43930298=20
44980314=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 031455
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-032053-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0575
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1053 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...western/central South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031453Z - 032053Z

Summary...Convection persists across the discussion area, with
locally heavy rainfall noted along and just north of an expansive
outflow boundary across the region. Flash flooding remains
possible on an isolated basis.

Discussion...Scattered convection has persisted across the
discussion area along and north of an outflow boundary
subjectively analyzed to extend from near the MT/WY/SD border
southeastward through Rapid City and eastward toward the SD/NE
border near Valentine. Convection is currently outperforming much
of the model guidance in this region, and remains tied to several
factors, including 1) a broad cold pool that continues to be
reinforced by deep convection/rainfall across the discussion area,
2) weak mid/upper waves from the northern Rockies (including one
centered over southeastern MT) providing ascent aloft to support
updrafts, and 3) very unstable air aloft (8-8.5C mid-level lapse
rates) that continue to move over the region via advection
processes.

While the persistence of convection across the discussion area is
a bit uncertain, ongoing trends (including towering cumulus and
lightning in southeastern MT) suggest that at least isolated
convection will extend potentially into the early afternoon hours
even amid weakening low-level flow in areas along the periphery of
the cold pool. Furthermore, with locally heavy rainfall occurring
over areas of low FFG (between 0-1 inch/hr in many areas), it
appears that flash flooding will remain a possibility through the
afternoon on an isolated basis as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9_ndDjJ6lxhl9nQ1-qVzOisSmVuqForbHNLH56RG4i_IA07UUVIi0meXCxQ4bbTNabxX= tT8zKlabgwUWN-WeiWum4vc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...FSD...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 45630255 44970029 44089936 43209949 42890048=20
43210263 43920378 45520392=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031523
FFGMPD
FLZ000-031922-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1122 AM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...urban areas of southeast Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031522Z - 031922Z

Summary...Deepening 'sea-breeze' convection was producing locally
heavy rainfall over Miami-Date Metro and surrounding areas. Flash
flooding is possible.

Discussion...Recent radar/satellite observations depict deep
convection firing along a sea-breeze boundary along the
southeastern Florida coast. The storms were forming in a very
moist/unstable environment, with 2+ inch PW values supporting
efficient rainfall processes and locally heavy rain rates. These
rates were occurring over urbanized ground conditions across
Miami/Ft. Lauderdale and surrounding areas. Spotty 1 inch/hr rain
rates were noted per MRMS data -- enough to cause concern for
urban flash flooding on an isolated basis in the near term.

While weak forcing (outside of the sea-breeze) suggests some
uncertainty on the persistence and longevity of the developing
flash flood risk, it appears that the threat should persist
through at least 19Z/3p eastern. Much of this risk will depend on recovery/destabilization along the sea-breeze in the wake of
ongoing convection. Flash flooding is possible in this regime.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7JpwHRQwUyTalBYti7Xxkug98IICxUGdD2ajqw2izo5D6BqXCcbYdpEysE6phnnrxd4B= GjeYq4r-5pcO3XdM6EnnX7I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 27068022 26437998 25618020 25258051 25438079=20
26168055 26488046=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 031704
FFGMPD
INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-032102-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0577
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
103 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Illinois and
southeastern Wisconsin

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031702Z - 032102Z

Summary...A brief/short-fused flash flood risk is apparent across
northeastern Illinois and vicinity through 1930Z.

Discussion...An ongoing, forward-propagating line of storms was
moving at ENE at approx 30 knots. This line extended along/just
west of I-39 from Janesville to Princeton/Peru. Rain rates with
this activity were modest (around 0.5-0.8 inch/hr), suggestive of
low flash flood potential in the short term.

Of somewhat higher concern is the development of additional cells
ahead of this line across northeastern IL. Some of these cells are
already exhibiting lightning and will likely move eastward at a
slower pace, increasing the risk of mergers and increasing rain
rates as convection matures. Additionally, the evolving
line/cluster was moving toward 1) urban areas near Chicago and
Milwaukee and 2) areas that received 1-3 inches of rainfall and
prior flash flood impacts near Aurora, Chicago, and south of
DeKalb overnight. FFGs across these areas are still low (0-1
inch/hr), suggesting that the local area may not have recovered
from the earlier rainfall. A brief uptick in flash flood
potential is possible in the 18-19Z timeframe (1-2p central)
across the discussion area as a result.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4oj5dgxU9QXpL6QY6ishVy9Ma56vllnc3ZLiaBQNov1c7p-uQkG6q-YynB1RrVPh0wDi= TE2GXQJtzO0_mT0oNjUX-dU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43358792 42238731 41408740 41158868 41288927=20
42058875 43168852=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 032150
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-040130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0578
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
549 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032149Z - 040130Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will linger into the
evening hours across portions of the Mid-South. Additional areas
of flash flooding may be possible from thunderstorms with locally
extreme rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows strong
thunderstorms with very cold convective tops impacting portions of
the middle TN down through northern AL. The convection which is
largely a mix of pulse and multi-cell convection and is near the
overall position of a deep layer ridge is being aided by a moist
and unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE values of 2000 to
3000 J/kg and PWs near 2.0 inches.

Multiple convectively enhanced outflow boundaries and some
localized orographics are playing a role in the regeneration and
persistence of the activity while interacting with the favorable
thermodynamic environment. Colliding outflow boundaries will tend
to favor areas of addition cell development going into the early
evening hours before sufficient boundary layer stabilization
occurs to allow for the convection to weaken.

At least for the next few hours, expect areas of additional heavy
showers and thunderstorms with rainfall rates as high as 2 to 3
inches/hour, and perhaps a few spotty 3 to 4 inch totals. This is
supported by a consensus of the latest HREF and REFS guidance.
These rains will largely pose an isolated urban flash flooding
threat.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7vixMoiNFj31o6o8GoJOqseXMggBcmW1BkaB3AOe1PI2hQYpKGEeEJ0LWgnQTzjA6UHs= 01_cP83YB29wA07hSVzPtYQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37088685 36718596 35308612 34718585 33918552=20
33538672 34008816 34938876 35858874 36768806=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 032244
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-040400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0579
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
643 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Central/Eastern MN...Northern WI...U.P. of MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032243Z - 040400Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
tend to increase in coverage over the next few hours across areas
of central/eastern MN through northern WI and the U.P. of MI.
Relatively slow cell-motions and and high rainfall rates will pose
a localized concern for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a frontal zone
draped across portions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region. This coupled with a moist and moderately unstable airmass
pooling along it is beginning to focus the development and
expansion of heavy showers and thunderstorms across areas of
central/eastern MN through northern WI and into the U.P. of MI.

MLCAPE values are on the order of 1500 to 2500 J/kg, with PWs of
1.5 to 1.75 inches. The arrival of low-amplitude upstream
shortwave energy will favor some modest larger scale ascent which
will interact with this moisture and instability to help
facilitate additional upscale coverage of convection going into
the evening hours. Relatively focused areas of convection that may
be slow-moving are expected along the aforementioned front and
also with aid of localized orographics.

Rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms are
expected, and with some of the slow cell-motions and localized
training concerns, there may be a few locations that see rainfall
totals of 3 to 4+ inches. This is generally supported by a
consensus of the latest hires models and satellite/radar trends.
Overall, this will support a localized concern for flash flooding
going into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4qdhwNbE9ttMBM6ojmGje0w4YO9JeH7MoHfIKHAJxGDj1nAR7SZY2nlysTERkpFzv8rC= U4hav8KZETqbJYVXWNHUzLg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...ARX...DLH...FGF...GRB...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47889492 47799333 47419225 46929128 46578957=20
46588729 46318562 45888560 45738611 45568711=20
45218853 45399114 45729303 46189457 46859562=20
47459575=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 032319
FFGMPD
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-040515-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0580
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
718 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Northern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 032318Z - 040515Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will
continue through the evening hours. Locally high rainfall rates
will be a concern, and this coupled with some slow cell-motions
will foster a concern for isolated areas of flash flooding over
the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Relatively divergent flow aloft interacting with a
combination of a front draped across portions of the High Plains
and strong thermodynamics will maintain a threat for scattered
areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms going through the evening
hours. The latest radar trends have been showing some uptick in
convective initiation/expansion across areas of eastern MT down
through eastern WY/western SD and into northwest NE.

MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg remain in place for much of the
region, and as low-amplitude shortwave energy arrives along with
some favorable shear profiles this evening, the ongoing areas of
convection may tend to expand a bit more in coverage with some
localized supercell thunderstorm activity possible. This combined
with the seasonably moist environment will favor rainfall rates
with some of the stronger thunderstorms of 1 to 2 inches/hour.
Despite there likely being some hail contamination within these
thunderstorms, the relatively slow-moving and organized nature of
the storms will potentially yield excessive rainfall totals that
may reach 2 to 4 inches.

Some orographic enhancement of the rainfall is possible near areas
of elevation and especially near the Black Hills where there has
already been a couple of rounds of thunderstorms over the last
couple of hours. The additional rainfall potential going through
this evening will support an isolated threat of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_jUy_XqFGtIgo_mPKTuPA5fNpI_YG8ZnQIVCyuJuK3XhSFfaE36OE55cpS58CLOKKg5= 80pyYgW8GHk7QPa0y6M-eZE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...BYZ...CYS...GGW...LBF...UNR...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 48370604 48160460 47050358 45700261 44940144=20
44250063 42990054 42120185 42130339 42510413=20
43730518 44250554 44870630 45400752 46540777=20
47910712=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040006
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-040600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0581
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern IA...Northern IL...Southwest Lower
MI...Northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040005Z - 040600Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, including
some potential urban impacts, will be possible going into the
overnight hours as a new round of heavy showers and thunderstorms
arrives.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E IR satellite imagery is showing a
cooling convective cloud-top cluster over eastern IA that will be
moving across northern IL over the next few hours. This
small-scale MCS has been slowly growing upscale over the last
hour, and is expected to advance downstream in close proximity to
a long-lived outflow boundary that was produced by convection
earlier in the day.

Some uptick in warm air advection ahead of this convective cluster
interacting with this mesoscale boundary along with the pooling of
very moist and unstable air will likely favor some additional
increase in convective coverage and organization this evening, and
especially since there will be the arrival of modest,
low-amplitude shortwave energy from upstream.

MLCAPE values near and just south of the outflow boundary are as
high as 2500 to 3500 J/kg, and PWs are near 2 inches. This
environment will support very high rainfall rates easily into the
2 to 3 inch/hour range with the stronger convective cores. As
such, the shear is relatively modest, but sufficient to support
relatively organized convection going into the overnight hours in
conjunction with the upstream energy arriving.

The latest multi-model hires CAMs are in terrible agreement with
the overall details of the rainfall potential, but the latest
satellite/radar trends and overall environment would support some
spotty 3 to 4 inch totals being possible. The region is relatively
sensitive from recent rainfall with rather low FFG values, and
especially over northern IL. So, these additional rains overnight
may yield at least some isolated to scattered areas of flash
flooding which may include some potential for urban impacts as
well.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7zPM-v6_K5muM9pTDyI0afLDwmwOl8zZvfdEhSlyHOgeYF6GDmXB-Tyw_vBb-RnV3QN_= jEC7qBrU6NFRFQwDYMsJl4Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...GRR...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42498860 42358684 42098541 41508482 40988506=20
40698597 40488803 40589022 40989154 41599165=20
42199109 42449006=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040052
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-040650-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0582
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
850 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northern KS...Southern and Eastern
NE...Southwest to Central IA...Far Northwest MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040050Z - 040650Z

SUMMARY...Increasingly organized areas of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will likely produce scattered areas of flash
flooding tonight.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with regional radar shows an organizing arc of convection across
areas of north-central KS and into far southern NE, with separate
more disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity noted over
eastern NE and parts of southwest IA.

Most of the activity is tending to grow upscale in close proximity
to a long-lived outflow boundary/front that remains draped across
northern KS and extends well to the east across sizable areas of
the Midwest. The airmass pooled along this boundary is very
unstable and quite moist, with MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000+ J/kg
across northern KS to southeast NE and PWs near 1.75 inches.

Over the next several hours, ejecting shortwave energy from the
central High Plains coupled with an increasing southwest low-level
jet should favor an increase in the coverage and intensity of
heavy showers and thunderstorms. Strong MCS activity is expected
in time, and there will be concerns for localized backbuilding and
training of convective cells.

Rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour are expected with the more
organized and deeper convective cores, with some rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches possible going through 06Z (1AM CDT). The latest
hires consensus of CAMs, led in particular by the 18Z REFS,
suggest areas of southeast NE will tend to be the focus for the
heaviest rainfall. However, the latest radar/satellite data does
support areas of north-central KS also seeing rather heavy
rainfall potential over just the next few hours alone. Eventually
this activity is expected to advance downstream and also impact
areas of southwest to central IA, and potentially far northwest MO.

Given the environmental setup, and the high rainfall rates/storm
potential tonight, scattered areas of flash flooding are likely to
materialize.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Uyrj0V8Co-y7B8EQQxfCEHZs7yQqivp5sRHJS0N8lTnUjBXk9tKXtwgbzrpYrGXey15= pPu659L4q2gGa5DVShAStWQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DMX...EAX...FSD...GID...GLD...ICT...OAX...
TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42569467 42409342 41839302 41149336 40419466=20
39709585 39309654 38739782 38489975 38650078=20
39290108 39950065 40949901 41759777 42339640=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040231
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-040529-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0583
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1029 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...portions of OH & PA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040229Z - 040529Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across eastern OH and portions
of PA could lead to hourly rain amounts to 2" and local totals to
4" before they fade. This could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...An MCV moving north of the region is helping to drive thunderstorms with heavy rainfall into a more unstable air mass.=20
While the convection is outflow dominant, higher instability in
advance of the system has led to new development. Precipitable
water values of 1.5-1.7" lie across the area. Effective bulk
shear is about 20 kts which appears to be leading to some level of
convective organization. MU CAPE of ~3000 J/kg is sustaining
updrafts.=20

The 12z REFS has a reasonable handle on this activity, and
forecasts it to fade as it moves across eastern OH and western PA.
Since it is moving into a more unstable environment, instability
isn't the problem. CIN has already developed which thus far has
not led to any weakening of this activity, and 700 hPa
temperatures are more or less the same in its path, which implies
mid-level capping isn't increasing and acting as a negative
factor. Should the MCV to the north weaken out of existence, it's
possible that the REFS could be correct. The signal for this
activity completely fades in 2-3 hours in the REFS, however. Will
use a 3 hour window as a precaution. Flash flooding is possible
as long as semi-organized convection can persist. Confidence in
this scenario is below average.

Roth=20

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-LkPYc_ApXwTkGdzRW5xoTScKphTv1koKWb-emPVTlUeiW8PJDTingJiiH92pn31JJ97= 7sL16JKn8InMY8NsqGvdcLI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41418030 41257951 40497870 40178002 40658126=20
41078073=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040353
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-040951-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 PM EDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...IN/OH border with MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040351Z - 040951Z

Summary...Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving into
southwest MI. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals to
4" are possible. This could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A mesoscale wave of low pressure across southern Lake
Michigan has led to a significant increase of MU CAPE across
southern MI and northwest OH over the past couple of hours, with
decreasing amounts of CIN noted in SPC mesoanalyses. This region
is also within a zone of persistent confluence at 850 hPa. MU
CAPE to the south is 3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 20-30
kts. Thunderstorms are growing in coverage across southwest Lower
Michigan, with cooling cloud tops apparent on satellite imagery.

The 00z HREF/REFS guidance (using the 0.5"+ probabilities as a
guide) are not doing particularly well on this new development.=20
However, the REFS itself has a better possible pattern than the
HREF, even if its signal appears too weak. With spotty 1"+ radar
estimates in an hour already apparent, and given the ingredients
above, hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" with local totals of 4" are
possible where cells can manage to train or merge overnight. This
could lead to flash flooding.=20=20=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5p40opc08KONlAoh9EuGEy4gph5GyaSZ20GHPYlS-UuBQsgQPfpvaPW-OJSBgcHQgsWW= wcPqpf1SLbaVhfXayX5ords$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42698657 42688467 42498258 41308333 41198579=20
41258796 41938760=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040454
FFGMPD
ILZ000-040752-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0585
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1253 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of central IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040452Z - 040752Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are expected to merge across central IL
over the next few hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" could lead
to flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are developing within an
850 hPa confluence zone across central IL downstream of a pool of
2000+ J/kg of MU CAPE. Meanwhile, a broader area of thunderstorms
and their associated outflow boundary are moving into the area
from the north. Precipitable water values are 1.6-1.9" per GPS
data. Effective bulk shear is ~25 kts.

The guidance suggests that convection ahead of the outflow
boundary could increase in coverage further prior to its arrival.=20
Heavy rain concerns could then shift from west to east across
central IL as cell mergers occur. The 00z HREF appears to have a
reasonable signal for what is upcoming. Hourly rain amounts could
amp up to 2.5" which would be enough to exceed the three hourly
flash flood guidance values. Flash flooding is possible.=20

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Gyy0aDom3LSlr6vWMmM02P7sPCKU16KyKzPR2WXbuSDFdalG0zQRgPXurfnnqGKs7WX= yo3i3t_5ZfYmXwhgUGqxRXs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...LSX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40738778 39728766 39218904 39889043 40369094=20
40558993=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040520
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-041119-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0586
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern CO & western KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040519Z - 041119Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms across northeast CO are
expected to continue to expand in coverage and increase in
organization over the next several hours. Hourly rain amounts to
2" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A wave of low pressure near the Front Range of the CO
Rockies is helping to lead to shower and thunderstorm development
from portions of eastern CO in southwesternmost NE, some of which
are being aided by upslope flow. Aloft, there is a negatively
tilted shortwave nearby, as seen on water vapor imagery.=20
Precipitable water values are 0.75-1.5". MU CAPE is 2000-3000
J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 30-55 kts.

The 00z HREF and REFS guidance paint a similar picture for
convective evolution. The activity is expected to grow somewhat
in coverage and move east and southeast with time across eastern
CO and portions of western KS. Hourly rain amounts could rise to
2", given the ingredients available. This could be due to periods
of cell training as the low-level flow and cell propagation are
expected to be roughly antiparallel, cell mergers as thunderstorms
in various levels of organization collide, or due to mesocyclone
formation. Three hour flash flood guidance is modest and could be
exceeded by the potential hourly rain amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9tRObObSYKva8RDjha068Fgkmc0u0rKaI9kFCRfhIdcDQeJO3IGjCe1Fcrsb6LhoC_a4= QbqIeyYPOYUsdRPzR7c2cjE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GLD...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40300104 39759975 38580002 38370146 38940260=20
39180429 39880395 40260282=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040549
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-041147-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0587
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeast NE, northeast KS, northwest
MO, & IA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040547Z - 041147Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are
expected to continue past sunrise. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
with additional local totals to 4" could lead to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...There has been an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
activity across portions of southeast NE and IA, while a longer
lived thunderstorm complex moves across northwest MO. This is
occurring within a zone of 850 hPa confluence. Precipitable water
values of 1.5-2" exist here, per GPS data. MU CAPE of 2000-3500
exists regionally, sustaining updrafts. Effective bulk shear of
25-35 kts is helping to organize activity.

The guidance, in a general sense, agrees on heavy rainfall
somewhere in this area. The zone of 850 hPa confluence is
forecast to move south and east with time, which should lead to a
similar movement of the associated convective mass with time.=20=20
Detailwise, issues abound, decreasing confidence as to exactly
where the heaviest rainfall may occur. The ingredients available
suggest that hourly rain amounts to 2.5" are possible, while the
00z HREF/REFS probabilities suggest local maxima to 4". This
could occur where cells train, merge, or an occasional mesocyclone
manages to form. Soils across portions of this area, particularly
in IA, are partially saturated. Urban areas would also be problem
with the heavy rainfall potential indicated. Widely scattered
occurrences of flash flooding are considered possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7xk5_xS5olQ5tnSdMfL2gZBqWnF_tq1xWHU4usbhoWGN09yUc7qC4iYaWMzFIyljhAHO= 1EX2AxPdwk7iCk-qcwK5Y-8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...EAX...FSD...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 42599304 41339154 39549357 38189635 40329873=20
42539558=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 040939
FFGMPD
ILZ000-IAZ000-041407-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0588
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
538 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern IA & northern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040937Z - 041407Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rain are moving into eastern IA
while new convection forms across northern IL. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A forward propagating segment of convection is moving
through eastern IA. Meanwhile, within the warm advection pattern
ahead of it and within an area of 850 hPa confluence, new
thunderstorms are developing across northern IL and are trying to
backbuild while the instability pool expands back towards
northeast IL. MU CAPE is 1000-2500 J/kg. Precipitable water
values are 1.5-2". Effective bulk shear is 20-25 kts.

While the 06z REFS has some idea concerning the eastern IA
convection, it's too far north. No mesoscale guidance has a
concept of what is going on lately in northern IL from a QPF
perspective. As there were recent heavy rains across northeast
IL, soils are partially saturated. Some combination of
backbuilding across northern IL and cell mergers with the activity
moving through eastern IA into northern IL appear to be the main
culprits from a heavy rain perspective over the next several
hours. Should recent trends continue, flash flooding would be
possible in this region. Uncertainty is greater than average
here.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_crITx5KWCfiCBNmK33ul6BhCXsfQrEkOduWp30H-ULi0WNB5LQRAl0YxwFlxkYp69FU= Pe1Yf0s6wVNXGv4eiOorB1M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42229109 42178863 41988767 41498758 40658773=20
40488865 40879065 41449199 41959194=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041054
FFGMPD
KSZ000-041252-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0589
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
653 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of central KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041052Z - 041252Z

Summary...Convection showing some backbuilding and training
character could continue past sunrise. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" remain possible until the thunderstorm area fades.

Discussion...A broad area of thunderstorms exists across northwest
KS northeast of a surface low centered in southeast CO. A
negatively tilted upper trough lies nearby. Precipitable water
values of 1.25-2" exist here. MU CAPE is ~2000 J/kg. Effective
bulk shear is ~40 kts. So far, the 700 hPa 12C isotherm has been
limiting convection with heavy rainfall north of ~38.5N latitude.

The guidance suggests that 700 hPa drop off as the morning wears
on, which would allow convection fighting the cap to take root and
become more efficient from a heavy rain perspective. The rain
band is oriented WNW-ESE presently, which is likely to persist as
the convective area shifts eastward, though there are indications
in the guidance mass fields that the area could broaden further.=20
The 06z HREF/00z REFS guidance has a weak to modest signal for
this complex but generally shows it moving east to southeast.=20
Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" remain possible until its width
narrows or the complex weakens. Until that happens, flash
flooding remains possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8fVSH9tD5c6NFnNP7IHNkDXwaZKojDYArvCB9TOxolZ1N05HDjPjQMKtxQu2JsM8SSLI= OikieGytBs3Jr-MZgyRG1zU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39549916 38919763 37509778 37029889 37530037=20
38670060 39470013=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041256
FFGMPD
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-041654-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0590
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
855 AM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska, eastern Kansas, far
western Missouri, far western Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041254Z - 041654Z

Summary..Widespread convection should persist for a few hours,
with slow-movement and locally heavy rainfall suggestive of
isolated flash flood potential through 15Z/10a central.

Discussion...Widespread convection has fired along an axis from
near Omaha south through Topeka and Emporia. The storms are
collocated with appreciable 850mb speed convergence along that
axis and are also benefiting from steep lapse rates and
instability aloft (around 7-7.5C/km 700-500mb). Steering flow was
modest, and the stationary nature of the convergence axis was
resulting in local backbuilding and repeating, with very isolated
spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates noted per MRMS. The rainfall was
also occurring atop wet soils from prior rainfall (especially in
norther portions of the discussion area, where 2.5-5 inch totals
were estimated in the past 24 hours). Flash flooding is possible
through 15Z/10a central.

The risk may be relatively shortlived, however. Models suggest
that a weakening low-level jet across the region should result in
weaker low-level convergence at some point after 15Z. Convection
may progressively become more isolated after that timeframe unless
any upscale growth manages to occur with this activity. Flash
flood potential may also lessen after that timeframe (15Z or so).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6d3Gb2Z6DfteM1B3GIUeXjfKHY03otYIcwK7XUq5NcZXhHeC3n2-RaTM5MEdC6R_N_Nf= AWyYJNtUzqWCkkEEQW9mT3g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...ICT...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41799650 41629500 40439440 38379421 37339481=20
37659687 39839715 41279700=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041631
FFGMPD
MOZ000-KSZ000-042029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0591
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1230 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...eastern Kansas, western Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041629Z - 042029Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will exist with an
ongoing complex currently over southeastern Kansas today. This
risk will gradually spread into Missouri through the afternoon.

Discussion...An ongoing complex over eastern Kansas (near Emporia
and Chanute) has a history of local 1.5-5 inch rainfall totals
over the past 3 hours earlier when several mergers were occurring.
Since that time, rain rates have lessened while the complex has
taken on more of a linear, forward-propagating character in the
past hour. Rain rates have also come down, although local spots
of 1 inch/hr rates are still noted per MRMS. On its current trek,
the leading edge of storms should reach the KS/MO around 1730Z or
so.

Meanwhile, the airmass ahead of this complex was heating and
destabilizing, with weak convective inhibition noted per mesoanalyses/satellite. While some uncertainty exists regarding
the evolution of this complex, it is plausible that scattered
convection continues along the leading edge of this complex while
new development occurs to its east/downstream. This scenario
would prompt additional cell mergers, locally enhancing rain rates
over locally sensitive areas of the Missouri Ozarks and vicinity.

Given the scenario, isolated flash flood potential will develop
eastward into portions of western Missouri over the next few hours
(through 19Z/2p central).

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-xsu6SnAIVjeL1Qo4pT8rGBy8uKKcOjNjdzepKVeIuFd1xwtXIdjhKLjhKGaoKCL5N7_= wcNZboAwKAkHLCfYvDChOIM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39419416 39169231 38419195 37359204 37009306=20
37289543 38789569=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041734
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-042333-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0592
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
133 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, western Virginia, far
northeast Tennessee, far western Maryland, and far northwest North
Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041733Z - 042333Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists this afternoon and
evening.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have developed generally
along and west of the highest peaks of the Appalachians over the
past hour or so. These storms were in a weakly forced
environment, with updrafts being primarily supported by strong isolation/low-level destabilization (supporting over 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 1.5+ inch PW) amid subtle terrain influences and
remnant outflow from prior morning convection. Very weak steering
flow is enabling slow/erratic cell movement, and local rain rates
exceeding 1.5 inch/hr were already noted on a localized basis
southwest of Beckley. FFG thresholds are generally in the 1-1.5
inch/hr range in that area and throughout the discussion area --
and spots of local FFG exceedance/flash flooding can be expected
in the near term.

These conditions are expected to continue through much of the
afternoon, with slow/erratic storm motions and occasional mergers
supporting peak rain rates of about 2 inches/hr in spots through
the early evening. Eventually, widespread convective overturning
should stabilize low-levels enough to reduce convective coverage
and attendant flash flood risk, though this may take a few hours
to play out. At least isolated/spotty flash flood risk should
exist through 23Z/7p eastern this evening.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Hu3KLJF18cQ6y7tErk4vz7f_jtCqbYGW6EuMwTxYk4hYOcFhD4Kw8cTw_ucs9U6UV8k= WiQr8MpedqVEtTzUXqZby8U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39677899 39477847 38607842 36548096 35728227=20
36048278 37238227 37878227 38468206 39498101=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041801
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0593
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northern IL...Central to Northwest IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041800Z - 050000Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase
in coverage over the next few hours. High rainfall rates and
relatively slow cell-motions will likely favor some scattered
areas of flash flooding this afternoon and early this evening.
This will include an urban flash flood risk to the Chicago
metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The early afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows a well-defined MCV exiting far eastern IA and moving slowly
into northwest IL. Strong boundary layer destabilization is
occurring ahead of it across much of central and northern IL via
solar insolation, with 3-hour MLCAPE differentials of +600 to
+1000 J/kg. This is has resulted in warm-sector MLCAPE magnitudes
of 1500 to 2000 J/kg which is pooled along and south of a surface
front and also ahead of a surface low that is connected to the
aforementioned MCV.

Some thunderstorm activity has already initiated over northwest
IL, and with the modest upstream vort energy and continued
increase in instability, an expansion of convection is expected
over the next few hours that will foster high rainfall rates.
Localized frontal convergence and even lake-breeze convergence
around Chicago may favor a scenario with thunderstorms may
eventually become a bit more focused.

PWs are high and generally over 1.75 inches. This combined with
the instability and fairly slow cell-motions will support some
rainfall rates reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger
storms. The latest hires multi-model consensus suggest some
localized storm totals of 3 to 4+ inches by early this evening.
Areas of central and northern IL through northwest and central IN
will tend to be the main target area over this nowcast period.

Given the wet antecedent conditions across the region with low
FFG, the HREF/REFS suites show high probabilities of FFG
exceedance, with some values of 50 to 80 percent noted over
northern IL and including the Chicago metropolitan area. The
environment as a result with the additional rainfall will be
conducive for scattered areas of flash flooding over the next
several hours and heading into the early evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4r1Ly8P7HunegBw6fo_Sxd5fpgpgZ6cLbVlMvU1jvZLzfipL2T6yziNU6JNI2BKt4u_f= Vvw6xakrc-4V7MoEmNqrSRk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42508895 42418766 41858680 41238615 40718539=20
40078518 39838540 39508621 39328695 39378798=20
39638907 40499013 41179016 41998988=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041822
FFGMPD
TNZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050020-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0594
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Far Northern LA...Much of AR...Far Southern
MO...Western MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041820Z - 050020Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving pulse cell thunderstorms this afternoon and
early this evening may pose a highly isolated and mainly urban
flash flood concern.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E satellite and radar imagery shows
pulse thunderstorm activity developing and expanding in coverage
across far northern LA, much of AR, far southern MO and western
MS. Strong boundary layer destabilization has led to MLCAPE values
of 2000 to 3000 J/kg, but the environment is very moist with PWs
up around or locally exceeding 2 inches.

Subtle low-level convergence/surface troughing and localized
orographics along with evolving outflow boundaries from cellular
convection will favor additional pulse cell development through
the afternoon and early evening hours. The rainfall rates with
some of these storms will be very high, with some rainfall amounts
of up to 1.5 inches in 30 minutes possible.

Some of the mesoscale boundary collisions may foster enough
localized convective persistence for some spotty 2 to 3+ inches
totals, and this may be enough to result in some highly isolated
and mainly urbanized flash flooding concerns going through early
this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5qWLgLXWDPt80ac_PGsJ5xHN1atmkrqw_P6LOYbQHx-F2qTiVyrCECbnte1pEI90gYHV= YfupdA0odxFgdL0LF1KMSNo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37249090 37138976 35618986 34498990 33528972=20
32678983 32399092 32879340 33699457 34899460=20
35699382 36239289 36819181=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041908
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-050100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0595
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
307 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Central and Northern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041907Z - 050100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with high rainfall rates may
result on a localized threat for some runoff problems and flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...Expanding cold-topped convection is noted in GOES-E
IR satellite imagery across areas of central and northern MN as a
slow-moving shortwave/vort center over far eastern ND ejects
eastward into the region. A frontal zone along with a wave of low
pressure is denoted in the latest surface analysis across the
area. This coupled with the pooling strong instability and a very
moist airmass will favor an increase in the coverage of heavy
showers and thunderstorms over the next few hours.

MLCAPE values are already as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg with PWs in
the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range. This strong thermodynamic environment
coupled with the placement of the aforementioned front and the
upstream shortwave energy should favor convection with at least
modest organization. However, some of the cells are expected to be
rather slow-moving and perhaps locally anchored along the
aforementioned frontal boundary.

This may help support some rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches/hour,
and some localized storm totals of 3 to 4 inches by this evening.
This is generally supported by the latest hires multi-model
consensus. Pockets of locally lower FFG are in place across
central and northern MN, and so these rains this afternoon through
early this evening may pose a localized concern for runoff
problems and flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5oKi6NJPMHlHJipDISPMie6ykJKWvDFY3dHFlA5VAcBFzQXIi0ynssbWmLhq_nO7Gsir= FI8AQljKArQHc0ktNTbtTJw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47929387 47879315 47479234 46699240 45779283=20
44959314 44619362 44629462 44889536 45229576=20
45989607 46879589 47419534 47799460=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 041954
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-050145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0596
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern OH...Western and Northern
PA...Southern NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041953Z - 050145Z

SUMMARY...Scattered areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms may
be capable of locally training over the same areas going into the
evening hours. Some isolated areas of flash flooding will be
possible as a result, including some potential for urban impacts.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
shows an expanding CU/TCU field across areas of central and
eastern OH through western and northern PA, and into portions of
southern NY. Already there are a couple of bands of heavy showers
and thunderstorms that have set up which are becoming increasingly
aligned in a west-southwest to east-northeast fashion with the
deeper layer steering flow.

Over the next few hours, additional expansion of shower and
thunderstorm activity can be expected given strong solar
insolation and a notably unstable boundary layer. In fact, MLCAPE
values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are pooled across central and eastern
OH through southwest PA. This region in particular will have
concerns over the next few hours for some cell-training, but the
threat is expected to also exist in time across areas of northern
PA and southern NY given the regional pooling of moisture and
instability out ahead of a surface trough.

Convergent low-level flow coupled with localized orographic ascent
and subtle height-falls will favor the overall convective
footprint going into the evening hours. PWs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches
coupled with the instability will easily support rainfall rates of
1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger storms. Some of the
cell-training concerns may elevate the storm total potential into
the 3 to 4 inch range which is supported by the latest
experimental WoFS guidance, the RRFS and some of the HREF members.

The threat of flash flooding will tend to be isolated in nature,
but will encompass a fairly large area of the Upper OH Valley and
northern Mid-Atlantic region going through the evening hours. This
will include an urban flash flood threat for some of the larger
cities, including the Pittsburgh metropolitan area.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_D5pjqTs84n0IsYCVQdaQcJdYsd-V-_CPYtO2iKL-kPskbRPGiG_4uoxiQ4cOJRfBmv7= 90R-9UOm_zk2Ruh4FWqh90Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43187574 42807438 41807450 40967624 39937984=20
39568184 39588371 40408419 41078197 41787972=20
42967734=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 042037
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0597
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
436 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Eastern MO...Southern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042036Z - 050230Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will be a threat into the
evening hours. Locally high rainfall rates will support an
isolated and mainly urban flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar data shows a long-lived MCV
advancing east into western MO. The leading edge of this energy is
still driving an axis of convection across central MO. This will
advance east though this evening into a very moist and unstable
airmass downstream characterized by MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000
J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2 inches.

The low-level flow regime over the broader mid-MS and lower OH
Valley region is rather convergent, and with the strongly
favorable thermodynamic environment, there should be more areas of
at least scattered thunderstorms that will be capable of high
rainfall rates.

Rainfall rates of up to 2 inches/hour will be possible with the
stronger storms, and there may be a couple instances of heavier
rainfall totals that reach up to 3 inches where any cells tend to
persist. A general multi-model consensus led by the HRRR and RRFS
guidance support this. Given the high rainfall rates, an isolated
and mainly urban concern for flash flooding will exist through
this evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4kbD2F-7LD9e5u7qHNwsy7Vt4Idi28AozFbKrZ_wwQPjzCBxrH3fRVD50mzbfzRvZyDJ= -PDwwRcJnZ8DgeCpxMzl44k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LSX...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39428942 39388832 39028758 38178773 37558853=20
37268999 37249137 37549210 38479185 39179057=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 042146
FFGMPD
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-050300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0598
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
544 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Central Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042144Z - 050300Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will impact the central Mid-Atlantic region this evening,
including the I-95 corridor from central VA through Washington
D.C. and into southeast PA and central NJ. High rainfall rates up
to near 2 inches/hour will foster concerns for urban flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with radar shows expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms expanding gradually off to the northeast across
western and central VA, with recent development also noted across
far northern VA, eastern WV and adjacent areas of west-central MD.
The activity is growing upscale as weak shortwave/MCV energy
crossing the central Appalachians ejects out into the very moist
and unstable boundary layer pooled across the central Mid-Atlantic
region.

Surface observations show an elongated trough axis aligned rather
close to the I-95 corridor from north-central VA through central
to northeast MD, and into adjacent areas of southeast PA and
central NJ. Along this boundary, MLCAPE values are as high as 2000
to 3000+ J/kg with PWs near 1.75 inches. This is a strongly
conducive thermodynamic environment for strong to severe
thunderstorms given the steep low and mid-level lapse rates, which
will also be conducive for high rainfall rates.

Regional hires models appear to be struggling somewhat with the
overall convective details and rainfall potential, but radar and
satellite trends along with recent data from the experimental WoFS
suggest a corridor of rather organized thunderstorms capable of
producing rainfall amounts of as much 2 inches per hour, with
perhaps most of this falling in as little as 30 minutes.

The overall convective threat should tend to align itself rather
close to the aforementioned surface trough and generally near the
I-95 corridor from northern VA through central and northeast MD,
and into southeast PA and central NJ going through the mid-evening
hours.

Some localized storm totals of 2 to 3 inches will be possible as
these clusters of thunderstorms advance generally northeastward
this evening, and with the high sub-hourly rainfall rate
potential, some areas of mainly urban flash flooding will be
possible.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9KGLJ6iYBGnHGODQWYxgLEzihiWJGwWoxdl-UAQs39y2IZQYZAP0ssvp0SRoL8uB4KcQ= D3Wfl1jMvvELMKYfJFtQw5g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40827439 40447382 39647440 38397618 37157763=20
36967884 37297967 37917977 38917908 39617803=20
40237676 40707534=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 042230
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NMZ000-050425-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0599
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
628 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Far Eastern NM...Western TX...Central and
Northern OK...Southern KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042228Z - 050425Z

SUMMARY...Organizing clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
this evening will tend to expand in coverage. Slow cell-motions
with high rainfall rates will foster at least an isolated threat
for flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
gradually organizing and tending to expand in coverage across the
southern High Plains of eastern NM and western TX, with an
expansion of activity noted off to the northeast across the TX
Panhandle through north-central OK and into southern KS.

Much of the convection is focusing in close proximity to a
well-defined surface trough, with a very unstable and moist
airmass pooled along it. The greatest instability is noted over
northern OK and southern KS with MLCAPE values of 2500 to 3500
J/kg and this is where the latest radar imagery shows a few
intense supercell structures.

There is a fairly strong axis of enhanced kinematics with elevated
effective bulk shear along the KS/OK border region, with values
upwards of 40+ kts, and this combined with the very strong
instability profiles will support supercell thunderstorms into the
evening hours with eventual concerns for cell-mergers and upscale
MCS growth off to the east and southeast with time. The
thunderstorm threat though will be noted all the way down into
western TX and even far eastern NM where convergence will be
maintained along this surface trough, despite weaker shear
profiles across these areas.

The heaviest rainfall potential will primarily be across areas of
central and northern OK and southern KS in the near-term where
these supercell thunderstorms become more concentrated. Slow
cell-motions and high rainfall rates capable of reaching 2.5
inches/hour will foster potential for localized 3 to 4+ inch
totals going through midnight. This may yield some isolated areas
of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_w78os2FDVWBv6UPDEb6Ppbup3LC4wyz85rfcyuJpcK4wugNE7Av5gk4VyWU5o8xU-nV= ZZ4zXfzmannoicHa7smEJh4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...ICT...LUB...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37939570 37579463 36639433 35769530 35009877=20
34380076 33740282 33780385 34400421 35010384=20
35980149 37009935 37889690=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 042334
FFGMPD
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-050430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0600
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
732 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Northeast to East-Central IL...Central and
Northern IN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042332Z - 050430Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue
impacting portions of northeast to east-central IL and especially
into central and northern IN. This will yield additional areas of
flash flooding going through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...The early-evening radar imagery shows a well-defined
axis of very heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of
northeast to east-central IL and into portions of central and
northern IN. This is connected to a well-defined MCS with extreme
rainfall rates that has already produced areas of significant
flash flooding across portions of the Chicago metropolitan area.

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift
off to the east this evening, but there will likely be additional
areas of flash flooding with the focus becoming a little more
concentrated across areas of central and northern IN. MLCAPE
values across central and northern IN ahead of the evolving MCS
and related MCV are still as high as 1500 to 2500+ J/kg, and with
multiple outflow/mesoscale boundary interactions continuing, this
should maintain the convective threat through late this evening.

Given the instability and high PWs reaching up around 2 inches,
the rainfall rates will continue to be as high as 2 to 3
inches/hour. Some of the cell-motions continue to be quite slow
too with this MCS evolution, and thus some additional localized
totals of 3 to 4+ inches will be possible. More areas of flash
flooding are expected, and primarily over central and northern IN,
given the sensitive conditions on the ground and with the high
rainfall rates. However, any additional rains over especially
northeast IL will aggravate ongoing flash flooding concerns here
from the earlier rainfall.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4O0ogwZVOVJTIFwowD9umadvFVgRVtGm5vBHuXnIe_mlqg1ikkRnHmUPO5fyzL_f7asT= pEGOWZBZn_WhL4Pxc_LsIfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42238735 41878639 41768540 41198490 40308488=20
39508525 38978609 38858697 39208812 40588780=20
41098809 41708830 42188799=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 050001
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0601
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Far Northeast TX...Far Southern AR...Northern
LA...Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050000Z - 050400Z

SUMMARY...Some additional slow-moving pulse cell thunderstorms
this evening with high rainfall rates may maintain an isolated
concern for mainly urban flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
broken axis of cold-topped convection impacting areas of far
northeast TX, far southern AR, northern LA and some adjacent areas
of southwest MS. An outflow boundary associated with this activity
continues to settle gradually southward, and the leading edge of
this is interacting with a very moist and unstable airmass pooled
over the broader Lower MS Valley region.

MLCAPE values are quite high with values of 2500 to 3500+ J/kg in
place along with PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. Most of the activity
remains pulse in nature, with some loose multi-cell organization
in spots. This activity may tend to hang on for a few more hours
before increasing boundary layer CIN begins to stabilize the
environment and promote a weakening of the activity.

The rainfall rates may still be capable of reaching well into the
2 to 3 inch/hour range for a few more hours, and some very
localized 3 to 4 inch amounts may still be possible. Generally,
any flash flood threat should remain isolated, but mainly confined
to the more sensitive urbanized locations.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8b6LugM6i7sQocXsSqbYbUOp1FTsoejwDMsHDbjpAEo4T7iFbHG9BVMRkx2IFCh5BmQK= V_Qmnijgtox8dTHAtCmO9zY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...LZK...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 33569399 33529286 33129140 32489002 31588924=20
30958966 31109113 31649288 32099405 32719484=20
33389476=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 050043
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0602
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
841 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Central/Southern MN...Western WI...Far Northeast
IA...Far Northwest IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050041Z - 050530Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms with high rainfall rates may
continue to foster at least some additional localized concerns for
flash flooding heading through the evening hours. This will mainly
be a threat to the more sensitive urban locations.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery still
shows some pockets of cold-topped and relatively slow-moving
showers and thunderstorms across areas of central MN. Over the
last hour, there has been some development and concentrations of
activity also over parts of western WI. Separately down to the
southeast, there is also a cluster of storms that is slow-moving
over southwest WI and far northeast IA which may creep into
northwest IL over the next couple of hours.

This activity is generally focused in close proximity to a
quasi-stationary front with as much as 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE focused
along it. Ejecting shortwave energy across the Upper MS Valley
will continue to interact with this front and the instability
along it for some convective sustenance going through the evening
hours. Gradually an increase in boundary layer CIN will begin to
erode the overall convective footprint by later this evening, but
with at least some modest deeper layer ascent persisting over
areas of central and southern MN and perhaps western WI with the
nearby shortwave energy, these areas will tend to see some
persistence of convective activity.

The potential down into southwest WI, northeast IA and northwest
IL is more uncertain, but surface observations support a weak area
of low pressure on the front that is helping to focus this
activity at least in the near-term. The PW environment remains
rather high with values of 1.5 to 1.7 inches. Expect additional
rainfall rates to be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the additional storms this evening. Since there continues to be
slow cell-motions a few highly isolated additional totals of 3+
inches will be possible.

This will continue to support a localized, but primarily urban
flash flood concern through the remainder of the evening.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4Fwlvg2pRdX6YRkI7sz6h_1Y5uFrONPR9MqBA7thndB6Lg-XzyYiF5zno84hxwZGo0Ow= 7G-4xJ34r3Bofntgsyx5mRc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...DLH...DMX...DVN...FGF...FSD...GRB... LOT...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46319596 45529419 45689190 45239082 44689048=20
43478969 42528936 41898962 41959075 43209281=20
43779533 44669656 45549687 46099682=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 050116
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-050715-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0603
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
915 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050115Z - 050715Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
with some localized concerns for cell-training will continue into
portions of the overnight hours. Some areas of additional flash
flooding are likely, and especially for the more sensitive urban
locations.

DISCUSSION...The evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
scattered clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms moving into
the Lower OH Valley with the assistance of multiple MCVs that have
been associated with earlier convection. This activity will be
moving east overnight, but will still be encountering a fairly
unstable airmass with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg.
Additionally, the airmass is very moist with PWs of 1.75 to 2
inches.

A combination of subtle height falls, the MCVs, and some
additional mesoscale boundary forcing with the moderately strong
thermodynamics should tend to maintain at least scattered areas of
heavy showers and thunderstorms into portions of the overnight
period. Rainfall rates will continue to be capable of reaching 2+
inches/hour with the stronger storms, and any cell-training
concerns may yield at least localized totals of 3 to 4 inches.

Portions of the Lower OH Valley in general have relatively low
FFGs, and so these additional rains may favor some additional
areas of flash flooding, but much of this threat should be mainly
confined to the more sensitive urban corridors.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4rAPwAKSNJ5-cq-v7HMCUaTKx0TmNNr1AKzhhS9LyMHCMRy65rgjEMWO0U_5IBkmsSve= t3OKyTh2C4iFvqZ8aRq644U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IND...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...PBZ...
RLX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40438220 40178037 39518043 39048277 38328447=20
37118623 36328793 36318935 36718942 37408854=20
38278778 39638643 40298442=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 050255
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-050753-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0604
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1054 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...in and near southeast OK

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050253Z - 050753Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue to move
southeast through OK, which should continue for another 4-5 hours.
Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...A mesoscale wave of low pressure in south-central OK
has been moving southeast through the state for the past several
hours. Somewhat to its east, convection has been slower to
forward propagate than the bow echo currently aiming at McAlester.
Convection exists within a region of low-level confluence.=20
Precipitable water values of 1.5-1.9" lie here per GPS data. MU
CAPE of 3000-4500 J/kg has been sustaining updrafts. Effective
bulk shear of 25-35 kts has led to convective organization.

The mesoscale guidance, along with 18z GFS mass fields, have been
too slow with this convective complex's forward motion and appear
to be focusing the heavy rainfall too far east based on recent
radar imagery. Over the next 4-5 hours, this complex should
continue southeast, moving through the bubble of highest
instability. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4"
should be possible where cells manage to merge or train near and
east of the wave. Given the flash flood guidance values, urban
areas would be most impacted by the upcoming heavy rainfall. Any
flash flooding would be isolated to widely scattered.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4GNmfqR_MFFVDDpwMeZQMClF-BfyzquTmFz6-uIeWyIBni4fc9jqq2trI-rt45tGpvQ6= dLj-RbdRYbj7RzkMeM8W4wY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35559684 35259570 34519471 33569459 33209581=20
33459681 33999758 35159805 35529782=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 050318
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050817-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0605
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1117 PM EDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Areas affected...near the MO/KS/AR/OK border intersection

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050317Z - 050817Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms with heavy rainfall have been
slow moving within an instability gradient. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with local totals to 5" could lead to flash flooding.

Discussion...A positively tilted upper level disturbance moving
across KS is aiding diffluence aloft over the top of slow-moving
convection within a zone of surface convergence and an instability
gradient that stretches from southeast KS across southwest MO
towards northern AR. Low-level confluence and 1000-500 hPa
thickness diffluence exist in this region. Precipitable water
values are 1.6-1.9" per GPS data. MU CAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg is
supporting updrafts. Effective bulk shear of 25-40 kts is leading
to some degree of cell organization.

The mesoscale guidance has a signal for heavy rainfall in this
region. Hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are supported in this
environment. Local totals in the 5" range cannot be ruled out
where cells sit long enough, merge, or train. Mesocyclones are
possible in this environment as well. This degree of rainfall
could lead to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!83wemzqoAXqQEwzfhqr-CiSNjMarutaYFARQ20kybC2MJyMNS2YYpcsVO0Pmz6LYnwll= hlTQOIx0D7IPJpUDE09cJHw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38279469 37379220 36159214 36359386 37989602=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 050411
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-050809-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0606
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1210 AM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...in and near southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050409Z - 050809Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall should
persist for another several hours. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5"
could cause flash flooding in sensitive terrain.

Discussion...Over the past couple of hours, showers and
thunderstorms have broadened in scale across northeast TN &
southwest VA within an area of low-level convergence.=20
Precipitable water values are ~1.75" per GPS data. MU CAPE is
~2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is less than 25 kts, leading to
pulse behavior.

The signal for this heavy rainfall area isn't particularly large
in the mesoscale guidance, but it appears that the 00z REFS is
handling it better than the 00z HREF guidance. It carries the
convection onward through ~08z before it fades. Hourly rain
amounts are possible where cells merge or manage to train.=20
Considering the complex terrain in this region and their modest
flash flood guidance values, flash flooding is considered possible
before convection fades overnight.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_IcDjn-DY_YwJyYKYQ-UwVxbvDcSyp4fqoFmaZNzZ3lmUh9K_4ZhWksOpHGkPo5OC3FM= kE6-NsRSqM3zdgZDZK060wY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37648042 36618130 35918231 35698322 36068341=20
36908238 37638147=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 050556
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051154-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0607
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
154 AM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...IN/OH border with MI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050554Z - 051154Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to redevelop
over an area of partially saturated soils. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible, which could lead to
flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop
along the portions of IN/OH border with MI. This is occurring
near a gradient in the MU CAPE field, between a surface boundary
and a zone of 850 hPa confluence across southern Lower MI.=20
Precipitable water values are ~1.75". MU CAPE across northwest OH
is 2000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is 20-25 kts.

The guidance broadly advertises an uptick in shower and
thunderstorm activity near the borderland through 12z. Given the
available ingredients, hourly rain amounts up to 2.5" are
possible. The mesoscale guidance advertises local amounts up to
4". Given the modest three hourly flash flood guidance values,
flash flooding is considered possible over partially saturated
soils.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_uW_BG8NG5hrfqTXNA6uCgX_buHbgb7CyOoNRE4nU2uUxhfnh_h3qQHItrT4DZeO12CY= jkDB_BcrWpg2Z2Bdsw1xPbM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42418346 42108265 41468281 41238381 41218542=20
41698589 42308564=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 051055
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-051354-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
654 AM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...eastern Mississippi, western Alabama, and
vicinity

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051054Z - 051354Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential exists this morning.

Discussion...A cluster of deep convection has materialized over
the last hour or so particularly across eastern MS (near
Philadelphia) and along the MS/AL border region. The storms are
embedded within an environment characterized by ~2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
weak steering flow aloft (supporting slow storm movement), and 2+
inch PW values - supporting locally heavy rainfall and 2+ inch/hr
rain rates in a few spots. These rates were approaching FFG,
suggestive of an isolated flash flood risk where heavier rainfall
can occur over low-lying/sensitive locales.

The longevity of this risk is unclear. Forcing for ascent is
weak, but tied to a mid-level shortwave trough just upstream over
the MS Delta region. Given weak inhibition and conditional
instability across the region, it is possible that additional
convection with heavy rainfall could maintain the localized flash
flood risk through 13Z and beyond. This region will be monitored
for additional flash flood potential - especially as surface-based
instability increases with surface heating later today.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Ib-MP6A0C0OE2oXTCPIS_0MBK-jMFzsTTvi3Wv4_gZzmkAC5jYGMOQtdT2kfd2LF_CW= FCi1dhXLlKxVwFyCgcVXy7c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 34158801 33728704 32558689 31498775 31188904=20
32028984 32928999 33888963=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 051121
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-051719-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0609
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
720 AM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...southern/southeastern Michigan, far northern
Indiana, and far northwestern Ohio

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051119Z - 051719Z

Summary...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area.

Discussion...A cluster of deep convection has materialized and
exhibited modest upscale growth from Jackson southward to
Montpelier in far northwestern Ohio this morning. Additional
convection is expanding in coverage southwest of Detroit through
areas south of Toledo. The storms remain in a favorable
environment for heavy rainfall due to ~500 J/kg MLCAPE, 1.8+ inch
PW values, slow storm motions, and ascent tied to an approaching
mid-level shortwave trough from the southwest (nortwestern
Indiana). Areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates were readily exceeding
FFG thresholds beneath the dominant cluster, and indications are
that the ongoing flash flood risk will continue in the near term
beneath any dominant, slow-moving convection in the region this
morning.

The extent of the ongoing flash flood risk is a bit uncertain.=20
Eventually, the dominant cluster near Jackson, MI will gradually
pick up a bit more easterly motion through the low-level moist
axis - eventually reaching the southeastern MI/Canada border near
Detroit (though this process will take several hours to unfold).=20
Scattered to perhaps widespread FFG exceedance and flash flood
potential is expected. Models hint at westerly re-development
upstream of the ongoing complex in northern Indiana which is
possible given mid-level waves traversing that area through the
morning hours, but low-level advection (forcing low-level
convergence/ascent) is weak in this regime and more insolation may
be needed for convection to redevelop on more than an isolated
basis. This regime will be monitored through the morning.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_rIL3rZlYWUfhva62IGv4SgHobpnXi0PhI9lbbuv4mdzUFh3HEU-wxeF1TSgotLvbTYe= NXoYjrNQtNYypmVkRUavvPo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42928392 42888303 42268274 41478318 41298473=20
41528605 42608513=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 051708
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-052306-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0610
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
107 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern Middle Tennessee, eastern
Tennessee, northern/central Alabama, and northwestern Georgia

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 051706Z - 052306Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms were producing
spots of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates. This regime will continue for
several hours this afternoon. Isolated flash flood potential
exists.

Discussion...Scattered thunderstorms have gradually increased in
coverage across the discussion area over the past couple hours.=20
Recent radar scans depict a more concentrated cluster of
convection across southern Middle Tennessee (near Lawrenceburg),
with convection extending from there eastward to near Oak Ridge
and Knoxville. The presence of a gradually expanding cold pool in
Middle Tennessee appears to be aiding in the focus of this
convection, with mergers fostering 1-2.5 inch/hr rain rates in
spots. The rain rates aren't a surprise given weak steering flow
(slow storm motions), 2+ inch PW values, and 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE.=20
Local FFG thresholds (in the 2 inch/hr range - locally lower with
northward extent) suggests that an isolated flash flood risk
exists in the near term.

Ongoing convection is likely to slowly evolve through the
afternoon, with newer development likely tied to the eventual location/development of the Middle Tennessee cold pool and any
other cold pools that manage to develop through the afternoon.=20
Flash flood potential will continue on an isolated basis in this
regime, with the bulk of convection being driven by daytime
heating within the broader pre-convective airmass. Flash flooding
is possible through at least 23Z/7p eastern.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8njUeny4wMahaYtbGc5ijnmb3C2Hr6snRHTWdLD52KXoLxKryaPX603HrmlInM7LGjeX= qkNQljYdCaJ4mqn9xfisgGg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...HUN...JKL...MEG...MRX...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36658381 36368277 35978283 33798449 33368675=20
35168857 35558814 35728713 35988591 36378471=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 051726
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-052324-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0611
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
124 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia, central/eastern Ohio, western/central Pennsylvania, and far western Maryland

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051724Z - 052324Z

Summary...Scattered convection was increasing across the
discussion area and will likely continue to do so through 23Z.=20
Flash flooding is possible in the next couple hours, but will
become increasingly likely through the afternoon and evening hours
(3-7pm eastern).

Discussion...Scattered convection was developing in a couple of
regimes: 1) within a persistent convective cluster that traveled
from southeastern MI through northeastern OH this morning and 2)
within weak warm advection and along terrain-favored ridgelines
from the OH/WV border region east to southwestern PA/western MD.=20
The storms are in an airmass that is destabilizing due to
insolation and is characterized by 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE, 1.75+ inch
PW values, and modest southwesterly steering flow supporting slow
storm motions. Spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates were already noted
in a few areas with both the established northeastern OH cluster
and across western MD and vicinity, and these trends will continue
over time as convective coverage increases. Flash flooding is
possible on an isolated basis through 19Z or so (3p eastern).

Through the evening, increasing convective coverage will make
flash flooding likely as an increase in incidence of
merging/repeating and local backbuilding offer opportunity for
rain rates to exceed 2 inches/hr at times. These rain rates will
fall on locally sensitive terrain an widespread areas of 1 inch/hr
FFG thresholds, which may be readily exceeded periodically.=20
Storms will gradually migrate from west to east while evolving
into a series of forward-propagating clusters and small linear
segments as well.

Cook

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-PSR24VmObTtelqNeZMg8JbIBMY-YsXMiq_HCgZwAK47L1czuFhcpEEeJFrM4p91x23w= 51QIjxwmIsK1dkR0Bfsea2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42177915 42007782 41307759 40227783 39227851=20
38627959 38048064 38078189 38288244 39208304=20
40918300 41478201 42018015=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 052036
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-060235-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0612
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Central and Eastern PA...Central and Northern NJ...South-Central to Southeast NY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052035Z - 060235Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally backbuilding/training areas of
extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms will be increasing in
coverage through this afternoon and into the evening hours. Areas
of significant and locally life-threatening flash flooding is
becoming increasingly likely.

DISCUSSION...The mid-afternoon GOES-E visible satellite imagery
along with radar data shows an increasingly expansive area of
extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of
western and central PA. This activity is gradually shifting off to
the east as an upstream shortwave trough and associated low
pressure center transits a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped
west to east across the region.

The airmass pooled up along this front is quite unstable, with
strong diurnal heating supporting MLCAPE values as high as 2000
J/kg. Meanwhile, the environment is very moist with PWs of 1.8 to
2.1 inches. This combination of moisture and instability along
with a moderately sheared kinematic profile has been supporting
increasingly organized convection with extremely high rainfall
rates. These rates have already locally been on the order of 2 to
3 inches/hour, and this trend should continue for the remainder of
the afternoon and evening hours.

The overall convective footprint should gradually shift east
across central and eastern PA with adjacent areas of south-central
to southeast NY through central and northern NJ becoming a target
by this evening for extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms. The
stationary front draped across the region coupled with the
approach of the upstream surface low center will combine with the
strong thermodynamics and areas of orographic forcing/upslope flow
for increasing coverage of convection with extreme rainfall rates.

The relatively rugged nature of the terrain across central and
eastern PA, northwest NJ and southeast NY will be a potential
target for high-end runoff potential and enhanced flash flooding
with these high rainfall rates, and any urban center will likewise
be at risk for extreme runoff potential and dangerous flash
flooding.

A consensus of the 12Z HREF/REFS guidance suggests some rainfall
totals of 3 to 6 inches being possible by mid-evening, and this
seems highly plausible considering the environment is conducive
for back-building and training thunderstorms. Therefore, given
some of the recent rainfall, and new additional high-end potential
this evening, significant and locally life-threatening flash
flooding is becoming increasingly likely across the northern
Mid-Atlantic region.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PqIDfHnvyagQfvtRt8Khg1Hb1U5kfNdhe1x27kwBF64yL9FwrG6duYuiekgwmMAecUg= dpepctz2HR14VIKNW81ShEI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42367442 41837338 40917327 39907499 39687778=20
39887949 40698002 41617940 42027762 42207611=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 052052
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0613
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...South-Central to Southeast LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052051Z - 060100Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms across
south-central to southeast LA will continue to foster some areas
of flash flooding going into the evening hours. This will include
the broader New Orleans metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an arc of slow-moving,
but very heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting areas of
south-central to southeast LA, with the activity impacting the New
Orleans metropolitan area.

MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg and PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches
are supporting extreme rainfall rates into the 2 to 4 inch/hour
range, and there are some recent concerns for cell-training as the
activity becomes well-aligned with the outflow boundary and
orientation relative to the mean layer steering flow.

The latest multi-model hires model guidance suggests some
additional rainfall totals could potentially approach 5 inches
given some of the cell-training concerns, and the latest radar and
satellite data with expanding cold convective tops would certainly
support that.

As a result, additional areas of flash flooding, including
potential for considerable urban flooding impacts around New
Orleans, are expected going into the evening hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_za0UneC0eoXbG5Hr-pWscg1Wbzrh02DKoynUkzp1g188rlpU2fN6QUqcukYv3ovC7Hm= djDIiQeFWbs2oRIiNmDUpiY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31169192 30949124 30539049 30188948 29918878=20
29358887 29338957 29649104 30219226 30749267=20
31139244=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 052108
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-060106-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0614
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
507 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Northwest TN into Western KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052106Z - 060106Z

SUMMARY...An isolated flash flood threat will continue over the
next few hours as outflow boundaries drive new convective
development. While storms will generally pulse in intensity, cell
mergers could produce localized hourly rainfall rates in excess of
2 inches.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar highlights an active, albeit
disorganized, convective regime across portions of northwest
Tennessee into western Kentucky. Ascent is currently being
enhanced by a MCV to the north over southern Illinois, acting in
tandem with favorable upper-level jet divergence over the region.
The ambient airmass is unstable and moisture-rich, characterized
by MLCAPE values ranging from 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PW values
hovering around 2.0 inches.

Given the weak mean cloud-layer flow across the region, convective
evolution is being driven by mesoscale boundary interactions.
Several outflow boundaries are currently traversing the area,
providing the necessary localized convergence to initiate new
updrafts within the unstable airmass. With weak deep-layer shear
in place, individual storms will mostly exhibit a pulse like
behavior. However, where outflow boundaries intersect, cell
mergers and brief periods of localized training are likely.

During these cell mergers, the high moisture and instability will
support efficient precipitation production. Hourly rainfall rates
could locally exceed 2 inches where these mergers occur, producing
a localized flash flood risk, especially if these intense bursts
fall over sensitive basins, urban centers, or poor drainage areas.

This overall flash flood threat is expected to be relatively
short-lived, likely persisting for only a few more hours. As the
pulse convection and expanding outflow boundaries continue to
overturn the boundary layer, the available instability will
gradually be exhausted, which should lead to a decrease in
convective intensity and coverage by later this evening.

Chenard

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5rWmrEXEYTnhaoiaQASIuhQbXERvgj43k1XsNVs8k1NmdX601rhU3rIHm0vyUmVPqppm= JNftuhJQOTVHafOb8C6h1Dw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37968850 37898722 36948646 36298647 35808710=20
35448777 35558828 35848915 36478941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 052126
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-060130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0615
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
525 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Southern Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052124Z - 060130Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and
expand in coverage this evening across areas of northwest through
north-central and eastern TX. High rainfall rates will pose a
threat for at least localized areas of mainly urban flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Cold-topped convective clusters are expanding in
coverage based on the latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery with
radar confirming a few supercell thunderstorms gradually settling
southward across areas of northwest through north-central and
eastern TX. The activity is forming along a well-defined surface
trough and with some subtle height falls associated with an upper
trough over the central Plains.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and PWs of 1.75 inches are
favoring some 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates with these
supercells, and with the slow cell-motions and concerns for some
cell-mergers this evening, there may be some rainfall totals that
reach up into the 3 to 4+ inch range. This is generally supported
by some of the hires CAMs and recent radar and satellite trends.

The convection should tend to increase in coverage, but may tend
to organize and consolidate into more of a regional MCS threat
going into the evening hours given the level of favorable
thermodynamics, and also a gradually improving kinematic
environment with stronger shear profiles. These trends will be
closely monitored, but at least for the short-term, a localized
and mainly urbanized threat for flash flooding will exist given
the high rainfall rates over the next several hours.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6kdl_uZvrbwpz_Or1V7_CoOZm2VIeC6DK1vMmB7-nk5G0C9SOLfqnqP7DTVIWvZBnikR= 2OnoBiPObu1M5cCuHmJzxIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LUB...OUN...SHV...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34409951 33809760 33269640 32719530 32089435=20
31459444 31419566 32059841 32650017 33190089=20
33750109 34310072=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 052210
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-060400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0616
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
608 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Central Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 052208Z - 060400Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will be developing and
increasing in coverage this evening across the interior of the
central Mid-Atlantic which will include the greater Washington
D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas. Scattered areas of flash
flooding are likely, including potential for locally significant
urban flash flooding impacts.

DISCUSSION...The late-day GOES-E visible satellite imagery is
showing areas of increasingly agitated CU/TCU across much of the
central Mid-Atlantic region as a very moist and unstable airmass
pools across the region. Meanwhile, a low-amplitude shortwave
trough continues to advance east across the Upper OH Valley and
into the central Appalachians.

This energy will be encountering an airmass characterized by
MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000+ J/kg and PWs of 1.75 to 2.0 inches.
Surface temperatures are locally in the low to mid 90s, with
dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and this enhanced surface-based
instability coupled with increasing low-level convergence should
help drive the development and expansion of thunderstorms across
areas of central and northern VA, along with the MD/WV Panhandles,
Blue Ridge, and areas eastward into the Delmarva. Already the
latest RAP analysis shows some increasing in small-scale moisture
convergence across central and northeast MD including the upper
Chesapeake Bay region.

As the upstream energy arrives in more earnest this evening, a
more regional threat of heavy showers and thunderstorms are
expected to ensue. High rainfall rates reaching 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour are expected with the stronger thunderstorms, and
while the activity may tend to forward propagate, there may be
enough persistence or anchoring of convection to foster some
localized rainfall totals upwards of 3 to 4+ inches. The latest
experimental WoFS guidance from the 21Z run suggests areas of
northern VA through central and northeast MD will have the
greatest potential for seeing this going through the late evening
hours. The HRRR guidance also has a similar scenario in terms of
amounts and general placement.

Given the environmental setup, at least scattered areas of flash
flooding are likely going through the evening hours. This will
include concerns for locally significant urban flash flooding
impacts in between the Blue Ridge and the Chesapeake Bay region
involving portions of the I-95 corridor and greater Washington
D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8s1tj1_Z9_esb2XZwqaLa5YgsfKlEPCepAb_T9tTINtPym11N-syv35KpsudisH-qQXa= gAIPk08b0YJeklAjJ45DvwI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39867503 39497479 38687522 38177572 37757638=20
37407711 37247780 37237889 37477977 38138017=20
39087968 39477901 39667805 39707663=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 052313
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0617
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
711 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Southern High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052311Z - 060500Z

SUMMARY...Locally expanding coverage of heavy showers and
thunderstorms can be expected through the evening hours across the
southern High Plains. High rainfall rates will pose a threat for
at least localized areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest WPC surface analysis shows a forming
stationary front from northeast NM down through northwest TX. This
boundary has become a focus for expanding clusters of organized
convection over the last few hours, and as shortwave energy
embedded within mid-level northwest flow aloft drops down across
areas of western TX this evening, there will be an expansion of
convection farther down to the south.

MLCAPE values across much of western TX are around 1000 to 1500
J/kg, with PWs near 1.25 inches. The instability profiles do get a
bit higher though for areas farther east into the TX Big Country
where there is closer proximity to some of the stronger and more
organized convection.

Most of the afternoon hires model CAMs suggest an evolving MCS
over northwest TX that will tend to drop south with time across
areas of central and western TX with potentially the convective
threat making it down close to parts of the Concho Valley/TX Hill
Country vicinity overnight. Increasing shear parameters aloft with
some of the digging shortwave energy will be a factor in helping
to drive this convective threat farther south with time. This
convective threat extends back into areas of eastern NM as well
where there are already a few scattered clusters of heavy showers
and thunderstorms.

Rainfall rates will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and some localized 3 to 4+ inch amounts will
be possible where some of these cells tend to locally train over
the same area. Localized areas of flash flooding will possible
through the evening hours as a result.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_M87XQcBIsEVo-1KKQ_YvnevVSgQD8z4CdIs-S9QXjPEfjUd5LQhgVWefx7l1KEN0GbQ= hPjp8pj5TIokFXrhtG_7-No$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35790286 35230177 34590064 34139928 33279826=20
32319806 31329851 30879999 31000198 31660356=20
32640449 33700485 34730473 35610406=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 052350
FFGMPD
PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-060500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0618
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
749 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Portions of the Upper OH Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052348Z - 060500Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms this evening may pose an
additional concern for some isolated flash flooding given locally
high rainfall rates and moist antecedent conditions.

DISCUSSION...The early evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows
scattered thunderstorms impacting the Upper OH Valley with a
couple of concentrated bands of convection impacting portions of
central to southeast OH. The main corridor of thunderstorms are
generally near and southeast of a surface low center that is
moving gradually east in close proximity to a stationary front.

Moderate instability is in place with MLCAPE values of 1000 to
1500 J/kg, and the airmass remains very moist with PWs of 1.8 to
2.0 inches based on the latest RAP analysis. A shortwave trough
continues to eject through the broader Upper OH Valley region, and
there is a belt of 30+ kt effective bulk shear values situated
across eastern OH and into western PA.

A combination of these ingredients will tend to support a
lingering convective threat through the evening hours, and
especially near the aforementioned low center. Some thunderstorms
will still be capable of producing 1 to 2 inch/hour rainfall
rates, with some spotty 3+ inch amounts possible where some of
these cells locally repeat over the same area.

Given some of the additional rains and the relatively
moist/sensitive soil conditions across the region, some additional
isolated concerns for flash flooding will exist.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!93CkSPImcxf71oCM4HmNIwCudGZzCGgYI5G5SXZ4R38jbcFCg5UpnlI-T2xQ-_K8nhXh= RZf5TCkn-qxEx8Ye8NHIRKE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...PBZ...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41128257 41018118 40458039 39228031 37858097=20
37858219 39238313 40098431 40768411 41098324=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 060137
FFGMPD
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-060735-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0619
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...Central to Northeast MD...Central and Eastern
PA...Central and Northern NJ...Southeast NY/Long
Island...Southwest CT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060135Z - 060735Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally backbuilding/training areas of
extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to be a
concern into portions of the overnight hours along and near the
I-95 corridor from northeast MD and southeast PA through central
to northern NJ and southeast NY. Areas of significant and locally life-threatening urban flash flooding are expected, with isolated
catastrophic impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The mid-evening GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with regional radar mosaics show extremely heavy shower and
thunderstorm activity becoming increasingly concentrated across
areas of northeast MD and southeast PA, with separate clusters of
slow-moving and locally backbuilding convection noted over
northeast PA, central NJ and parts of southeast NY.

The convection in particular across northeast MD and southeast PA
is becoming very closely aligned with the nose of a fairly strong
instability axis with MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg seen
riding up into southeast PA and toward the Lehigh Valley. Enhanced
moisture convergence is noted out ahead of a surface low situated
over southeast PA and with proximity of a quasi-stationary front
draped across the region.

Very high PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches are in place, with deep warm
cloud depths that are supportive of enhanced rainfall efficiency
with the ongoing clusters of showers and thunderstorms. The
environment will be conducive for focused areas of extreme
rainfall across areas of southeast PA and central/northern NJ in
particular where rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches/hour will be
likely.

This is generally where recent runs of the HRRR, RRFS and the
experimental WoFS support the highest rainfall potential as
convection focuses near the aforementioned low center, and the
corridor of greater moisture convergence and instability. These
models support locally as much as an additional 4 to 8 inches of
rain overnight before the convection gradually weakens and pushed
off to the east.

Multiple major metropolitan areas along and near the I-95
corridor, including Philadelphia and New York City, will be at
risk for significant urban flash flooding. However, the western
suburbs of these cities may tend to be where the overall heaviest
rainfall occurs as suggested by the latest hires model consensus.
Some of this may be aided by orographic ascent over some of the
more elevated terrain of eastern PA and northwest NJ in particular.

In either case, significant and life-threatening flash flooding is
expected over the next several hours as these clusters of
extremely heavy showers and thunderstorms move through. Locally
catastrophic impacts cannot be ruled out.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-gCWUqMIEtgRFycjXLTSlAPymevCYs-YtAxLVgGxi4RPJFSy79ED-vxOCqU2pWLUJAbr= 8BOHoNIiTTNrdH02cyFLkRQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...CTP...LWX...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41897445 41807326 41337274 40627302 39677391=20
39117481 38807593 38817702 39047766 39387791=20
40017767 40847694 41477581=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 060200
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-060459-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0620
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
959 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...near the GA/AL border

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060159Z - 060459Z

Summary...Convection with some level of organization has been
growing in coverage near the AL/GA border. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" are expected for another few hours, which could lead to
isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have been growing in
coverage near the AL/GA border. The region lies within a field of southwesterly low-level flow. Convection has been moving
northeast at 10-15 kts and occasional congealing and training.=20
Precipitable water values are ~1.9" per GPS data. MU CAPE is
2000-3000 J/kg which is sustaining updrafts. Effective bulk shear
is 20-25 kts.

The 18z HREF appears to have a reasonable grasp on what's ongoing
in this area. As flash flood values are high, the primary risk
from the heavy rainfall appears to be in urban areas. Hourly rain
amounts up to 2.5" could lead to isolated to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-pHdbhnQ72I7-p-cgS2IK1u7pR_DP0FibPXXRrbMCU6DQGmkWC_TK2rr7eij1R2ImV6V= deTrLvZwcuqa12aUezLX9UU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33098423 32788340 32058371 31378467 31338509=20
31268579 31998593 32728523=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

AWUS01 KWNH 060259
FFGMPD
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-060856-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0621
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1058 PM EDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Areas affected...in and near southeast MI & northwest OH

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060256Z - 060856Z

Summary...Narrow, highly efficient but transient heavy rain bands
are expected to continue overnight. Hourly rain amounts to 3"
could lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...A surface low across southern OH has created uniform
low-level east-northeast flow off of Lake St. Claire and Lake
Erie, where sea surface temperatures are 23-24C. Temperatures at
850 hPa are 15C while 700 hPa temperatures are near 6C. This is
leading to a MU CAPE pool which has declined to 500-1500 J/kg as
of late per SPC mesoanalyses. Precipitable water values of 1.7-2"
exist here per GPS data and the Detroit upper air profile, which
translates to a very moist profile up past 500 hPa/20,000 feet and
a wet bulk zero height of ~14,000 feet. Effective bulk shear is
20-25 kts which has led to narrow but brief training convective
bands which have been highly efficient since the low-level flow is
antiparallel to the mean layer 850-400 hPa wind (light out of the west-southwest).

The low-level cyclone across OH should remain quasi-stationary
overnight, which should continue the above conditions to persist.=20
Because of its distance from the mild to warm lake sources,
instability across northeast IN is forecast to decline with time,
which should shrink the risk area overnight. RAP forecast fields
forecast instability to remain at similar levels overnight which
should continue this behavior of narrow, brief heavy rain bands
that persist for an hour or two and look innocuous and radar
reflectivity but are highly efficient which then migrate/reform
elsewhere. The 18z HREF probabilities of 0.5"+ look more
realistic than the 00z REFS at the present time, so it was more
relied upon for MPD area/size. Hourly rain amounts to 3" are
possible. Flash flood guidance values are low due to recent
rains, leading to soils with a good amount of saturation.=20
Isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns remain possible.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!85wq5K4TArlNDIrf4y-D29KrODgBWCauVQBqWAQLRIrEpB3g2lJTJmCsYIHmqmZVEYPx= PuwxM6FQc5IGn2sNXhp4G4s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42508274 42138176 41478180 41028323 40798473=20
40988618 42358472=20

=3D =3D =3D
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--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)