ACUS01 KWNS 260547
SWODY1
SPC AC 260545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT GREAT
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark
Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern
Rockies into adjacent Great Plains.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that amplification of mid/upper flow across the
eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America will
continue through this period, with large-scale troughing and an
embedded cyclonic circulation digging inland across the Pacific
Northwest through Great Basin and northern Rockies, downstream of
building ridging. As this occurs, ridging is likely to build across
the northern Great Plains through upper Mississippi Valley, but
broadly confluent, zonal flow is forecast to persist east of the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley, in the wake of a mid-level trough
accelerating east of the lower Great Lakes through New England and
the Canadian Maritimes. On the southern periphery of this regime, a
number of convectively generated perturbations may progress across
the Ozarks Plateau and lower Ohio Valley through Mid Atlantic today
through tonight.

In lower levels, a weak surface low is forecast to migrate
east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes into northern New England,
before weakening. This may be accompanied by a reinforcing influx
of somewhat cooler and drier area, in the wake of an
ill-defined/diffuse preceding front overspreading the northern Mid
Atlantic. To the west of the Appalachians, this boundary may become
augmented in locations by convective outflow and developing areas of strengthening differential surface heating during the day. Across
the high plains, fairly significant surface cyclogenesis centered
across southeastern Montana is probable by 12Z Saturday, with
deepening surface troughing southward to the lee of the Rockies.

As a notable plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air spreads
east of the higher terrain, through much of the Great Plains,
initiation of stronger thunderstorm development may largely be
confined to the higher terrain, before propagating into the
deepening surface troughing across the adjacent plains. Otherwise,
to the east of the Great Plains, forcing for ascent and
destabilization along the weak front, and within low-level warm
advection to the east-southeast of the weak low, may provide support
for at least widely scattered strong to severe storm development.

...Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley...
Higher coverage of potential strong to severe thunderstorm
development may generally focus across this region, aided by at
least a couple of convectively generated perturbations. There is
spread among the various model output, but it still appears that
this could include a fairly notable MCV migrating into the lower
Ohio Valley by around 19-21Z, along a better-defined segment of the
low-level baroclinic zone. With surface dew points forecast near
70F, and a convectively augmented belt of flow on the order of 30-50
kt in the 850-500 mb layer contributing to sufficient shear for
supercell structures, a couple of tornadoes appear possible in a
corridor roughly centered along the Ohio River. Otherwise, several
clusters of thunderstorms may evolve this afternoon and evening,
possibly accompanied by developing corridors of strong to severe
wind gusts.

...Northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Given a corridor of at least weak to moderate boundary-layer
destabilization near and to the lee of the higher terrain, forcing
for ascent and strengthening vertical shear downstream of the
digging large-scale troughing probably will become supportive of a
period of organized severe thunderstorm development late this
afternoon through evening. This may include supercells and
organizing clusters posing a risk for severe hail and wind, and at
least some potential for a tornado or two.

..Kerr/Chalmers.. 06/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261251
SWODY1
SPC AC 261249

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261300Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS PLATEAU INTO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE BLACK
HILLS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is possible today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark
Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern High
Plains to the Black Hills vicinity.

...Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley...
Radar-mosaic imagery this morning shows a trio of MCVs (e.g.,
western KY, southwest MO, east-central OK) moving east across the
general region. Ongoing linear clusters of thunderstorms associated
with the MO and KY MCVs cast considerable uncertainty regarding
destabilization across the Ozarks into the lower OH Valley.
Nonetheless, a residual baroclinic zone aided perhaps by
differential heating along the remnant outflow will favor renewed
storm development later this afternoon. A seasonably moist airmass
(lower 70s F dewpoints) in proximity to some enhancement of the
background westerly flow, will likely contribute to strong to severe
storms developing by mid to late afternoon through the evening. A
couple of tornadoes are possible with supercell activity as well as
scattered damaging gusts with the more organized multicells and
related clusters.

...High Plains...
A seasonably anomalous upper trough over the West will feature a
lead disturbance ejecting northeastward into the northern High
Plains during the Day 1 period. Pronounced lee troughing is
forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over southeast MT by
late tonight. Congruent with prior forecast thinking, a corridor of
at least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected
across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample
vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will
favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Farther south, isolated to widely scattered storms will likely
develop/mature and propagate east during the evening. Hail and wind
are the primary hazards with this activity and this severe risk will
probably linger into the late evening.

...Mid-Atlantic states...
The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow
is forecast across northern Mid-Atlantic region. The northern rim
of richer low-level moisture (lower 70s F dewpoints) arches from
eastern NC into southeast VA. The overlap of moderate westerly flow
and weak destabilization will probably support scattered
thunderstorms capable of an isolated risk of strong to locally
severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph).

...New England...
An upper shortwave trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes this
morning will move east across New England by this evening.
Considerable cloud cover will limit the overall magnitude of
destabilization, but upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast
to develop by midday. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb
speed max will aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a
couple of supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of
large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the
stronger thunderstorms.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 261648
SWODY1
SPC AC 261647

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS TO OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AS WELL AS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the Ozark
Plateau to Lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the northern and
central High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Other severe storms
are expected across portions of New England.

...Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
Multiple eastward-moving MCVs remain evident regionally in
observational data at midday, probably strongest across southeast
Missouri, but also the Oklahoma/Arkansas border vicinity and
northern Kentucky. A related observed enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow will persists from the Ozarks/Bootheel
east-northeastward parallel to the Ohio River, but cloud
cover/scattered precipitation remains fairly prevalent regionally as
well. Peripheral cloud breaks and insolation should allow for
gradual destabilization, particularly on the south/southwest fringes
of this early day activity. This should lead to severe storm
development into mid/late afternoon through the evening, potentially
including supercells given the flow enhancement. A couple of
tornadoes could occur aside from wind damage.

...High Plains...
A seasonably anomalous upper trough will continue to amplify and
spread eastward over the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin
and Intermountain West, with a lead disturbance ejecting
northeastward toward the northern High Plains. Pronounced lee
troughing is forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over
central and southeast Montana through tonight. A corridor of at
least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected
across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample
vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will
favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Across the central into southern High Plains, isolated to widely
scattered storms will likely develop/mature and propagate east
during the evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards with this
activity and this severe risk will probably linger into the late
evening.

...New England...
Have introduced a Slight Risk for portions of the region, primarily
focused near the advancing surface low/warm front. A shortwave
trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes will move east across New
England by this evening. Cloud cover, albeit abating this afternoon,
will limit the overall magnitude of destabilization, but upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast to develop along/south of a warm
front. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb speed max will
aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a couple of
supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the stronger
thunderstorms, but the moist environment and low-level shear/SRH
could yield a tornado threat.

...Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas...
The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow
is forecast across the region, atop northward-shifting low-level
moisture that is richest across the Carolinas into southern
Virginia, where near/above 70 F surface dewpoints are prevalent. The
overlap of moderate westerly flow and weak destabilization is
expected to support scattered thunderstorms capable of strong to
locally severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph). Additional sea-breeze
influenced locally severe storms may occur across the coastal plain
of the Carolinas.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/26/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 262002
SWODY1
SPC AC 262000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 262000Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm development is expected today,
particularly this afternoon into tonight across parts of the
southern Plains to Lower Ohio Valley and across parts of the
northern and central High Plains to the Black Hills vicinity. Other
severe storms are expected across portions of New England.

...20Z Update...
The forecast remains on track, and only minor changes were made with
this update.

The SLGT risk in the central High Plains was expanded southeastward
from southeast CO into southwest KS and parts of the OK/TX
Panhandles. Guidance is in relatively good agreement, depicting
thunderstorms evolving off the Raton Mesa and tracking
east-southeastward along a gradient of rich boundary-layer
moisture/moderate surface-based buoyancy this evening/tonight. Aided
by 40 kt of effective shear and increasing low-level hodograph
curvature amid a strengthening nocturnal LLJ, supercell clusters
will pose a risk for severe gusts, large hail, and possibly a
tornado.

Farther east, a minor westward expansion of the SLGT risk was made
into north-central OK. Ample diurnal heating/destabilization of a
very moist air mas (middle/upper 70s dewpoints) is yielding strong surface-based buoyancy along an east/west-oriented surface boundary.
Current thinking is that a few organized clusters/supercells
developing along the boundary will be capable of producing severe
wind gusts and large hail later this afternoon/evening.

..Weinman.. 06/26/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026/

...Ozarks and Lower Ohio Valley...
Multiple eastward-moving MCVs remain evident regionally in
observational data at midday, probably strongest across southeast
Missouri, but also the Oklahoma/Arkansas border vicinity and
northern Kentucky. A related observed enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow will persists from the Ozarks/Bootheel
east-northeastward parallel to the Ohio River, but cloud
cover/scattered precipitation remains fairly prevalent regionally as
well. Peripheral cloud breaks and insolation should allow for
gradual destabilization, particularly on the south/southwest fringes
of this early day activity. This should lead to severe storm
development into mid/late afternoon through the evening, potentially
including supercells given the flow enhancement. A couple of
tornadoes could occur aside from wind damage.

...High Plains...
A seasonably anomalous upper trough will continue to amplify and
spread eastward over the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin
and Intermountain West, with a lead disturbance ejecting
northeastward toward the northern High Plains. Pronounced lee
troughing is forecast with a surface low expected to evolve over
central and southeast Montana through tonight. A corridor of at
least weak to moderate boundary-layer destabilization is expected
across the High Plains. Strengthening large-scale ascent and ample
vertical shear downstream of the digging large-scale troughing will
favor organized severe thunderstorm development late this afternoon
through evening. Supercells and evolving organized clusters will
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Across the central into southern High Plains, isolated to widely
scattered storms will likely develop/mature and propagate east
during the evening. Hail and wind are the primary hazards with this
activity and this severe risk will probably linger into the late
evening.

...New England...
Have introduced a Slight Risk for portions of the region, primarily
focused near the advancing surface low/warm front. A shortwave
trough over Ontario/Lower Great Lakes will move east across New
England by this evening. Cloud cover, albeit abating this afternoon,
will limit the overall magnitude of destabilization, but upwards of
1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE are forecast to develop along/south of a warm
front. Elongated hodographs beneath a 100+ kt 250-mb speed max will
aid in storm organization in the form of possibly a couple of
supercells and organized multicells. Isolated coverage of large hail
and damaging gusts are the primary risks with the stronger
thunderstorms, but the moist environment and low-level shear/SRH
could yield a tornado threat.

...Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas...
The southern periphery of stronger mid to high-level westerly flow
is forecast across the region, atop northward-shifting low-level
moisture that is richest across the Carolinas into southern
Virginia, where near/above 70 F surface dewpoints are prevalent. The
overlap of moderate westerly flow and weak destabilization is
expected to support scattered thunderstorms capable of strong to
locally severe/damaging gusts (50-60 mph). Additional sea-breeze
influenced locally severe storms may occur across the coastal plain
of the Carolinas.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270103
SWODY1
SPC AC 270102

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0802 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TONIGHT
FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with severe outflow gusts and large
hail will persist into early tonight across the High Plains and from
northern Oklahoma into southern Missouri.

...Northern OK to southern MO...
Multiple strong-severe storms formed late this afternoon along a
stalled front from the northeast TX Panhandle eastward into northern
OK into southern MO. Seasonably high moisture content in the
boundary layer (dewpoints in the low-mid 70s) and lingering warm
temperatures are contributing to MLCAPE near 3000 J/kg with only
weak convective inhibition, while vertical shear is sufficient for
supercells with large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter). Storms will
likely persist into tonight as a result of cell interactions and an
increase in warm advection with a strengthening low-level jet,
immediately downstream from a subtle midlevel trough now approaching
northwest OK. The stronger cells/clusters will be capable of
isolated large hail and occasional severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph
as storms spread slowly southeastward across
northern/central/northeast OK.

A similar environment extends into southern MO along and south of
the stalled front, with a few ongoing cells/clusters. There has
been some localized tornado threat across south central MO where a
discrete storm or two are interacting with a zone of slightly
enhanced low-level shear in a moist environment, though the tornado
threat will remain localized/marginal.

...High Plains...
Widely scattered storm clusters formed this afternoon and continue
to develop this evening with interacting outflows from MT across
eastern WY/NE Panhandle into eastern CO and the western OK Panhandle
on the west edge of the moisture in a largely upslope flow regime.
This corridor is downstream from a pronounced midlevel trough over
the Great Basin/Pacific Northwest, which will encourage a nocturnal
low-level jet to support some persistence of storms into early
tonight, despite weakening buoyancy and increasing inhibition with
eastward extent. Occasional severe outflow gusts and large hail
will be the main threats.

Potential for storms to maintain a wind/hail threat a little deeper
into the overnight hours will be across southwest KS and vicinity.
The storm clusters spreading eastward from CO will encounter
somewhat richer low-level moisture (mid-upper 60s dewpoints) on the
immediate cool side of a stalled front, coincident with a nocturnal
increase in the low-level jet and associated warm advection.

...KY area...
A remnant MCV is moving eastward over western KY with the primary
storm cluster from far southern IN into central KY on the leading
edge of the ascent. These storms have exhibited a primarily linear
mode with a trailing cold pool into western KY. Earlier discrete
storms have since weakened while moving atop the rain-cooled air,
though a few storms may persist into early tonight in the warm
advection regime on the southwest flank of the MCV. The primary
severe threat appears to be isolated wind damage with the leading
line segments across central/northern KY for the next 1-2 hours
before boundary-layer stabilization weakens the storms.

..Thompson.. 06/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 270535
SWODY1
SPC AC 270533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A mix of initial supercells and later storm clusters will produce
swaths of severe outflow winds and very large hail across the
northern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight.
Isolated wind damage will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi
Valley to the Carolinas, as well as across west Texas and the Texas
Panhandle.

...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
Embedded speed maxima will rotate northeastward over the northern
High Plains, around the eastern periphery of a close midlevel low
evolving over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will continue to spread
northward from KS/NE to the Dakotas, east of a deep lee
trough/cyclone across the central/northern High Plains. The
moistening will occur beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, which
combined with daytime heating will result in large CAPE.

Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along both the
surface trough/lee cyclone near the MT/ND border and near the Big
Horn Mountains. The initial storms could be supercells with very
large hail (2-3 inch diameter) near the ND/MT border, and a couple
of tornadoes with any supercells anchored along the surface
boundary, though relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and
mode concerns could temper the tornado threat somewhat. By late
evening and early tonight, storms will likely grow upscale and move northeastward across ND as one or more MCSs with severe outflow
winds (potentially 80+ mph) in the steep lapse rate environment.
More isolated supercells will also be possible farther south into
western SD/NE where isolated very large hail and significant severe
outflow gusts will be possible.

...TN/southern KY to NC this afternoon...
An MCV now over eastern KY will continue eastward near the VA/NC
border during the day, and additional MCVs are likely to emerge from
ongoing storm clusters moving eastward across OK, southwest KS and
the TX Panhandle. Ascent with the MCVs, as well as residual outflow/differential heating zones, will help focus thunderstorm
development during the afternoon in a moist, unstable environment.
Occasional wind damage will be possible with storm clusters where
low-level lapse rates are relatively steep (south of persistent
clouds) and there is some enhancement of midlevel flow. An isolated
tornado may also occur in the warm advection zone with enhanced
low-level hodograph curvature across TN on the southwest flank of
the western MCV, though confidence in this scenario is low.

...TX Panhandle into west TX late this afternoon/evening...
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south,
strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could
support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271202
SWODY1
SPC AC 271200

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
A mix of initial supercells and later storm clusters will produce
swaths of severe outflow winds and very large hail across the
northern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight.

...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
over the Vancouver/Washington coast with a large-scale trough
enveloping much of the West. Strong cyclonic 500-mb flow will
extend through the base of the trough and into parts of the northern
High Plains later today coincident with the ejection of a lead
disturbance into the western Dakotas. Boundary-layer dewpoints in
the 60s will continue to spread northward from KS/NE to the Dakotas,
east of a deep lee trough/cyclone across the central/northern High
Plains. The moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep midlevel
lapse rates emanating from the Great Basin and north-central
Rockies.

Morning showers and thunderstorms over parts of this region will
move downstream and away from where strong to severe thunderstorm
development is expected later this afternoon, along both the
surface trough/lee cyclone near the MT/ND border and near the Big
Horn Mountains. Some of the stronger initial storms will likely be supercellular owing to moderate to large CAPE. The risk for large
to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near the
ND/MT border where supercells are forecast early in the convective
life cycle. A couple of tornadoes are also possible but relatively
large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to upscale
growth may temper the tornado threat. As more storms develop
leading to storm mergers and coalescing outflow, a linear cluster
may potentially develop into a bow echo across western ND this
evening. The NSSL-WRF and some recent HRRR time-lagged solutions
imply this scenario but uncertainty remains due to appreciable model
spread. Nonetheless, the very unstable airmass over western ND
combined with a supercell to linear cluster transition in the
presence of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, lends confidence in highlighting a corridor over western ND in a level 2 intensity
(locally 80-100 mph gusts). More isolated supercells will also be
possible farther south into western SD/NE where isolated very large
hail and significant severe outflow gusts will be possible.

...TN/southern KY to NC this afternoon...
A series of MCVs in a corridor from south-central KS into MO and
east near the WV/VA border will provide a focus for additional
thunderstorm activity through the day. In areas void of morning showers/thunderstorms, a very moist boundary layer featuring lower
to mid 70s F surface dewpoints will gradually heat and destabilize
through the mid afternoon. Some enhancement of midlevel flow in
proximity to the MCVs may aid in storm organization primarily in the
form of multicellular clusters. Isolated to widely scattered wind
damage will be the primary risk with this activity, but an isolated
tornado may also occur in the warm advection zone with enhanced
low-level hodograph curvature across TN on the southwest flank of
the western MCV, though confidence in this scenario remains low.

...TX Panhandle into west TX late this afternoon/evening...
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south,
strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could
support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/27/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271644
SWODY1
SPC AC 271642

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 271630Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High
Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the
western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong
outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into
tonight.

...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally
later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant
severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to
approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong
upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt
southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F
will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a
deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far
western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more
prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level
moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies.

Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface
low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the
Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger
initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to
moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large
to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in
the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more
discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther
southeastward across northwest South Dakota.

A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more
moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but
relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to
upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with
northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border
vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and
coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this
evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph)
possible.

Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the
Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated
intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska
with large hail and damaging winds.

...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY...
Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the
prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest,
strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist
early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest
destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah,
southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley
vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur.

...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina...
Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and
southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they
progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee.
Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data,
and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt
4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term
details.

These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development
within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the
southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky
and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear.
Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some
tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms
capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the
Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening.

...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south,
strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could
support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/27/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 272002
SWODY1
SPC AC 272000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today across the northern High
Plains including northeast Wyoming and eastern Montana into the
western Dakotas, with storms capable of very large hail, very strong
outflow winds (80+ mph), and tornadoes late this afternoon into
tonight.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments
were made with this update. The ENH risk was expanded slightly
southwestward in northeastern WY, where several discrete supercell
have evolved off the Bighorn Mountains -- posing a risk of large to
very large hail.

In western ND, the CIG1 tornado area was extended slightly
northward. Continued diurnal heating amid upper 60s dewpoints will
yield moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy and minimal inhibition.
Backed surface winds beneath strengthening flow aloft will
contribute to favorably curved hodographs. Any storms that can form
or move into this environment will conditionally support a strong
tornado.

Farther east, the SLGT risk was expanded northward in the lower OH
Valley. Here, diurnal heating/destabilization of a very moist air
mass (upper 70s dewpoints) will continue to support loosely
organized thunderstorm clusters capable of producing widely
scattered damaging winds this afternoon.

..Weinman.. 06/27/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026/

...Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight...
A rather active severe-weather scenario is anticipated regionally
later today, including the potential for intense/locally significant
severe storms. A lead shortwave trough/speed max will continue to
approach through late today, with the exit region of a strong
upper-level jet overspreading the region including 50+ kt
southwesterlies above 5km AGL. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s F
will continue to spread northward regionally, to the east of a
deepening surface low across northeast Wyoming toward the far
western Dakotas, and a sharpening lee trough/dryline across a more
prevalent north/south extent of the High Plains. This low-level
moistening will occur beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates
emanating from the Great Basin and north-central Rockies.

Initial surface-based development is expected near the surface
low/trough near the Big Horn Mountains toward the
Wyoming/Montana/North Dakota border vicinity. The maturing stronger
initial storms will almost certainly be supercellular owing to
moderate to large CAPE and a strong wind field. The risk for large
to very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) is greatest near this aforementioned border region where supercells are forecast early in
the convective life cycle, although additional/somewhat more
discrete development will also likely occur a bit later farther
southeastward across northwest South Dakota.

A few tornadoes are also possible particularly in the more
moisture-rich environment near the surface triple point, but
relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and a transition to
upscale growth may temper the tornado threat, particularly with
northward extent either side of the Montana/North Dakota border
vicinity. As more storms develop leading to storm mergers and
coalescing outflow, a linear cluster will likely develop into a maturing/accelerating bow echo into western North Dakota this
evening, with significant/intense thunderstorm winds (80+ mph)
possible.

Severe storms will likely develop eastward tonight across the
Dakotas, and prior to that, diurnally enhanced, but more isolated
intense, development is plausible as far south as western Nebraska
with large hail and damaging winds.

...Northern Intermountain West including northern UT/western WY...
Influenced by a lead shortwave trough/speed max associated with the
prominent upper-level trough centered over the Pacific Northwest,
strong to locally severe thunderstorm potential will probably exist
early today. The prolifically strong wind field and modest
destabilization will tend to focus today across northern Utah,
southeast Idaho into western Wyoming, including the Star Valley
vicinity. Severe-caliber wind gusts and some hail may occur.

...Mid-South/Tennessee/southern Kentucky to North Carolina...
Multiple MCVs, including across far south-central Missouri and
southeast Kansas at midday, will influence the region as they
progress east-southward generally toward Kentucky and Tennessee.
Related flow enhancement is evident in regional WSR-88d VWP data,
and particularly in the 12z Lamont, OK observed sounding (40+ kt
4-9km AGL). See Mesoscale Discussion 1346 for additional short-term
details.

These MCVs will influence and semi-focus thunderstorm development
within a moist and increasingly unstable boundary layer from the
southeast Missouri/northeast Arkansas border vicinity into Kentucky
and Tennessee. This includes the possibility of some supercells and well-organized clusters in the presence of 35-40 kt effective shear.
Pockets of wind damage will be the most common risk, but some
tornado potential will exist as well. Additional severe storms
capable of wind damage are also expected farther eastward into the
Carolinas this afternoon through around mid-evening.

...Texas Panhandle/West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south,
strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could
support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon.
Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe
outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 280101
SWODY1
SPC AC 280059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for isolated very large hail (2+ inches in diameter) and
swaths of severe outflow gusts (potentially exceeding 80 mph) will
persist through early tonight across the Dakotas and far eastern
Montana. A couple of tornadoes will also be possible with lingering
supercells this evening and embedded circulations within the larger
clusters.

...Northern Plains...
Thunderstorms have been growing upscale into the primary cluster
over southwest ND, with additional frontal convection into eastern
MT and another cluster moving off the lee trough in southwest SD.
Vertical shear and buoyancy remain favorable for supercells with
isolated very large hail, though the clear trend to the expected
cluster/linear mode suggests that severe outflow gusts of 60-85+ mph
will be the main threat across the western Dakotas through early
tonight. A few tornadoes are still possible late this evening with
lingering supercells from west central ND to northwest NE per the
00z BIS and LBF soundings, though the threat will transition more to
embedded circulations within line segments across SD/ND. The ND
cluster is expected to weaken late tonight across central/eastern
ND, while the SD cluster may persist longer in a strengthening warm
advection regime, though the severe threat will slowly diminish with
eastward extent as the convection becomes elevated.

...Eastern MO to KY/TN...
Multiple, remnant MCVs are moving eastward from eastern MO across KY
to NC. Prior convection has overturned much of NC, where the threat
for wind damage has diminished. There will still be a low-end wind
damage threat where the MCVs move along the northern gradient of
somewhat larger buoyancy from eastern MO to KY/TN. A brief tornado
may also occur in the short term with supercell structures in the
warm advection zone where low-level shear is slightly enhanced on
the southwest flank of the primary MCV moving across KY.

...West TX/southeast TX Panhandle in the short term...
Only isolated deep convection has formed as of this evening across
the Pecos Valley and near CDS. Lingering hot surface temperatures
and inverted-V profiles could still support isolated severe outflow
gusts through about 02-03z.

..Thompson.. 06/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 280555
SWODY1
SPC AC 280554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS
AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible today across northern Iowa and
vicinity, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large to very large
hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.

...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight...
As the primary cyclone occludes near the southwest SK/southeast AB
border, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt will
be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed low
over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone is
expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon and
then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. A storm cluster
will likely be ongoing near the southwest MN/northwest IA border at
the start of the period, as a continuation of the ongoing storms
along the NE/SD border. These morning storms will pose a threat for
occasional large hail/wind damage along the warm front/buoyancy
gradient through midday/early afternoon. In the wake of the morning
storms, a surface warm front demarcating boundary-layer dewpoints
into the 70s will likewise move northward slowly across IA into
southern MN/WI. West of the morning storms, a warm elevated mixed
layer observed in 00Z soundings across the central Plains will act
to cap the moistening boundary layer and likely inhibit additional
warm sector storm development through much of the period. A few
storms will be possible in ND during the afternoon, though storm coverage/intensity are both in question given weak-moderate buoyancy
and limited forcing for ascent.

Much of the severe threat will likely be delayed until tonight
immediately north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of
richer moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle
embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated
thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern
ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells capable of
producing very large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and occasional
severe gusts.

Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of
the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the
surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least
isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms
tonight.

...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening...
An MCV now over KY will turn more southeastward today, downstream
from an amplifying ridge over the lower and middle MS Valley.
Destabilization and steepening of low-level lapse rates in cloud
breaks, along with ~25 kt midlevel flow, will support isolated wind
damage potential with storm clusters during the afternoon/evening.

...West TX late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Thompson/Chalmers.. 06/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 281246
SWODY1
SPC AC 281244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE DAKOTAS
AND PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible this morning over northern Iowa
and southern Minnesota, and mainly tonight across the Dakotas. Large
to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards.
Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts
of the Carolinas.

...Dakotas to IA/WI through tonight...
Radar mosaic this morning shows a bow echo moving eastward along the
MN/IA border primarily north of a buoyancy gradient/warm frontal
zone. Occasional severe gusts (60-70 mph) have been observed with
this MCS the past couple of hours. Expecting more of an
east-southeastward motion with the linear system with a continued
risk for wind damage before perhaps weakening near the MS River
towards midday/early afternoon.

Farther west, a belt of south-southwesterly midlevel flow near 50 kt
will be maintained from CO to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed
low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone
is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast CO this afternoon
and then progress northeastward across NE/SD overnight. In the wake
of the morning storms, richer low-level moisture will advect
northward in tandem with a warm front. Model guidance continues to
delay storm development for much of the day as an EML overspreads a destabilizing airmass across the north-central US. A few storms
will be possible in ND during the afternoon with perhaps an isolated
severe risk developing.

Much of the severe threat will likely focus after dark immediately
north of the lee cyclone into SD. Westward advection of richer
moisture and ascent preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle
embedded speed maxima aloft) will likely support elevated
thunderstorm development overnight across western SD into southern
ND. The environment will favor elevated supercells and small
thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
gusts.

Farther east, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across WI by late evening/early tonight along the northeast edge of
the warm elevated mixed layer. Sufficient moistening above the
surface and large CAPE will favor the potential for at least
isolated large hail/strong gusts with largely elevated storms
tonight.

...Carolinas/southern VA this afternoon/evening...
A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern
Appalachians will move into the Piedmont by this afternoon. A moist
airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2 inches) will
heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds more prevalent
over western NC. By early to mid afternoon, steepened 0-2 km lapse
rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30 kt)
may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing thunderstorm
clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph gusts) will
be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded
thunderstorm cores.

...West TX late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will favor isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 281633
SWODY1
SPC AC 281631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 281630Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...CAROLINAS...AND A PART OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas.
Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts
of the Carolinas.

...Dakotas/northern Plains...
A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be
maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed
low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone
is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this
afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South
Dakota overnight.

A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon
with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary
regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat
will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone
into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads
west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent
preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima
aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across
western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment
will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small
thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this
morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's
southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly
uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the
remainder of the night.

Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed
layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will
favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts
with mostly elevated storms tonight.

...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening...
A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern
Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this
afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2
inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that
are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30
kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing
thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph
gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset.

...West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/28/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 282001
SWODY1
SPC AC 281959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected mainly tonight across the Dakotas.
Large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Thunderstorms capable of scattered wind damage are possible in parts
of the Carolinas.

...20Z Update...
The SLGT risk in eastern IA was removed, given recent convective
trends and displacement from the parent/weakening MCV. The MRGL risk
in the wake of this activity was also trimmed in parts of the
Midwest, where robust capping at the base of the EML will limit thunderstorm/severe potential.

Farther west, the SLGT risk in the northern Plains was expanded
slightly southwestward in southwest SD, where steepening midlevel
lapse rates and around 60 kt of effective shear will promote large
hail with intensifying elevated supercells overnight.

..Weinman.. 06/28/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026/

...Dakotas/northern Plains...
A belt of south-southwesterly mid-level flow near 50 kt will be
maintained from Colorado to the Dakotas, east of the broad closed
low over the northern Great Basin/Rockies. A separate lee cyclone
is expected to form in the vicinity of northeast Colorado this
afternoon and then progress northeastward across Nebraska/South
Dakota overnight.

A few storms will be possible in North Dakota during the afternoon
with perhaps an isolated severe risk developing, but the primary
regional severe risk is expected tonight. Much of the severe threat
will likely focus after dark immediately north of the lee cyclone
into South Dakota as low-level moisture steadily spreads
west-northwestward. This increasing moisture and forcing for ascent
preceding the surface cyclone (and subtle embedded speed maxima
aloft) will likely support thunderstorm development overnight across
western South Dakota into southern North Dakota. The environment
will favor supercells, which will tend to be elevated, and small
thunderstorm clusters capable of large to very large hail and severe
wind gusts.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
A bowing cluster has weakened and tended to grow downscale this
morning but otherwise persists across eastern Iowa at midday. Some redevelopment/re-intensification could occur on the cluster's
southern periphery near a warm front. However, this is highly
uncertain given the increasing mid-level capping/EML advection the
remainder of the night.

Later tonight, a zone of low-level warm advection will be focused
across Wisconsin along the northeast edge of the warm elevated mixed
layer. Sufficient moistening above the surface and large CAPE will
favor the potential for at least isolated large hail/strong gusts
with mostly elevated storms tonight.

...Carolinas and far southern Virginia this afternoon/evening...
A convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over the southern
Appalachians will move southeastward into the Piedmont by this
afternoon. An airmass sampled by area 12 UTC raobs (PW near 2
inches) will heat/destabilize to the south of a patch of clouds that
are more prevalent over western North Carolina. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and a belt of slightly stronger westerly 3-6 km flow (30
kt) may act to loosely organize cold pools of developing
thunderstorm clusters. Isolated to scattered wind damage (50-60 mph
gusts) will be the primary hazard with the more intense water-loaded thunderstorm cores until around sunset.

...West Texas late this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating and deep mixing along a sharpening dryline
will allow high-based thunderstorm development from late afternoon
through late evening. Flow aloft will be weak, but inverted-V
profiles will yield isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 290057
SWODY1
SPC AC 290055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight across the Dakotas. Large
to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. More
isolated severe storms capable of large will be possible in northern
Wisconsin late tonight into early tomorrow morning.

...Discussion...
Water vapor imagery this evening shows a mid-level trough located
across northern Montana into Alberta/Saskatchewan. At the surface, a
low is occluding to the north across southern Alberta, with a
secondary low developing across eastern Colorado. A surface cold
front extends across portions of the western Dakotas north to the
occluding front in Canada. As the surface low in Colorado deepens
and moves northeastward late this evening, thunderstorm activity is
expected to increase in coverage near the low/cold front and along a
warm front lifting into the Upper Midwest.

...Northern Plains...
Initial thunderstorm development has occurred this evening within a
zone of weak low-level convergence in central/western North Dakota
as enhanced mid-level westerly flow overspreads the region from the
trough to the west. Daytime heating and dew points in the upper 60s
F have led to strong buoyancy across the region. Low-level flow is
rather weak but deep layer shear around 50-55 kts will likely
support a few isolated supercells capable of large to very large
hail. See MCD#1369 for more information.

Additional thunderstorm activity is progged to develop overnight as
the surface low moves northward and forcing for ascent continues to
increase. Aforementioned strong instability and deep layer shear
profiles will support supercells capable of large to very large
hail. The Slight Risk was maintained with this update to account for
this potential overnight. See MCD#1370 for more information.

...Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorm development is expected along and north of a warm front
lifting into northern Wisconsin late tonight into early Monday
morning. As the warm front lifts northward, moisture and instability
will increase from the south. Moderate to strong instability
overlapping increasing deep layer shear from the trough to the west
will support a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters with
potential for large hail. A Marginal Risk was maintained across central/northern Wisconsin and extended into the northern Lower
Michigan Peninsula to account for this potential.

...West Texas...
A few stronger storms may continue across portions of western Texas
near dryline and south to the Trans Pecos with a few instances of
marginally severe hail and gusty winds. Loss of daytime heating
should limit the duration of this risk past sunset with storms
decreasing in coverage and intensity.

..Thornton.. 06/29/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 290602
SWODY1
SPC AC 290600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the northern Plains
into the Upper Midwest today. Large hail and severe winds are the
primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will advance eastward from the northern Rockies
into the northern Plains today. At the surface, a low will move
northward out of Nebraska into the Dakotas, with a cold front/dry
line extending southward to a secondary low across the central
Plains. Thunderstorm activity is likely to be ongoing at the start
of the period near the northern surface low across portions of the
Dakotas. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected in the wake of
the morning convection near the warm front lifting across North
Dakota into Minnesota and near the cold front back into portions of
the Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains.

...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Elevated supercell activity is likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period across portions of the Dakotas near the surface low and
nose of the low-level jet axis. The environment will be
characterized by moderate to strong instability and strong deep
layer shear. Guidance suggests that this will have the potential to
produce large to very large hail and damaging wind.

As the low develops, a warm front will extend into North
Dakota/Minnesota by the afternoon. Evolution of the morning activity
remains uncertain, but it appears that additional storms will
develop near the warm front and back near the low/cold front into
the afternoon. Near the warm front, filtered heating through broken
low to mid-level cloud cover will allow for moderate instability by
the afternoon. A plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates will
advect northward through the afternoon. The favorable thermodynamic
profiles and strong deep layer shear around 45-50 kts will support
potential for supercells. If these storms can become surface based,
they will be capable of all hazards.

Back west near the cold front/low, initial supercells are possible
by the afternoon. These will have potential primarily for large hail
and damaging wind. Boundary parallel deep-layer shear will likely
lead to clustering/upscale growth with time. Strong to extreme
instability is expected ahead of the cold front across portions of
the western Dakotas into the Midwest. As the low-level jet increases
into the evening, it is possible that a corridor of more favorable
damaging wind potential (including significant gusts 75+ mph) may
evolve. For now, confidence in convective evolution is low with a
few CAMs suppressing convection towards the evening along the front
amid the strong EML until later in the evening around 06z.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline in Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas. Moderate instability is expected within this
region with generally weak deep layer shear. This will likely keep
more widespread severe potential low. However, a few stronger storms
may be capable of strong winds given deeply mixed profiles. For now,
this potential remains too isolated to include probabilities.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291224
SWODY1
SPC AC 291222

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of an intense swath of severe wind
gusts are likely across northeast South Dakota into northwest
Minnesota through midday. Later today, severe thunderstorms are
possible from parts of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.
Large hail and severe winds are the primary concerns, though a
couple of tornadoes may also occur.

...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies. This upper disturbance will acquire a
negative tilt and move into the central Dakotas by early evening. A
surface low over the north-central Plains will develop northward
into eastern ND by 00z as a warm front advances northward across
much of MN.

Through midday, an intense supercell over northeast SD will continue
to move quickly northeastward through parts of the eastern Dakotas
this morning and into northwest MN. Recent CAM model guidance
(i.e., time-lagged HRRR) has been remarkably consistent in showing
the evolution of the SD thunderstorm complex into northern MN today.
Have upgraded to an Enhanced Risk downstream of this extremely
intense supercell evolving into a bow within a focused mesoscale
corridor. Please refer to MCD #1376 for short-term forecast
details.

Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the Upper Midwest. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are forecast by late afternoon as large-scale ascent
associated with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region.
Ample deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity.
Towards the early evening, additional storms are likely to develop
farther east over MN with a hail/wind threat likely persisting
through the evening.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe gusts with the more intense cores.

..Smith/Jewell.. 06/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 291655
SWODY1
SPC AC 291654

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper
Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large
hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.

...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across
north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the
north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be
prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may
increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm
front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion
1379.

Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including
recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across
Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward
into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will
support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated
with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample
deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity,
especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress
into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.

...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida...
Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be
possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with
some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly
stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.

..Guyer/Supinie.. 06/29/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 292008
SWODY1
SPC AC 292007

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 292000Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected today across the Dakotas, Upper
Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds, large
hail and a few tornadoes this afternoon through tonight.

...20Z Update...
The most noteworthy change with this update was the addition of
10-percent tornado probabilities (with CIG1) over parts of eastern
ND into northwestern MN. Here, the latest surface observations and
visible satellite imagery indicate a warm front moving slowly
northward. In the wake of an earlier MCS, diurnal heating of a moist
air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) and steep midlevel lapse rates should
yield sufficient boundary-layer recovery for the development of
surface-based storms ahead of a surface low tracking northward
across the Dakotas this afternoon and evening. Related strong
buoyancy (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and increasingly large
clockwise-curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2 effective SRH) near the
boundary will support a locally favorable corridor for a few
supercell tornadoes (some of which could be strong).

..Weinman.. 06/29/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026/

...Dakotas/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest...
Of short-term focus/concern, is a long-lived storm cluster across
north-central Minnesota that has begun to grow upscale again to the
north of a warm front. Damaging winds and large hail will be
prominent concerns this afternoon, and tornado potential may
increase particularly with southern flank development near the warm
front. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion
1379.

Later this afternoon, a very moist airmass will become very unstable
over parts of the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, including
recovery in the wake of the early day storm complex across
Minnesota. While lesser instability is expected north-northwestward
into North Dakota, more modest buoyancy and long hodographs will
support severe storms. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast by afternoon/early evening as large-scale ascent associated
with the approaching upper wave overspreads the region. Ample
deep-layer shear coupled with the large buoyancy will favor
supercells. Large to very large hail, a couple of tornadoes, and
severe wind gusts will be possible with this surface-based activity,
especially as storms grow upscale this evening and progress
into/across parts of Iowa/Minnesota.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas...
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible near the dryline.
Moderate instability is expected within this region with generally
weak deep layer shear. Strong evaporatively cooled downdrafts will
be capable of severe wind gusts with the more intense cores.

...Southern Appalachians and parts of Georgia/Florida...
Strong to locally severe storms capable of downbursts will be
possible within a moist/unstable environment this afternoon, with
some degree of storm organization possible as aided by a modestly
stronger belt of northeasterly flow aloft.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300053
SWODY1
SPC AC 300051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening across the Dakotas,
Upper Midwest and Middle Missouri Valley, including damaging winds,
large hail and a few tornadoes.

...Northern Plains and Midwest...
Thunderstorm activity has initiated across eastern Nebraska near the
cold front this evening, with additional areas of towering cu noted
into northern Kansas. As the low-level jet strengthens and ascent
increases with the approaching wave, it is likely additional
thunderstorm development will occur into the evening. Guidance
suggests that a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters will
emerge and spread east northeastward into far southeastern
SD/northwestern IA and western MN. Strong to extreme instability and
steep lapse rates downstream will likely support potential for
damaging wind, with some significant gusts 75+ mph possible. Large
to very large hail will also be possible where supercells can
maintain semi-discrete mode. An upgrade to Enhanced was made with
this update to account for this potential. See MCD#1386 for
additional information on the short term severe potential.

Further north across eastern North Dakota into western/central
Minnesota near the surface low/warm front interface, potential will
continue for supercells capable of all hazards including large hail,
damaging wind, and strong tornadoes. See MCD#1387 for more
information.

...Southwest Texas to the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles...
Thunderstorm activity continues across southwestern Texas into the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles near the dryline. Very warm temperatures
and dry mixed boundary layer conditions will continue to pose some
potential for damaging winds until sunset this evening.

...Georgia into northern Florida Peninsula...
A cluster of thunderstorms continues to move southwestward across southern/central Georgia this evening. Ahead of this cluster, hot
and moderately unstable conditions will continue to pose potential
for water loaded downdrafts that my produce strong to severe winds.

..Thornton.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300556
SWODY1
SPC AC 300555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...PARTS OF NEW YORK
AND VERMONT...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS......

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on
today.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level low will move into Saskatchewan/Manitoba today, with
west southwesterly flow aloft overspreading portions of northern
Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. A frontal boundary will extend from a surface low across
Manitoba southward across the Upper Midwest into the Central Plains,
with a dryline extending southward into the Southern Plains. Across
the Northeast, enhanced northwesterly flow aloft will impinge upon
the northeastern periphery of a high amplitude ridge across the
eastern US.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A southwesterly low-level jet is set to increase across
central/northern Wisconsin by late afternoon. This in combination
with forcing for ascent from the upper-level trough should support
convection developing near the surface boundary across northern
Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. To the south/east of
the boundary, a very moist air mass with 70s dewpoints is forecast.
Strong to extreme instability is forecast across this region amid
strong deep layer shear profiles, supporting initial supercells
capable of large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. With
time, clustering may support potential for an increase in damaging
wind potential.

Guidance also suggests further development may occur by late evening
across portions of Nebraska into northern Iowa as the surface
boundary begins to shift northward with a short-wave impulse
rotating through the upper trough. This will pose some potential for
damaging wind and hail through the late evening/overnight period.
Forecast soundings suggests this activity may remain elevated,
leading to lower confidence in higher probabilities.

...Northeast...
A belt of 45 kt northwesterly flow aloft will overspread portions of
the Northeast this afternoon. Guidance suggests that thunderstorms
will develop across the region by the afternoon. Deep layer shear
around 35-40 kts and moderate instability thunderstorm development
is forecast across the region. This will support transient
supercells before one or more clusters/bowing segments develop and
spread south and eastward with damaging wind potential. A stronger
supercell or two may be capable of a tornado or two.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave will eject across the central Plains this
afternoon, with widely scattered thunderstorm development expected
near the surface trough/dryline in the afternoon/evening. A
southerly low-level jet is progged to increase across the area
through the evening. Moderate to strong instability is progged amid
steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initial high-based convection
will pose potential for large hail and damaging wind. With clustering/consolidation along outflows, the damaging wind threat
will increase with potential for instances of significant winds
70-80 mph.

...Southeastern US...
Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt mid-level northeasterly flow on
the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN
Valley. A very moist air mass will be present across much of the
region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime
heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops
west/southwest through early evening.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301236
SWODY1
SPC AC 301234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 301300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN
KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK AND OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable over parts of the
central High Plains, with severe wind gusts (60 to 85 mph) being the
primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low
near the ND/Canadian border and a weak disturbance cresting a
mid-level ridge over southeastern ON and moving towards NY.
Downstream of a mid-level trough over the Southwest, a couple of
weak mid-level vorticity maxima over the southern and central High
Plains will slowly migrate northeast around the periphery of a
mid-level anticyclone centered over TN. A front will push east
across parts of the Upper Midwest and extend southwestward into the
central High Plains near a weak low. A weak lee trough/dryline will
focus storm development from western KS southward into the southern
High Plains.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Perhaps associated with a weak disturbance, scattered thunderstorms
are forecast later this afternoon over the High Plains on the
western rim of richer low-level moisture and strong insolation.
Model guidance shows considerable erosion of the capping layer by
mid afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg over the TX South
Plains to 3500 J/kg over western KS. Initially higher-based
convection will gradually move east into richer moisture and promote
larger thunderstorm cores and increased potential for storm clusters
to develop. Large hail will be possible with any supercell activity
(i.e., most probable from the northern TX Panhandle into KS; 25-40
kt effective shear). However, very steep surface to 300-mb lapse
rates will favor strong evaporative cooling with the more intense
cores. Ample deep-layer shear for organized storms but
veering/backing of flow with height will aid in storm outflow
aggregating as linear clusters become the primary storm mode with
time. These organized but linear clusters will likely be efficient
in promoting severe wind gusts (60-85 mph) during the early evening,
coincident with a strengthening LLJ and WAA before this threat wanes
by late evening. Weaker deep-layer shear farther south in the
southern High Plains will likely limit both storm organization and
overall coverage of the wind risk.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
An ongoing area of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the upper
MS Valley will likely translate east-northeast today in conjunction
with a convectively augmented mid-level disturbance over southern MN
this morning. Ahead of this activity, a fetch of very rich moisture
will be maintained within south-southwesterly low-level flow. As
the boundary layer destabilizes ahead of this disturbance,
additional storms are forecast to develop later today within a very
to extremely unstable airmass. Ample tropospheric flow will support
organized storms, including supercells capable primarily of a
hail/wind risk and perhaps a tornado. By late evening,
strengthening WAA across NE and the mid MO Valley implies widely
scattered storms developing during the mid-late evening, with this
activity shifting northeast during the overnight. Isolated
hail/wind are the main threats with the stronger storms.

...Northeast...
A belt of 30-40 kt 500-mb northwesterly flow will reside across the
Northeast today. There is uncertainty regarding boundary layer
destabilization over portions of this region. Nonetheless, weak to
moderate destabilization is progged by model guidance with isolated
to scattered storms developing by early afternoon. A couple of
short-lived supercells are possible before one or more
clusters/bowing segments develop and spread south and eastward with
damaging wind potential.

...Southeastern US...
Located to the south of an upper high centered over the OH/TN
Valley, a very moist air mass will be present across much of the
region. Strong heating will yield moderate buoyancy by early
afternoon. Forecast soundings depict around 20-kt effective shear
which will aid in minor multicellular organization. Localized 50-60
mph gusts capable of isolated wind damage will probably accompany
the stronger storms.

..Smith/Dean.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301652
SWODY1
SPC AC 301650

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 301630Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the
central High Plains, with severe wind gusts (60 to 85 mph) being the
primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great Lakes and Northeast, as
well as broader parts of the central Plains to middle Missouri
Valley.

...Southern/Central Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon over the
High Plains on the western rim of richer low-level moisture and
strong insolation. Model guidance shows considerable erosion of the
capping layer by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg
over the Texas South Plains to 3500 J/kg over western Kansas.
Initially higher-based convection will gradually move east into
richer moisture and promote larger thunderstorm cores and increased
potential for storm clusters to develop. Large hail will be possible
with any initial supercell activity (i.e., most probable from the
northern Texas Panhandle into Kansas; 25-40 kt effective shear).
However, very steep surface to 300-mb lapse rates will favor strong
evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Ample deep-layer
shear will exist for organized storms, but veering/backing of flow
with height will aid in storm outflow aggregating as linear clusters
become the primary storm mode with time. These organized but linear
clusters will likely be efficient in promoting severe wind gusts
(60-85 mph) during the early evening, coincident with a
strengthening LLJ and WAA before this threat wanes by late evening.
Weaker deep-layer shear farther south in the southern High Plains
will likely limit both storm organization and overall coverage of
the wind risk.

Later into this evening, confidence has increased in mainly
nocturnal development in a post-frontal environment, that will
probably have its genesis by early evening in the vicinity of
northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. These storms will likely
increase/expand northeastward tonight with large hail and damaging
wind potential, which could actually increase and become somewhat
more prominent overnight across northern Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota and neighboring Siouxland as storms cluster and as the warm
front quickly shifts northward regionally.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A few strong storms could occur early this afternoon across northern
Michigan, but primary concern is the potential for redevelopment
later today, potentially focused along a zone of modifying
outflow/differential heating, with robust instability to the south.
Although the degree of mid-level capping is a key uncertainty, where
storms do redevelop, ample tropospheric flow will support organized
storms, including supercells capable primarily of a hail/wind risk
and perhaps a tornado. Storms will likely become more probable and
increase this evening with at least some hail and wind potential
continuing tonight.

...Northeast States...
A cluster of storms over southeast Ontario at midday will likely
continue to progress southeastward over Lake Ontario toward northern
New York today. See Mesoscale Discussion 1396 for additional
details. These storms coincide with a 30-40 kt belt of northwesterly
mid-level flow that resides on the immediate periphery of a
gradually building upper-level ridge and associated elevated mixed
layer. Residual cloud cover, via overnight/pre-dawn decayed
convection, casts a bit of uncertainty regarding boundary layer
destabilization over portions of this region, especially with
northeastward extent. Nonetheless, increasing storm
coverage/intensity is expected this afternoon including
clusters/bowing segments and possibly a few supercells.

...Southeast...
Located to the south of an upper high centered over the Tennessee
Valley, a very moist air mass is present across much of the region.
Strong heating will yield moderate buoyancy by early afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict around 20-kt effective shear which will
aid in minor multicellular organization. Localized 50-60 mph gusts
capable of isolated wind damage will accompany the stronger storms.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 301959
SWODY1
SPC AC 301957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 302000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WESTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are still expected across parts of
the central High Plains, with severe wind gusts (60 to 85 mph) being
the primary hazard during the late afternoon and evening. Other
severe thunderstorms are still expected across the Great Lakes and
Northeast, as well as broader parts of the central Plains to middle
Missouri Valley.

...20Z Update...
The most noteworthy change made to the Day 1 Outlook for the 20Z
update was to join the two Slight Risk areas, driven by wind
probabilities, across the Plains to the Great Lakes. Furthermore,
the CIG1 area was expanded northeast into the Upper MS Valley.
Guidance consensus has consistently depicted a persistent region of
likely cold-pool-driven convection propagating around the upper
ridge periphery, from the central Plains this evening, toward the
Great Lakes through 12Z tomorrow morning. Uncertainty remains
regarding the overall morphology and evolution of this convection,
hence the constraining of severe wind probabilities to Category
2/Slight risk. However, overnight storms will traverse an elongated
axis of strong buoyancy, characterized by 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse
rates atop 70+ F surface dewpoints (per 18Z OAX and GRB observed
soundings), along with forecast 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear.
As such, if more organized storm modes (particularly bow echoes) can
develop tonight, a couple of 75+ mph gusts could occur.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with mainly minor
changes made to thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
consensus among the latest observations and numerical guidance.

..Squitieri.. 06/30/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon over the
High Plains on the western rim of richer low-level moisture and
strong insolation. Model guidance shows considerable erosion of the
capping layer by mid-afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from 1500 J/kg
over the Texas South Plains to 3500 J/kg over western Kansas.
Initially higher-based convection will gradually move east into
richer moisture and promote larger thunderstorm cores and increased
potential for storm clusters to develop. Large hail will be possible
with any initial supercell activity (i.e., most probable from the
northern Texas Panhandle into Kansas; 25-40 kt effective shear).
However, very steep surface to 300-mb lapse rates will favor strong
evaporative cooling with the more intense cores. Ample deep-layer
shear will exist for organized storms, but veering/backing of flow
with height will aid in storm outflow aggregating as linear clusters
become the primary storm mode with time. These organized but linear
clusters will likely be efficient in promoting severe wind gusts
(60-85 mph) during the early evening, coincident with a
strengthening LLJ and WAA before this threat wanes by late evening.
Weaker deep-layer shear farther south in the southern High Plains
will likely limit both storm organization and overall coverage of
the wind risk.

Later into this evening, confidence has increased in mainly
nocturnal development in a post-frontal environment, that will
probably have its genesis by early evening in the vicinity of
northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. These storms will likely
increase/expand northeastward tonight with large hail and damaging
wind potential, which could actually increase and become somewhat
more prominent overnight across northern Nebraska/southeast South
Dakota and neighboring Siouxland as storms cluster and as the warm
front quickly shifts northward regionally.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A few strong storms could occur early this afternoon across northern
Michigan, but primary concern is the potential for redevelopment
later today, potentially focused along a zone of modifying
outflow/differential heating, with robust instability to the south.
Although the degree of mid-level capping is a key uncertainty, where
storms do redevelop, ample tropospheric flow will support organized
storms, including supercells capable primarily of a hail/wind risk
and perhaps a tornado. Storms will likely become more probable and
increase this evening with at least some hail and wind potential
continuing tonight.

...Northeast States...
A cluster of storms over southeast Ontario at midday will likely
continue to progress southeastward over Lake Ontario toward northern
New York today. See Mesoscale Discussion 1396 for additional
details. These storms coincide with a 30-40 kt belt of northwesterly
mid-level flow that resides on the immediate periphery of a
gradually building upper-level ridge and associated elevated mixed
layer. Residual cloud cover, via overnight/pre-dawn decayed
convection, casts a bit of uncertainty regarding boundary layer
destabilization over portions of this region, especially with
northeastward extent. Nonetheless, increasing storm
coverage/intensity is expected this afternoon including
clusters/bowing segments and possibly a few supercells.

...Southeast...
Located to the south of an upper high centered over the Tennessee
Valley, a very moist air mass is present across much of the region.
Strong heating will yield moderate buoyancy by early afternoon.
Forecast soundings depict around 20-kt effective shear which will
aid in minor multicellular organization. Localized 50-60 mph gusts
capable of isolated wind damage will accompany the stronger storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010107
SWODY1
SPC AC 010106

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0806 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of the
central High Plains, with severe wind gusts being the primary
hazard. Other severe thunderstorms are still possible across the
Great Lakes and Northeast, as well as broader parts of the central
Plains to middle Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Between a broad large-scale trough over the West and an expansive
upper ridge over the eastern half of the CONUS, a belt of enhanced
midlevel southwesterly flow is yielding around 40-50 kt of effective
shear from the central Plains into the upper MS Valley. Here,
middle/upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates (sampled by 00Z observed soundings) are contributing to
moderate-strong surface-based buoyancy. Despite gradual nocturnal boundary-layer cooling, this buoyancy and deep-layer shear will
continue to promote the development of loosely organized convective
clusters and supercell structures spreading northeastward overnight.
The primary concern with this activity will be damaging/severe wind
gusts (some upwards of 75 mph) and large hail.

...Northeast...
A band of thunderstorms tracking southeastward across southern
Ontario could spread into parts of NY tonight, and given an
established cold pool, damaging winds will be possible. However,
surface observations and the 00Z ALB sounding suggest lingering
low-level static stability in the wake of earlier convection may
limit the overall severe risk.

..Weinman.. 07/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 010602
SWODY1
SPC AC 010600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. Damaging wind gusts (some to
80 mph) are the main concern, in addition to isolated large to very
large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms are
possible across parts of the the central High Plains and Northeast.

...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes ...
Within a belt of strong midlevel southwesterly flow extending from
the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, a
convectively augmented midlevel impulse should be the focus for
ongoing/morning strong-severe storms over parts of southern MN and
vicinity. This activity will mainly pose a risk for damaging gusts
and possibly large hail. These storms should continue
developing/spreading east-northeastward into the Upper Midwest along
a stationary boundary, where diurnal heating of a moist air mass and
steep lapse rates will lead to strong surface-based buoyancy. This,
combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor a mix of
supercells and organized clusters. Scattered damaging wind gusts,
large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.
Thereafter, high-resolution guidance is in general agreement,
depicting a second round of upstream thunderstorm development during
the afternoon/evening in the vicinity of southern MN -- likely in
response to a strengthening low-level jet and related isentropic
lift. Similarly, these storms should spread east-northeastward
through a strongly unstable air mass and 40-50 kt of effective shear
(with increasing clockwise-curved hodographs). Swaths of damaging
winds (some gusts near 80 mph possible), large to very large hail,
and a few tornadoes will be possible.

...Central High Plains...
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a
north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable air
mass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts
and large hail.

...Northeast...
Enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the
Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts
uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong
buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear)
will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of
damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon and again
during the evening/nighttime hours.

...Southeast...
Along the southern periphery of a midlevel anticyclone centered over
the central Appalachians, a belt of 20-30-kt east-southeasterly flow
in the 700-500-mb layer will overspread a hot/moist air mass with
4500 J/kg MLCAPE during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer
shear, the extreme buoyancy and well-mixed boundary layer will be
favorable for wet microbursts with the stronger convective clusters
that evolve.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
slow-moving midlevel trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding
the trough, around 40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow and a weakly
unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters
capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and
evening.

..Weinman/Chalmers.. 07/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011237
SWODY1
SPC AC 011235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes today and tonight. A couple of tornadoes are
possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more
widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very large hail.
Additional severe storms are possible across parts of the central
High Plains and Northeast.

...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes ...
Showers and thunderstorms this morning are moving east over the
Upper Midwest and are associated with a couple of MCVs over
northwest IA and the SD-MN border. The ongoing strong to locally
severe thunderstorm activity is situated in the vicinity of a
west-east oriented frontal zone draped from MN east across WI and
into the U.P. of MI. (see MCD #1413 for short-term details). The
airmass south of the boundary is very moist with lower to mid 70s F
surface dewpoints.

The Sioux Falls, SD (KFSD), Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), and the La
Crosse, WI (KARX) VAD this morning are sampling a belt of strong
southwesterly mid- to high-level flow (50+ kt in the 5-9km ARL
layer). KARX has recently sensed an intensification of flow in the
3-6 km layer, which may influence the threat for wind damage/large
hail beyond an isolated basis and beginning as early as late
morning. Furthermore, it seems the strengthening of flow as
depicted in some model guidance (upwards of 40-45 kt at 700 mb) may
be of consequence for organizing multicells but also supercells
during the day. The details concerning the tornado risk remain
unclear and will likely remain mesoscale dependent and related to
the persistence of morning convection and the airmass recovery, but
it seems plausible the threat for supercell tornadoes would perhaps
focus over WI and possibly extend into southern MN/northern IA this
afternoon in wake of this morning's WAA-driven activity. Large to
very large hail will be possible with the more intense storms in
addition to wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-75
mph) as storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters
developing.

...Central and southern High Plains...
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a
north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable
airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts
and large hail. Farther south, weaker flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates will support severe gusts with
the more intense downdrafts.

...Northeast...
Enhanced west-northwesterly midlevel flow will persist across the
Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong
buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear)
will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection capable of
damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the afternoon and again
during the evening/nighttime hours.

...Southeast...
Along the southern periphery of a midlevel anticyclone centered over
the central Appalachians, weak easterly flow through much of the
troposphere will overspread a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE during the afternoon. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms
are forecast. The stronger water-loaded wet microbursts will yield
localized gusts of 50-65 mph and be capable of wind damage.

...MT into the northern Great Basin...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
slow-moving midlevel trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding
the trough, around 40 kt of midlevel southwesterly flow and a weakly
unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized clusters
capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon and
evening. Have extended low-severe probabilities farther south into
ID/NV/UT where inverted-V profiles will support isolated severe
gusts.

..Smith/Dean.. 07/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 011658
SWODY1
SPC AC 011656

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of
tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be
the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very
large hail. Additional severe storms are possible across parts of
the central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley.

...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
An active multi-round day of severe weather is expected across the
region through tonight. Early this afternoon, ongoing severe risks
will continue to focus across northern Michigan as well as eastern
Wisconsin, with a secondary round of severe storms potentially
spreading into Lower Michigan later this afternoon. See existing
Mesoscale Discussions/Watches for short-term details.

Severe potential later today will focus on a convectively reinforced
boundary, with a very moist and potentially unstable environment
along and south of it. Renewed deep convective development is
expected later this afternoon into tonight across northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota, and again into Wisconsin. A ribbon of moderately
strong mid-level westerlies, some of it MCV-enhanced, will support
organized storm modes including supercells and fast-moving line
segments and potential upscale-MCS development. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to
wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-80+ mph) as
storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters
developing. Some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly
along the effective boundary and/or increasing this evening as a
southwesterly low-level reinvigorates.

...Central and southern High Plains...
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a
north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable
airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts
and large hail. Farther south into the southern High Plains, weaker
flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates
will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.

...Northeast...
Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the
Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially across much of New York and
Pennsylvania. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts
uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong
buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear quantitatively) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection
capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the
afternoon, and again during the evening/nighttime hours.

...Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
Along the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered
over the central Appalachians, easterly flow through much of the
troposphere resides atop a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE this afternoon. 12z observed soundings from Atlanta,
Birmingham, and Jackson MS notably sampled 25-35 kt winds between
3-6km AGL, which could aid in storm organization this afternoon. A
somewhat cooler thermal profile aloft was also noted with the 12z
Atlanta sounding with a relatively steep mid-level lapse rate
profile. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are expected
regionally, and seemingly with a somewhat greater coverage and
likelihood than a typical pulse-type scenario. The stronger
water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph
and be capable of wind damage.

...Montana and northern Great Basin...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
slow-moving mid-level trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding
the trough, around 40 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and a
weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized
clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon
and evening.

..Guyer/Moore.. 07/01/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 012007
SWODY1
SPC AC 012006

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 012000Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND GULF COAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still expected across
the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes into tonight. A couple of
tornadoes are possible but damaging wind gusts are expected to be
the more widespread hazard, in addition to isolated large to very
large hail. Severe storms also remain a concern across parts of the
central High Plains, Northeast, and Southeast/Tennessee Valley.

...20Z Update...
The main change made to this outlook was to expand the wind-driven
severe probabilities southward across portions of the Upper Midwest
based on observational trends. A belt of relatively thick cloud
cover exists across portions of the Midwest. However, considerable
clearing and a CU field, along with isolated thunderstorms, has
developed across eastern IA into southern WI, where appreciable
buoyancy (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and up to 40 kts of effective bulk
shear reside. Furthermore, a few of the latest WoFS runs also depict
some higher thunderstorm coverage across eastern IA into southern
WI. As such, the thinking is that organized severe potential, mainly
in the form of severe gusts, should exist across this region through
the evening.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, with relatively
minor changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to
reflect the latest observations and guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/01/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026/

...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
An active multi-round day of severe weather is expected across the
region through tonight. Early this afternoon, ongoing severe risks
will continue to focus across northern Michigan as well as eastern
Wisconsin, with a secondary round of severe storms potentially
spreading into Lower Michigan later this afternoon. See existing
Mesoscale Discussions/Watches for short-term details.

Severe potential later today will focus on a convectively reinforced
boundary, with a very moist and potentially unstable environment
along and south of it. Renewed deep convective development is
expected later this afternoon into tonight across northern Iowa and
southern Minnesota, and again into Wisconsin. A ribbon of moderately
strong mid-level westerlies, some of it MCV-enhanced, will support
organized storm modes including supercells and fast-moving line
segments and potential upscale-MCS development. Large to very large
hail will be possible with the more intense storms in addition to
wind, which may become more prevalent of a hazard (60-80+ mph) as
storm mergers lead to a couple of strong to severe clusters
developing. Some tornado potential may exist as well, particularly
along the effective boundary and/or increasing this evening as a
southwesterly low-level reinvigorates.

...Central and southern High Plains...
High-based thunderstorm development is expected along a
north/south-oriented lee trough/dryline during the afternoon and
evening. Despite modest deep-layer shear (around 25-30 kt), steep low/mid-level lapse rates will contribute to a strongly unstable
airmass. A mix of loosely organized clusters and possibly some
supercell structures will be capable of producing severe wind gusts
and large hail. Farther south into the southern High Plains, weaker
flow will limit overall storm organization, but steep lapse rates
will support severe gusts with the more intense downdrafts.

...Northeast...
Enhanced west-northwesterly mid-level flow will persist across the
Northeast, where a warm/moist air mass will contribute to around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE, especially across much of New York and
Pennsylvania. While nebulous mesoscale forcing for ascent casts
uncertainty on overall convective coverage and evolution, the strong
buoyancy and a veering wind profile (albeit modest deep-layer shear quantitatively) will favor east-southeastward-spreading convection
capable of damaging wind gusts and isolated hail during the
afternoon, and again during the evening/nighttime hours.

...Southeast/Tennessee Valley...
Along the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered
over the central Appalachians, easterly flow through much of the
troposphere resides atop a hot/moist air mass with 3000-4000 J/kg
MLCAPE this afternoon. 12z observed soundings from Atlanta,
Birmingham, and Jackson MS notably sampled 25-35 kt winds between
3-6km AGL, which could aid in storm organization this afternoon. A
somewhat cooler thermal profile aloft was also noted with the 12z
Atlanta sounding with a relatively steep mid-level lapse rate
profile. Strong to severe pulse thunderstorms are expected
regionally, and seemingly with a somewhat greater coverage and
likelihood than a typical pulse-type scenario. The stronger
water-loaded wet microbursts will yield localized gusts of 50-65 mph
and be capable of wind damage.

...Montana and northern Great Basin...
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of a
slow-moving mid-level trough moving across the Northwest. Preceding
the trough, around 40 kt of mid-level southwesterly flow and a
weakly unstable air mass will support a couple loosely organized
clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts during the afternoon
and evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020101
SWODY1
SPC AC 020059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across the Upper Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes this evening. A couple of tornadoes are possible but
damaging wind gusts are expected to be the more widespread hazard,
in addition to isolated large to very large hail. Severe storms also
remain a concern across parts of the central High Plains and the
Northeast.

...Midwest and Upper Great Lakes...
Steadily deepening convective activity has developed across the
surface boundary in southern Minnesota into northern/western Iowa.
Much of this region has been under the influence of a band of
mid-level cloud cover this afternoon. Comparison of the 18z and 00z
observed soundings from OAX indicate inhibition has eroded. Strong
buoyancy also remains across the area amid steep lapse rates and
ample deep layer shear. A southerly low-level jet is progged to
increase through the evening which should further support convective development. A mix of supercells and clustered multi-cell
thunderstorms is expected through the evening, given largely
boundary parallel shear. With the increase in the low-level jet, a
tornado or two will remain possible with any more discrete
supercells.

...Northeast...
A cluster of thunderstorms is advancing eastward into portions of
northwestern New York just east of Lake Ontario. Sufficient
instability remains across portions of central/southern New York,
with more rain cooled air from several rounds of showers to the
north. This cluster may pose some potential for occasional strong to
severe winds downstream through the evening given remaining warm
temperatures and moist profiles downstream.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity continues near the dryline
across Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The strongest deep
layer shear is located ahead of a short-wave impulse across western
Kansas, where 30-40 kts is analyzed in SPC mesoanalysis. Steep lapse
rates and deeply mixed profiles will support potential for damaging
wind and large hail with supercells through the evening.

...Southeast...
Several clusters of thunderstorms continue across portions of
Mississippi into eastern Louisiana/southern Arkansas this evening. A
few instances of strong to severe wind will continue before gradual
weakening occurs with loss of daytime heating over the next couple
of hours.

..Thornton.. 07/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020557
SWODY1
SPC AC 020555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the
southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms
may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and
parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
The upper level pattern across the US will be characterized by
troughing across the western US with a high amplitude ridge across
the eastern US. Between these features, several shortwave troughs
will rotate through the flow across the central/northern Plains into
the Midwest. A surface low will be located across eastern Montana
into the western Dakotas, with a surface boundary extending from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest...
Early morning convection is likely across some portion of North
Dakota in association with a vort max moving out of Montana. The
evolution of this activity will likely have implications on the
exact placement of the surface boundary by this afternoon across the
Dakotas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected near the
surface low and in the vicinity of the surface boundary/residual
outflow across the Dakotas by the afternoon. Coverage should
increase as a shortwave moves out of Montana into the
afternoon/evening with increasing forcing for ascent. Across the
northern High Plains, strong daytime heating amid steep low to
mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability.
This in combination with deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts will
support initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and
damaging wind. Through time, boundary parallel shear and large dew
point spreads promoting outflow dominate storms will likely support
one or more clusters/bowing segments moving south and east with
time, resulting in an increase in the damaging wind threat and
potential for a few significant gust 75+ mph.

...Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley...
A very moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place across
the Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon.
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
high terrain, with tendency to cluster along outflows. Consensus is
highest across the Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley for a more
focused corridor of damaging wind potential.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the lee trough
across the central High Plains this afternoon. Moderate instability
overlapping with around 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear will support
potential for a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters. Steep
low- to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature/dew point
spreads will support potential for severe gusts. Initial supercells
will pose potential for large hail.

...Northeast...
Northeasterly flow within the northern periphery of the eastern
ridge will allow for thunderstorm activity to track southward out of Quebec/Ontario across portions of the Northeast this afternoon. The
presence of moderate to strong instability and 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes with
the predominant hazard being damaging winds. Higher wind
probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk may be needed with
additional outlook updates if a more favorable corridor of wind
potential become clearer.

..Thornton/Chalmers.. 07/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021245
SWODY1
SPC AC 021243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe storms will be possible from the
northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into
tonight, as well as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee
Valley this afternoon and early evening.

...Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest...
A belt of moderate southwesterly flow will extend across the
north-central states through the period. A few ongoing clusters of showers/thunderstorms extend along residual outflow from WI to along
the MN-IA border vicinity. Farther west, a weak low analyzed near
the Black Hills and associated lee trough will aid in maintaining
southerly flow to the south of a residual frontal zone draped over
SD east-northeastward to near Lake Superior.

Some isolated severe risk may continue this morning with a small
cluster along the Dakotas border primarily to the north of the
front. Heating of a seasonably moist airmass (60s deg F north and
70s across eastern NE into IA) will contribute to moderate to strong instability by late afternoon. Afternoon thunderstorm development
is expected near the surface low and in the vicinity of the surface boundary/residual outflow across the Dakotas. Forecast model data
indicates deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts which will support
initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and severe
gusts. As additional storms develop and cold pools merge and result
in a few clusters evolving with time, the wind threat will likely
increase with stronger gusts associated with bowing segments. This
activity will likely persist well into the evening with some
lingering severe potentially into the overnight over the MN-IA
vicinity late.

...Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys...
A seasonably moist boundary layer is evident in surface observations
(lower 70s F surface dewpoints) this morning. Relatively cool
500-mb temperatures around -9 deg C (reference the 12 UTC Nashville,
TN raob) and strong heating will result in fairly steep lapse rates
across this region by early to mid afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are likely and a few stronger clusters will probably
evolve within a weak easterly flow regime to the southwest of an
mid-level anticyclone centered over southwest VA. The steepened 0-2
km lapse rates and high PW (1.5-1.75 inches) will support wet
microbursts capable of strong to severe gusts (locally 60-70 mph)
with the more intense water-loaded downdrafts. Modifying the
Nashville raob for forecast afternoon high temperatures in the upper
90s deg F yields extreme MLCAPE (4000+ J/kg). Due to the magnitude
of buoyancy, have highlighted higher probabilities to account for
increased confidence in a wet microburst threat. Isolated hail may
also accompany the more intense updrafts. This activity will
probably coalesce into a few clusters that gradually weaken during
the evening as the wind-damage threat subsides.

...Central High Plains...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the lee trough
across the central High Plains this afternoon. Moderate instability overlapping with around 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear will support
potential for a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Steep
low- to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature/dew point
spreads will support potential for severe gusts. Initial supercells
will pose potential for large hail.

...Northeast...
Northeasterly flow within the northern periphery of the eastern
ridge will allow for thunderstorm activity to track southward out of Quebec/Ontario across portions of the Northeast this afternoon.
Uncertainty remains regarding details of convective evolution and
potential corridors of greater threat. Nonetheless, moderate to
strong instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support
storm organization, with damaging gusts being the primary hazard
with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Dean.. 07/02/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021625
SWODY1
SPC AC 021624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND NORTHWEST IOWA....

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND OVER WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well
as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and early evening.

...SD to WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively
induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate
afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to
a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development,
but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As
such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.

Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from
southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in
northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through
the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe
wind/hail threat.

Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along
the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Western KS...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of
strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM
solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the
KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today
across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level
lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an
upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms.
However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually
result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this
afternoon and early evening across the region.

..Hart/Halbert.. 07/02/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS01 KWNS 022001
SWODY1
SPC AC 022000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...WESTERN KANSAS...AND
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions today into tonight, as well
as across the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and early evening.

...20Z Update...
Much of the previous forecast remains generally on track, especially
for portions of the central High Plains, the TN Valley, and northern
New England.

However, appreciable uncertainty still exists regarding the
potential for focused corridors of severe across much of the
northern Plains into the Great Lakes. Relatively robust supercell
evolution has occurred along mesoscale surface baroclinic
boundaries, amid generally weak upper-level support, to support
instances of 2-3 inch diameter hail over central/eastern SD, as well
as instances of brief and modest rotation with storms over
northeastern IA. Please see MCDs 1440-1441 for short-term details of
convective evolution. However, these storms are moving roughly
normal to boundary orientation, putting the duration of higher-end
severe into question. At least for portions of the Upper Midwest
though, there is a modest signal of an MCS traversing a baroclinic
boundary along the WI/IL border for multiple hours. A locally
greater concentration of damaging gusts could accompany this
activity through the afternoon, though confidence in this scenario
is not overly high either. Many of the ongoing storms (especially
over SD) are occurring over portions of the open warm sector
relatively early in the diurnal heating cycle, casting uncertainty
regarding the impacts the ongoing storms will have on later
afternoon initiation and evolution along other mesoscale boundaries.
As such, prudence was exercised in favor of making only minor
changes to the outlook to reflect the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026/

...SD to WI...
Morning water vapor imagery shows several weak and/or convectively
induced shortwave troughs moving across the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest. This area will have widespread marginal to moderate
afternoon CAPE and dewpoints in the 60s to lower 70s. This leads to
a forecast of a large area of potential thunderstorm development,
but with weak/nebulous forcing and general height-rises aloft. As
such, the overall confidence in this forecast is not very high.

Storms are likely to focus along a boundary currently evident from
southern SD into central IA. Convection currently developing in
northern IA near the boundary should continue to intensify through
the afternoon and track into southern WI/northern IL with a severe
wind/hail threat.

Other intense thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop along
the SD/NE portion of the boundary by mid/late afternoon, also with a
risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts.

...Western KS...
Full sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will lead to a region of
strong instability over western KS this afternoon. Most CAM
solutions suggest at least isolated thunderstorms form along the
KS/CO border and spread slowly eastward during the evening. A
deeply mixed boundary layer and sufficient CAPE suggest a risk of
damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.

...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread very moist and unstable air mass is present today
across this region, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level
lapse rates and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Weak forcing under an
upper ridge limits confidence in timing/location of storms.
However, widely scattered thunderstorm development should eventually
result in merging outflows and the risk of gusty/damaging winds this
afternoon and early evening across the region.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030046
SWODY1
SPC AC 030045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND EXTREME
NORTHWEST IOWA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES AND WESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are still possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions this evening. More isolated
severe storms will be possible across the Central High Plains.

...High Plains into the Midwest...
Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the
Dakotas into northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois.
Across the western Dakotas, clusters of multi-cell and supercells
are ongoing. Given moderate instability and some supercellular
modes, large hail to very large hail and damaging wind will continue
to be a threat through the evening. Additional thunderstorms may
move out of Montana and or southern Canada through the evening with
additional chances for large hail and damaging wind.

A cluster across southeastern South Dakota moving into
Minnesota/Iowa has a history of producing significant gusts 90-100
mph. More recent observations have been around 60-70 mph. It is
likely that the damaging wind potential will continue downstream for
the next couple of hours, with potential for additional development
along the trailing outflow into northern Nebraska later this
evening. The 00z sounding from OAX sampled a large cape profile with
steep low to mid-level lapse rates.Confidence in exact evolution
remains low but some CAM guidance does suggest a secondary MCS
structure may move eastward later this evening across northern Iowa.
Given the large MLCAPE gradient extending across southern South
Dakota into northern Iowa and a continued reservoir of steep low to
mid-level lapse rates, this may pose additional potential for
damaging wind through the evening.

...Central High Plains...
A few isolated supercells are ongoing across portions of eastern
Colorado, southern Nebraska, and western Kansas. These have had
occasional stronger MESH cores around 2 inches. The 00z sounding
from DDC sampled strong instability and steep low to mid-level lapse
rates amid large dew point depressions within the near surface
profile. Given strong deep layer shear, inverted v soundings, and
moderate to strong instability, these supercells will continue to
pose a risk for large to very large hail and severe wind.

...Northeast...
A line of thunderstorms is sagging southward out of Quebec. These
may pose some potential for a few instances of strong to severe wind
through the evening. See MCD#1455 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030555
SWODY1
SPC AC 030553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
The flow across the central US will modify today, becoming more
zonal as height rises begin across the southern Rockies. Upper-level
ridging will continue across the eastern US. A surface front will
extend across the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Upper
Great Lakes. Several clusters of thunderstorms are expected to
develop in the vicinity of this boundary. Additional scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northeast to
the Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee Valley and northern
Georgia.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Modest westerly flow will remain across the northern/central Plains
this afternoon, with a shortwave trough rotating through the flow
across the Dakotas into Minnesota by the evening. Scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected along and near a surface boundary
extending from the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A
reservoir of moderate to strong instability will remain amid a plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initially, a few supercells
are likely, particularly near the Black Hills in South Dakota and
across the central Dakotas. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and aforementioned steep lapse rates will support potential for large to
very large hail. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing
clusters is expected towards the evening, especially as forcing for
ascent increases with the shortwave and increasing low-level jet in
the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant
gusts 75+ mph, particularly across northeastern Nebraska into
western Iowa.

Additional isolated supercell development will be possible near the
surface trough and dry line from western Kansas into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Forcing will be weaker in this region, but
a few instances of large hail and severe wind will be possible.

...Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the
Northeast/Mid Atlantic...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across the
Midwest into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley in the vicinity of
residual outflow from overnight activity. Deep layer shear/flow will
be relatively weak but a moderately unstable and moist air mass will
support potential for a few clusters which produce swaths of
damaging wind.

A corridor of more favorable mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will
exist along the periphery of the ridge across the Northeast to the
northern Mid-Atlantic. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts may support
one or more organized clusters with damaging wind potential into the afternoon/early evening.

...TN Valley and northern GA...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow
across the region will be negligible but a very moist and unstable
air mass amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support
potential for wet downbursts.

..Thornton/Moore.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031231
SWODY1
SPC AC 031229

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern/Central Plains into the Mid MS Valley...
Several convective clusters are ongoing across the region this
morning, including one over western NE/northwest KS, another over
SD, and another over IA/southern MN. Evolution of these clusters and
their respective outflows will likely play a role in the location,
timing, and intensity of thunderstorms later this afternoon and
evening. Currently the outflow from the southern MN/IA cluster arcs
from east-central IA back southwestward through extreme southwest IA
and far southeast NE before intersecting the outflow from the
western NE/northwest KS cluster (which continues into northwest KS).
Much of the guidance suggests airmass recovery occurs north of this
outflow. Precipitation and associated cloud cover are currently in
place over western/central NE, but this cluster and its cloud cover
are quickly eroding from the west, matching trends within the
guidance and suggesting that there should be sufficient time for
airmass recovery across NE.

Strong to very strong buoyancy is anticipated south of the remnant
outflow boundary, fostered by temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s
and dewpoints in the upper 60s (perhaps even the low 70s).
Thunderstorm development is forecast along this boundary, with the
initial, more cellular storms capable of large to isolated very
large hail. Strong downbursts are possible as well.

Late afternoon thunderstorm development is possible farther west
from western SD into the NE Panhandle as well, fostered by a
combination of low-level convergence and modest large-scale forcing
for ascent. Less buoyancy is forecast here versus farther east, but
it will still be sufficient for robust updrafts, particularly across
NE where moist easterly low-level flow is anticipated. Moderate
vertical shear will likely support an initial supercell mode, with
large to very large hail and damaging gusts possible. A brief
tornado is also possible.

Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing clusters is expected
towards the evening, especially as the low-level jet increases in
the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant
gusts of 75+ mph, particularly from eastern Nebraska into western
Iowa.

...Lower Great Lakes/Northern Ohio Valley into the northern
Mid-Atlantic...
A pair of convectively augmented vorticity maxima, one over IA and
the other entering southern Lower MI, are forecast to progress
eastward within the moderate westerly flow aloft extending across
the region. Very warm and moist low-levels will support airmass
destabilization ahead of these vorticity maxima, resulting in
afternoon thunderstorms. Deep layer shear will be relatively weak
but the moderately unstable and moist air mass will still support
the potential for a few strong/severe clusters capable of damaging
wind gusts.

...Western KS into OK/TX Panhandles...
Isolated supercell development will be possible near the dry line
forecast to extend from western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle. Forcing will be weak in this region, but moderate
buoyancy and vertical shear could result in a few instances of large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...TN Valley and northern GA...
Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions
of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow
across the region will be weak but a very moist and unstable airmass
amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support potential for
wet downbursts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031602
SWODY1
SPC AC 031600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY
approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant
outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by
mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell
structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial
storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into
a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD
border with a risk of severe wind and hail.

...NE/IA/Northwest MO...
Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a
hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are
expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late
afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region
(MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a
risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening hours.

...IA/IL/IN/MI/OH...
A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS
river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very
moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal
CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on
convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there
is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind
damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this
evening.

...NY/PA/NJ...
Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast
states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will
form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the
environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any
convective clusters that can persist.

...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development
of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon
and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm
evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally
damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.

..Hart/Halbert.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031935
SWODY1
SPC AC 031933

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
A swath of damaging to severe gusts is expected across southern
Lower Michigan over the next few hours. Scattered damaging gusts are
also likely over portions of the Mid Atlantic. Otherwise, scattered
wind damage and large hail are still expected from parts of Nebraska
into Iowa today. Isolated to scattered severe storms remain possible
extending eastward from the northern/central Plains into the Midwest
and Tennessee Valley.

...20Z Update...
The main change made to this outlook was to upgrade southern Lower
MI to a Category 3/Enhanced Risk, driven by 30 percent/CIG1 wind
probabilities. A cold-pool-driven MCS, with some bowing tendencies
and a history of producing numerous measured gusts in the 60-70 mph,
is rapidly approaching southern Lower MI. KGRR inbound velocity data
shows a rear-inflow jet exists with this MCS, and surface
observations/latest mesoanalysis show a favorable environment in
place for bow-echo persistence. Surface temperatures are exceeding
90 F in spots, amid 70-75 F surface dewpoints, yielding a gradient
of 1500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. Up to 30 kts of effective bulk shear
coincides with this buoyancy gradient, with vectors oriented normal
to the MCS leading-line orientation. Therefore, the expectation is
for a damaging wind swath to occur over southern Lower MI with the
passage of this MCS. At least scattered gusts will likely exceed 50
kts in intensity, and a few of these gusts may exceed 75 mph.

30 percent wind-driven probabilities were also added over portions
of eastern PA into far southeastern NY and NJ, where surface
temperatures are exceeding 100 F in spots ahead of a developing
multicellular cluster. While vertical wind shear is modest, the
well-mixed boundary layer is yielding low-level lapse rates well
over 8 C/km on a widespread basis, with corresponding DCAPE
approaching 1500 J/kg. As such, several of the stronger storm cores
may produce wet downbursts capable of at least tree/wire damage on a
scattered basis, and a few severe gusts are also possible.

Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.

..Squitieri.. 07/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026/

...SD/NE...
Water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over central WY
approaching the Black Hills region. This, along with remnant
outflow boundaries from recent convection, will aid in the
development of scattered thunderstorms over western SD/NE by
mid/late afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates and supercell
structures will promote the risk of very large hail in the initial
storms over the Black Hills. Activity is expected to organized into
a bowing MCS during the evening and track roughly along the NE/SD
border with a risk of severe wind and hail.

...NE/IA/Northwest MO...
Moderately strong southerly low-level winds over KS will maintain a
hot/humid air mass across southeast NE today. Thunderstorms are
expected to intensify along pre-existing outflow boundaries by late
afternoon and develop/move into IA. Large CAPE in this region
(MLCAPE > 4000 J/kg) and sufficient westerly flow aloft will pose a
risk of supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds through
the evening hours.

...IA/IL/IN/MI/OH...
A remnant outflow boundary is also tracking eastward across the MS
river into northern IL. The air mass ahead of this boundary is very
moist and unstable with dewpoints in the mid 70s and peak diurnal
CAPE values expected to exceed 3500 J/kg. Models differ on
convective evolution of storms that form in this regime, but there
is potential for an upscale-growing MCS producing a swath of wind
damage from northern IL into parts of IN/MI and northwest OH this
evening.

...NY/PA/NJ...
Hot and humid conditions are present across much of the northeast
states today, with full sunshine leading to steep low-level lapse
rates and moderate CAPE. It is unclear how many thunderstorms will
form in this region today given weak forcing. However, the
environment is conditionally favorable for damaging winds in any
convective clusters that can persist.

...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...
A widespread moist and unstable air mass will aid in the development
of disorganized and slow-moving thunderstorms again this afternoon
and early evening. Weak winds aloft suggest chaotic storm
evolutions, but the strongest cells will pose a risk of locally
damaging winds gusts and small hail throughout the area.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040051
SWODY1
SPC AC 040050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging gusts will continue across portions of the Mid
Atlantic and the central/northern Plains. More isolated to scattered
severe storms will also continue across portions of the High Plains
to the northern Rockies.

...Discussion...
Several clusters of widely scattered thunderstorms in many different
regimes are ongoing across portions of the central and northern
Plains into the Midwest and across the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest
threat through the remainder of the evening will be for damaging
wind, with a few instances of large hail and perhaps a tornado from
the Plains to the Midwest.

Across the central/northern Plains, activity is mainly tied to lee
troughing and broad ascent from the mid-level shortwave trough. A
few embedded supercells will pose potential for large hail through
the evening but the main threat is shifting to become damaging wind,
with several clusters attempting to grow upscale. The more focused
corridor of severe wind threat through the evening will likely
extend from southeastern Nebraska into northern Kansas, where a more
robust line has developed amid a strongly unstable air mass. Deep
layer shear decreases with southward extent into Kansas, however,
storms may be driven by cold pool dynamics south and eastward
through the evening.

Across portions of southern South Dakota, western Nebraska, and
eastern Colorado, a few more discrete supercell clusters are
ongoing. This region will be where the greatest short term risk will
be for large to very large hail, particularly across western
Nebraska into southwestern South Dakota.

Across portions of the Midwest into the Great Lakes, a cluster of
storms is moving across northern Illinois towards the Chicago Metro.
This line is tracking along a MLCAPE gradient that extends across
northern Illinois into northern Indiana/southern Michigan. Storms
will likely advance eastward along this gradient through the
evening, with potential for damaging winds.

Another robust line is moving eastward through New York City and
northern New Jersey. This has produced a swath of measured severe
wind and continues eastward towards the coast.

..Thornton.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040602
SWODY1
SPC AC 040600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind.
Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains
Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind
gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal
flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the
Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around
30-40 kts will move through the trough in the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced
westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains.

...Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA
into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to
lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with
northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime
heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the
90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in
place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating,
low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to
strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will
be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless,
several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the
Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward
though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce
widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale
and develop strong cold pools.

Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection
further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer
shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will
be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern
Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward,
which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms
redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of
highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas
into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with
initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a
tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a
likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase
in damaging wind potential.

More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX
Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply
mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support
potential for both large hail and damaging wind.

...Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio
Valley...
There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms
into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate
to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep
layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of
thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging
wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more
mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides.

..Thornton/Moore.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041252
SWODY1
SPC AC 041250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.

...Upper OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England...
A belt of moderate mid-level westerly flow aloft currently extends
across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic States, situated between the
upper troughing over eastern Canada and higher heights over the
southeast CONUS. A modest vorticity maximum appears to be moving
within these westerlies across Lower MI, downstream of two more
prominent, convectively augmented vorticity maxima across IA and KS.
There also appears to be a very modest shortwave trough moving over
the KY vicinity, evidenced by a subtle shift in the mid-level winds
across the region. Both of these features are expected to continue
eastward today, progressing into a very warm, moist, and unstable
airmass across the Upper OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic by the early
afternoon.

Interaction between the modest ascent associated with these features
and the unstable airmass forecast to be in place will support
thunderstorm development. This development is expected first over
the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley vicinity during the early
afternoon (likely supported by the modest KY shortwave trough)
before then progressing northeastward through northern VA, DC,
central MD, DE, and southern NJ. Weak deep-layer shear amid a deeply
mixed airmass (with afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s/low
100s) will support outflow-dominant storm structures, and strong
cold pools capable of widespread damaging wind gusts. An isolated
gust or two around 70-75 mph is possible. A similar convective
evolution is anticipated farther north (from the Allegheny Plateau
through the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England) later in
the afternoon as the Lower MI vorticity maximum moves through the
region. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk here as well, with
slightly less coverage and magnitude than farther south.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Outflow associated with a decaying convective cluster over
western/central KS currently arcs from southeast CO across far
southwest KS into central KS. This cluster is forecast to continue
weakening as it gradually moves east-southeastward, with its
associated outflow likely extending from east-central KS back
southwestward across south-central KS by this afternoon. Airmass destabilization is expected by the mid to late afternoon amid strong
heating, steep mid-level lapse rates, and ample low-level moisture.
Moisture convergence along this boundary within this convectively
uninhibited airmass will result in additional thunderstorms. Given
the strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear in place,
a few supercells are possible early in the convective cycle. Large
to isolated very large hail as well as strong downbursts are
possible with any supercells. A tornado or two could also occur,
particularly with sufficient residence time along the boundary. Outflow-dominant storm structures will likely result in one or more forward-propagating convective clusters throughout the evening.

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated within the
moist upslope flow over the central High Plains, with at least some
potential for the development of a convective line that then
progresses into western NE, northeastern CO, and northwestern KS.

Widely scattered thunderstorm development is also expected along the
dryline extending from the central/western OK Panhandle
southwestward across the TX Panhandle and into far east-central NM.
Weak vertical shear will likely prevent sustained updraft
organization, but a few storms could briefly be robust enough to
produce strong updrafts/downdrafts and resulting damaging gusts.

...Lower MO Valley into the Lower/Central OH Valley...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as a
pair of vorticity maxima, one associated with the convection over KS
and the other from overnight storms across IA, progress eastward
into the moist and diurnally destabilized airmass over the region.
Vertical shear across the region will be modest, limiting updraft
organization and promoting an outflow-dominant storm mode. Even so,
some cold pool amalgamation is possible, with the resultant
forward-propagating clusters capable of damaging gusts.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041603
SWODY1
SPC AC 041601

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous damaging wind
gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected across the Great
Plains this afternoon and evening, posing a risk for severe wind
gusts and large hail.

...Mid Atlantic...
A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today
with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the
mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse
rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest
mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of
PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters
remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms.

...PA/NY into southern New England...
A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is
rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US.
Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA
into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into
southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will
pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.

..IL/IN...
A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA,
with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The
air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very
unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms.
Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds
as these storms organize and track into IN by evening.

...KS/MO...
An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS.
Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient
mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will
persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with
a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development
is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary
across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south
of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some
hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and
into western AR this evening.

...TX Panhandle...
A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late
afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The
strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a
few hours.

...Northeast CO...
Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the
40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong
heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered
thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe
cells are possible with large hail being the main risk.

...MN/SD...
Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave
trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty
winds.

..Hart/Weinman.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041949
SWODY1
SPC AC 041948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms will continue to move across parts of the
Allegheny Plateau into the Mid-Atlantic, with potential for numerous
damaging wind gusts. Additional severe thunderstorms are still
expected across the Great Plains this afternoon and evening, posing
a risk for severe wind gusts and large hail.

...20Z Update...
A cold-pool-driven MCS, with a history of measured 50+ kt gusts and
wind damage, continues to rapidly propagate eastward across central
MO. While deep-layer shear is quite modest over the Ozarks, a
pronounced baroclinic boundary is draped across central MO into the
St. Louis Metropolitan area. The MCS has likely maintained its
intensity thus far by riding this boundary and ingesting some
vorticity for bookend vortex and rear-inflow jet maintenance. It is
unclear how long this MCS will remain strong/organized given the
lack of ambient deep-layer shear. However. surface temperatures on
the warm side of the boundary exceeding 90 F, amid mid 70s F
dewpoints, is yielding a gradient of 2500-4500 J/kg SBCAPE, which
should support some severe gust threat for this MCS for at least the
next few hours. As such, 30 percent wind probabilities have been
added ahead of the MCS.

Guidance consensus, including early depictions from WoFS output,
suggests that an MCS will quickly surge southeastward across
portions of the southern Plains after initiating along the KS/OK
border late this afternoon. The farther southeast initiation (given
the current position of the surface outflow boundary left behind
from the previous MCS), and southeastward surging potential, it
appears that the greatest wind threat will exist into east-central
OK. 30 percent/CIG1 wind probabilities have been extended into this
region.

Five percent hail probabilities have been added across portions of
the lower Hudson Valley. Here, MRMS mosaic MESH data suggests that
marginally severe hail may already be falling with the more robust
storms over northern PA. Furthermore, stronger mid-level flow is
grazing the lower Hudson Valley, contributing to 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear amid 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which should be
adequate to support a continued hail threat.

Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track, including the
potential for numerous damaging to occasionally severe gusts
expected across portions of the Mid Atlantic into southern New
England through the afternoon and evening hours. Mostly minor
adjustments have been made to the remainder of the outlook to
account for guidance consensus and observations.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026/

...Mid Atlantic...
A hot summer day is forecast across the Mid Atlantic region today
with temperatures well into the 90s and dewpoints ranging from the
mid 60-lower 70s F. Full sun will result in steep low-level lapse
rates and high CAPE values beneath moderately strong northwest
mid-level flow. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
along/east of the Blue Ridge and spread eastward across parts of
PA/VA/NJ/DE through the late afternoon and evening. Parameters
remain favorable for downburst winds in these clusters of storms.

...PA/NY into southern New England...
A weak shortwave trough and associated mid level speed max is
rotating southeastward out of Ontario/Quebec into the northeast US.
Ample low-level moisture and pockets of moderate CAPE will result in
widely scattered afternoon thunderstorm development from northern PA
into central NY. These storms will spread southeastward into
southern New England by early evening. The strongest cells will
pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.

..IL/IN...
A remnant MCV from overnight convection is analyzed over eastern IA,
with a surface boundary extending eastward just south of CHI. The
air mass to the south of the boundary across IL will become very
unstable by mid-afternoon, leading to scattered thunderstorms.
Favorable thermodynamic parameters suggest a risk of damaging winds
as these storms organize and track into IN by evening.

...KS/MO...
An ongoing cluster of strong/severe storms is affecting eastern KS.
Given the moist and unstable air mass to the east and sufficient
mesoscale organization, it is probable that this cluster will
persist into the afternoon. Storms will track into western MO with
a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

...KS/OK/AR...
In the wake of the aforementioned cluster of storms, new development
is likely later this afternoon along the remnant outflow boundary
across southern KS and northern OK. High CAPE values to the south
of the boundary will promote the ENH risk of damaging winds and some
hail as storms build southeastward across central/eastern OK and
into western AR this evening.

...TX Panhandle...
A weak surface boundary will be the focus for scattered late
afternoon thunderstorms over the southern/eastern TX Panhandle. The
strongest cells may produce damaging wind gusts and large hail for a
few hours.

...Northeast CO...
Southerly low level winds will maintain dewpoints in at least the
40s over parts of eastern CO this afternoon despite strong
heating/mixing. This will be sufficient to allow scattered
thunderstorms to form along the foothills and DCVZ. A few severe
cells are possible with large hail being the main risk.

...MN/SD...
Similar to yesterday, a few afternoon and early evening
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a weak shortwave
trough. The strongest cells might produce large hail or gusty
winds.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050101
SWODY1
SPC AC 050059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE DELMARVA...OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND FROM
THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of severe winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph
and isolated occurrences of large hail remain possible across
Oklahoma, with more sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds from the Ozark Plateau into southern High Plains. Damaging
winds and some hail threat will continue from southern New England
into the Delmarva this evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail
and damaging winds remain possible over the central High Plains.

....Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

Recent radar data indicate the evolution of a well-defined bow echo
over northeast OK with the crest of that feature moving toward Tulsa
at around 45 mph. Additional intense storms exhibiting some
supercell characteristics are being observed on the western flank of
the bow echo over north-central OK, with more widely scattered
strong to severe storm development from northwest OK into
east-central NM. The 00z OUN sounding is likely a good
representation of the inflow air mass to the ongoing storms,
featuring modestly steep lapse rates and with MLCAPE of around 2500
J/kg. The current KICT and KVNX VWPs are sampling stronger winds
above 5-6 km AGL than those observed by the 00Z OUN sounding,
suggesting that deep-layer shear is likely closer to 40-45 kt in the
vicinity of the ongoing storms.

Latest WoFS and HRRR data suggest the potential for a swath of
intense straight-line winds with gusts in excess of 75 mph over the
next 2-3 hours generally east of I-35 in OK in association with the
bow echo. More sporadic occurrences of large hail and damaging winds
will remain possible from western OK into eastern NM.

For additional near-term information, see MCD 1507.


...Southern New England to the Delmarva...

Multiple clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing as
of 00Z with several reports of wind damage and a 58 mph wind gust at
BWI Marshall Airport. The inflow air mass remains hot and moist this
evening with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg, per latest mesoanalysis.
Regional VWPs and the 00Z OKX sounding indicate the strongest
mid-level flow and resultant vertical shear across the middle and
lower Hudson Valley into southern New England, which will support
embedded bowing and supercell structures capable of damaging winds
and large hail. Weaker vertical shear with southward extent into the
Delmarva is being offset by comparatively stronger instability,
which should allow for a continued damaging wind threat with storms
moving toward the coast.

For additional near-term details, see MCD 1505.


...Eastern Colorado into Central Nebraska...

Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing this evening
from the vicinity of Broken Bow, NE into northeast CO amidst a steep
lapse rate and moderately unstable air mass, per 00Z LBF sounding.
In the absence of appreciable forcing for ascent, storms should tend
to weaken over the next couple of hours. In the near time, hail up
to 1.5" and locally severe wind gusts will remain possible.

For additional near-term details, see MCD 1506.

..Mead.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050552
SWODY1
SPC AC 050550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail
may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with more sporadic
occurrences of hail and damaging winds from the southern High Plains
into the Tennessee Valley and in parts of the northern Rockies.

...Synopsis...

A series of weak mid-level disturbances (some of convective origin)
will contribute modest trough amplification from the OH Valley into
the TN and lower MS Valleys on Sunday while another disturbance
approaches the Mid-Atlantic from the west. Elsewhere, a short-wave
trough and associated 50+ kt mid-level jet streak will move through
southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta with downstream
height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into northern High
Plains.

At the surface, a weak front is forecast to become established from
an area of low pressure over OH into the DE River Valley. A
secondary surface low may materialize over the Delmarva near the
intersection of the front and a lee trough extending south-southwest
into the Carolina Piedmont. Farther west, a cold front will settle
southeast into the northern High Plains.


...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas...

A hot and very moist air mass is expected to exist from the vicinity
of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ south along the lee trough
into the Carolinas with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-3000+ J/kg.
Convergence near the surface low and attending boundaries may be
augmented by weak forcing for ascent ahead of a subtle short-wave
trough to yield scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid
afternoon.

The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt is forecast in the
vicinity of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ, where episodic
supercell structures are possible with an attendant risk for
marginally severe hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, the
expectation is for pulse-type and multicell storms to merge into
clusters or line segments with the hot, well-mixed PBL and
resultant, steep low-level lapse rates enhancing damaging wind
potential from mid afternoon into evening.

Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with
southward extent into the Carolinas owing to decreased vertical
shear and forcing for ascent.

Farther west in the upper OH Valley, a remnant MCV may focus an
additional cluster of afternoon thunderstorms near the surface low
and associated front. Both vertical shear and instability are
expected to be weaker than the segment of the front nearer to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast. Nonetheless, some 00Z CAM guidance suggests the
potential for brief cold-pool organization with an associated risk
for locally damaging wind gusts.


...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...

Modest height falls are forecast Sunday afternoon into evening to
the east and southeast of the short-wave trough mentioned in the
synopsis. And while the boundary-layer is forecast to remain
relatively dry ahead of the cold front, the presence of steep
low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute to pockets of
moderate instability with MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in parts
of northern ND.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon in the
vicinity of the front in southwest MT with additional storms
expected by late afternoon or early evening along the boundary in
western into north-central ND. The MT storms are expected to be high
based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being
the predominant hazard. Stronger instability and vertical shear are
forecast in ND, leading to the potential for a few supercells
capable of large to very large hail.


...Southern Plains into Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley...

One or multiple outflow boundaries remnant from overnight convection
are expected to focus diurnally enhanced thunderstorms from portions
of the TN and lower MS Valleys into the Red River Valley Sunday
afternoon and early evening. In addition, the models indicate an MCV originating from a large MCS ongoing as of late evening from
southwest MO into southeast OK and northeast TX will move into the
lower MS Valley by afternoon, potentially aiding in the thunderstorm development there. The steepest lapse rates are forecast across the
southern High Plains with increasing boundary-layer moisture content
into the lower MS and TN Valleys, both of which will contribute to a
moderately unstable environment by afternoon across the pre-frontal
warm sector.

Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the warm
sector, which should limit the potential for storm organization. A
possible exception is if the outflow boundary stalls or retreats
into southern OK in closer proximity to stronger northwest flow
aloft. In that scenario, a corridor of higher supercell potential
could materialize, requiring higher hail probabilities and a level
2/Slight Risk. Aside from that scenario, pulse and multicell storms
appear likely with a risk for sporadic large hail and severe wind
gusts in the steeper lapse rate environment in the southern Plains
with mainly damaging winds expected in the lower MS and TN Valleys.

..Mead/Moore.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051246
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail
and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into
northwest Texas as well.

...Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont...
Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along
a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through
PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward
just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development
is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold
front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the
Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist
surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the
potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm
organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still
possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest
likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ
where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists.

Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward
through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is
anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very
warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are
expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy
(i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and
potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the
expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into
clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant,
steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential
from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected
to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing
to more limited storm coverage.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...
Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread
eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern
Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern
British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively
warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in
place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls
associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold
front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in
western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough
vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures
capable of large hail and damaging gusts.

Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across
MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be
high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts
being the predominant hazard.

...Southern High Plains into east TX...
An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs
from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into
west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm
development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass
diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is
anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to
widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will
be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High
storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in
strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool
amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging
gusts than farther east.

...Lower MS Valley into AL...
A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and
moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley
eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum
currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster
also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will
interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon,
supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and
a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated.
Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or
occasional bowing segments.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051619
SWODY1
SPC AC 051618

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging
gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and
west/northwest Texas.

...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of
eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall
thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to
yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing
parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds.
Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see
strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early
evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable
for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain
ongoing SLGT risk area.

...Gulf coast states to Carolinas...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast
today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE.
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region
with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.

...TX...
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and
the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM
solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the
southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms
are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with
a continued risk of damaging winds.

...Northern ND...
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse
surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

...MT...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward.
Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.

..Hart/Leitman.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051959
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND WESTERN INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.
Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in
North Dakota and west/northwest Texas.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains generally on track. A
mesovortex embedded within a multicellular complex developed a few
hours ago and produced a localized swath of intense winds along the
OH/PA border. A repeat of such activity cannot be ruled out across
western into central PA given the presence of a broad baroclinic
boundary for ongoing storms to traverse. However, confidence in the
development of another mesovortex is too low for an appreciable
modification of severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026/

...Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again today from parts of
eastern OH/WV into PA and the Mid-Atlantic region. The overall
thermodynamic environment has weakened considerably compared to
yesterday, with CAPE, low-level lapse rates, and heating showing
parameters only marginally favorable for damaging winds.
Nevertheless, parts of northern VA into eastern PA and NJ will see
strong heating all day with storms moving in during the early
evening. This will help to maximize low-level conditions favorable
for gusty/damaging winds later today. Therefore will maintain
ongoing SLGT risk area.

...Gulf coast states to Carolinas...
Hot and humid conditions will prevail over much of the southeast
today, with dewpoints in the 70s and pockets of moderate CAPE.
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms will occur across this region
with locally damaging winds possible in the strongest storms.

...TX...
Full sunshine is noted over TX today, with dewpoints near 70F and
the potential for afternoon MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. All CAM
solutions indicate thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
remnant outflow from overnight convection, extending from the
southern TX Panhandle into north-central TX. Initial storms may be supercellular with large hail and damaging winds possible. Storms
are expected to congeal through the evening and sag southward, with
a continued risk of damaging winds.

...Northern ND...
A cold front will move across northeast MT today, with a diffuse
surface dryline along the MT/ND border. Widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late afternoon.
Shear profiles will be sufficient for supercell structures capable
of large hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two cannot be ruled
out.

...MT...
Scattered afternoon high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the mountains of southwest MT and spread east-northeastward.
Inverted-v profiles and moderately strong winds aloft will pose a
risk of damaging wind gusts in a few of these storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the
evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with
thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana.

...West-Central Texas...

A forward-propagating MCS has evolved this evening across the TX Big
Country into the Low Rolling Plains with gusts of 62 and 75 mph
reported with the system over the past hour. The inflow air mass
remains hot and relatively moist with latest objective analysis
indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. The KFDR VWP indicates a belt
of 30-40 kt northerly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which is likely
enhancing vertical shear. This, when coupled with the presence of a
relatively deep and well-mixed PBL, will continue to support severe
wind gusts and sporadic hail occurrences for the next few hours as
the MCS continues south into the Concho Valley.

For additional near-term details, see MCD 1517.


...Mid-Atlantic...

Earlier, more discrete storms have gradually evolved into a
larger-scale complex over southeast PA with that system tracking
east along a subtle boundary that extends into central NJ.
Additional storm clustering is noted farther south, near Baltimore,
with latest model guidance suggesting additional consolidation of
storms over the next hour or two across the Delmarva into the DE
River Valley. The 00Z IAD sampled a moist and moderately unstable
air mass, which featured steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-1.5 km
AGL. While vertical shear is relatively weak, the steep lapse rates
will support episodic cold-pool organization with an attendant risk
for damaging winds for the next 1-3 hours.

For additional near-term information, see MCD 1518.


...Montana and North Dakota...

Mesoanalysis places a surface front from western ND into
south-central MT, with steep lapse rates and locally higher
boundary-layer moisture contributing to a corridor of moderate to
strong instability in the vicinity of the boundary over northwest ND
into northeast MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this
evening to the east of the boundary in western ND amidst a warmer
and slightly drier boundary layer as sampled by the 00Z BIS
sounding. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet may support
some moistening late this evening into tonight; however, increasing
convective inhibition may become more prohibitive to surface-based
storm sustenance upon nightfall. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences
of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing
storms for the next 1-3 hours.

Farther west, a separate thunderstorm regime is ongoing to the north
of the surface front in central MT. The short-term models suggest a
few of those storms could persist through the remainder of the
evening with isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind
gusts possible.

..Mead.. 07/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060538
SWODY1
SPC AC 060536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota Monday afternoon and evening. More
isolated occurrences of damaging wind and large hail are possible
from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains and the lower
Mississippi Valley. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts
will be possible with the strongest storms in the southern
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Synopsis...

A vigorous short-wave trough and associated 50-60 kt mid-level jet
streak will progress from southern Saskatchewan into northwest
Ontario with the southern fringe of modest height falls and stronger
mid-level flow situated along the international border. Elsewhere, a
vorticity maximum will move through AR within the base of a
mid-level trough over the lower MS Valley, while a separate
short-wave trough advances through OR into the northern Rockies.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Canadian
disturbance will move south into the Dakotas and upper MS Valley,
while a backdoor-type cold front pushes south through parts of the Mid-Atlantic. A lee trough will extend south from the front through
central VA into the Carolinas with some model signal for surface low development along the trough over central VA.


...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...

Boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s will coincide
with the northeast extension of an EML plume to yield moderate to
strong instability Monday afternoon ahead of the cold front with
MLCAPE of 2500-3500+ J/kg. The modest height falls aloft will
combine with frontal convergence to yield widely scattered
thunderstorms by mid afternoon in the Red River Valley. Subsequent
storm development is possible along the front as far south as
northwest or north-central NE by late afternoon or early evening.

The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt is forecast across the
Red River Valley with a vector orientation that is largely
perpendicular to the surface front. As such, supercells appear
possible initially with the primary hazard being large hail
potentially in excess of two inches. Effective SRH of generally less
than 100-150 m2/s2 is forecast into late afternoon, during the
period of more discrete storm modes, which may tend to limit a more
robust tornado threat. 00Z CAM guidance is in relatively good
agreement in depicting the upscale growth of storms into a linear
system by evening over eastern SD and western MN with an associated
risk for severe wind gusts.

Weaker vertical shear with southward extent from central SD into
northern NE is expected to limit the potential for organized storm
modes, though isolated occurrences of hail and severe wind gusts
appear possible with the strongest storms.


...Northeast Idaho through southern Montana and northern Wyoming...

The short-wave trough moving into the northern Rockies will be
attended by a belt of 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb, which will enhance
vertical shear across the region. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid to late afternoon from
the Bitterroot to Big Horn Mountains amidst a steep lapse rate and
at least modestly unstable environment. There is some model signal
that an MCS could evolve over northeast WY Monday evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support at least episodic
supercell and bowing structures capable of large hail and damaging
winds. The expected areal coverage of the severe weather threat
currently precludes higher wind and hail probabilities.


...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...

A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
the lee trough and surface low Monday afternoon with MLCAPE as high
as 2000-3000 J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, as will vertical
shear. Nonetheless, convergence along the lee trough and backdoor
front is expected to foster scattered thunderstorms by early to mid
afternoon with the potential for upscale growth into loosely
organized clusters by late afternoon into evening. The presence of
steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential with a
risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.

An upgrade to a level 2/Slight Risk is possible in later outlooks if
a preferred corridor of damaging wind potential becomes apparent in
future model data.


...Lower Mississippi Valley...

Forcing for ascent preceding the vorticity maximum mentioned in the
synopsis is expected to focus scattered afternoon thunderstorms from
AR into the Sabine and lower MS Valleys. Vertical shear will remain
relatively weak; however, the presence of a moist and moderately to
strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE up to 2000-3000 J/kg) will
support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of isolated occurrences of
damaging winds and marginally severe hail.

..Mead/Moore.. 07/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061233
SWODY1
SPC AC 061231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large
hail and severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern
Dakotas and western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated
to scattered damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
strongest storms in the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Upper Mississippi Valley into north-central Nebraska...
Early-morning surface analysis reveals a low over far southwest
Manitoba, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low
into southeast MT and then westward across south-central MT. This
surface low and associated cold front precede a well-defined
shortwave trough currently moving through southern Saskatchewan.
This shortwave is forecast to continue eastward today, with the
attendant surface low and cold front progressing eastward as well. A
warm and moist airmass will precede this cold front, with afternoon
highs ranging from the upper 80s/low 90s across eastern SD/northwest
MN into the upper 90s/low 100s from central SD into central NE.
Boundary-layer mixing will be offset by modest low-level moisture
advection, likely keeping dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s over
much of the region. These warm and moist conditions will help
destabilize the airmass, despite relatively warm mid-level
temperatures at the base of a northeastward-advecting EML. Over 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE will likely be in place by the mid afternoon, with a
pocket of 3000 J/kg possible across southeast SD by the late
afternoon.

Thunderstorm development is anticipated first across western ND and
northwest MN as the cold front interacts with this buoyant airmass,
with ascent along the front augmented by modest lift along the
southern periphery of the shortwave trough. Enhanced mid-level flow
will exist within the base of this shortwave as well, with the
resulting combination of buoyancy and shear supportive of supercells
early in the convective cycle, with large hail as the primary
hazard. Some instances of hail in excess of two inches are possible.
A somewhat quick transition to a more linear mode appears likely
given the frontal forcing, close storm proximity, and likelihood of
strong cold pools. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once this
upscale growth occurs.

Lower storm coverage is anticipated with southward extent from
central SD into northern NE. Here, weaker shear is expected to limit
the potential for organized storm modes, though isolated occurrences
of hail and severe wind gusts appear possible with the strongest
storms.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas...
A hot and very moist boundary layer is forecast in the vicinity of
a lee trough this afternoon, with MLCAPE generally from 1500-2500
J/kg. Forcing for ascent will be weak, with convergence along the
lee trough as the primary impetus for convective initiation.
Vertical shear will be weak, but scattered coverage and an
outflow-dominant storm mode will support the potential for upscale
growth into loosely organized clusters. Relatively high storm bases
and steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential
with a risk for damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms.
Highest coverage is expected from central VA into far north-central
NC.

...Northern Great Basin into southern Montana and northern
Wyoming...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving into southwestern ID. This shortwave is forecast to continue
northeastward across ID and western MT, moving within the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners. Mid-level moisture and ascent associated with this
shortwave will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the region during the afternoon and evening. Moderate mid-level flow
(i.e. 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb) will accompany this wave as well,
resulting in sufficient deep-layer shear to support at least
episodic supercell and bowing structures capable of damaging winds
and isolated hail.

...Lower MS Valley...
A notable vorticity maximum is currently moving southward from
southwest MO into northwest AR, with slow southward/southeastward
progression of this vorticity maximum expected throughout the day.
Ample low-level moisture exists over the region, supporting diurnal
airmass destabilization and the development of strong buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg) by the afternoon. Scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are anticipated as the vorticity max moves
through this environment. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting
storm organization, but a few strong downdrafts are still possible.
Isolated occurrences of marginally severe hail are possible as well.

..Mosier/Dean.. 07/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061630
SWODY1
SPC AC 061628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE ARKLATEX REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts appear possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.

...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.

...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.

...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.

...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.

..Hart/Weinman.. 07/06/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061950
SWODY1
SPC AC 061948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE ARKLATEX...AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
INTO EXTREME NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and
severe wind gusts remain possible across the eastern Dakotas and
western Minnesota this afternoon and evening. Isolated to scattered
damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the strongest storms
in the southern Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and ArkLaTex regions.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor
changes made to the thunder and severe probabilities to reflect the
latest observations and numerical guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026/

...MN/ND...
Morning water vapory imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over southern Manitoba, with its associated surface cold front
sagging southward across ND. This front will serve as the focus for
scattered thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon from northern MN
into eastern ND. Strong heating ahead of the front and dewpoints
near 70F will yield MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Forecast soundings show
relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer
shear for supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts.
These storms may persist through the evening, spreading southward
into central MN and eastern SD.

...Mid Atlantic/Carolinas...
Another day of scattered afternoon thunderstorms will affect much of
the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas region today. Vertical shear and
steering flow is rather weak, suggesting storms will be poorly
organized. However, strong heating and steep low-level lapse rates,
combined with substantial CAPE in forecast soundings, suggest that
the strongest cells will pose the risk of damaging wind gusts over a
relatively broad area again today.

...AR/LA/OK/TX...
Strong heating and ample low-level moisture will lead to scattered
afternoon thunderstorms again today over much of AR, southeast OK,
northeast TX, and northern LA. This is near a mid-level trough
where lapse rates and mid-level temperatures are more favorable for
robust up/downdrafts capable of damaging wind gusts. Have opted for
a small SLGT risk for parts of this area where convective coverage
appears highest.

...Northern UT into WY...
Scattered high-based fast-moving thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over northern UT, moving northeastward into western and
northern WY. The strongest of these cells will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts.

$$

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