ACUS02 KWNS 260602
SWODY2
SPC AC 260600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and
western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be
possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the
Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough will persist in the West. Ridging will build
within the southern/central Plains and Midwest. Multiple MCVs will
impact portions of the Ozarks/Tennessee Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont. A shortwave trough will pivot through parts
of the northern Plains. A surface low near the Black Hills will
deepen and move eastward into Sunday morning.

...Northern Plains...
Within a broader upper trough across the West, a shortwave trough
will pivot northeast through the northern Plains. Surface low
development in eastern Wyoming/the Black Hills vicinity will draw
moisture northward. Effective shear of 40-50 kt will promote initial
supercells capable of large/very-large hail, severe wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two. Given the linear forcing within the
surface trough as well as somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggest
some potential for upscale growth by early evening. As this occurs a
transition to primarily a risk of severe wind gusts (perhaps 75+
mph) will occur. There may be a small corridor of greater severe
gust coverage/intensity, but weaker and potential warm advection
storms to the east decreases confidence in the spatial extent of a
greater wind risk. Even so, some potential for severe gusts and
isolated large hail will continue eastward during the evening along
the nose of a low-level jet in the Dakotas. Farther south into
Nebraska, convective development is more conditional/uncertain. The
environment would support all severe hazards, however.

...Ozarks into Tennessee Valley...
Convection along a surface boundary driven by warm advection appears
probable during the morning hours. This activity is expected to
weaken within the Ozarks and may shift into the Tennessee Valley as
the MCV moves eastward. Damaging winds and marginally severe hail
may occur in Tennessee/Kentucky. Farther west, some airmass recovery
is possible within southern Missouri. A weak MCV emanating from the
southern High Plains may spur convective development during the
afternoon despite modestly rising mid-level heights. A conditionally
favorable environment for a supercell or two will exist. All severe
hazards would be possible if storms can form.

...Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont...
Convection may be ongoing in portions of the mid/upper Ohio Valley
during the morning. Some potential for isolated damaging winds may
accompany this activity. Relatively high uncertainty exists as to
how this early-day activity will evolve as it moves eastward during
the day. A weak cold front is forecast to be positioned across parts
of the Mid-Atlantic. South of this boundary, rich surface moisture
will be in place. However, cloud cover may limit destabilization and
weak to modest mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer flow will
further limit storm organization potential. Depending on the
timing/location of the Ohio Valley convection/MCV, a narrow zone of
marginally greater shear may promote a more organized threat for
wind damage in southeast Virginia into northeast North Carolina.
Another weakening MCV moving through the Tennessee Valley will
impact the region by late afternoon/early evening, but buoyancy by
that point in the day is more questionable.

...Mid-Missouri into Mid-Mississippi Valley...
With an increase in the low-level jet during the evening, convection
may develop along a boundary draped across the region. Effective
shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would promote some risk for
large hail and isolated damaging winds during the evening into the
overnight. That said, rising mid-level heights may be enough to
inhibit convection from forming altogether.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 261744
SWODY2
SPC AC 261742

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
VA AND EASTERN NC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across portions of eastern Montana and
western/central North Dakota on Saturday. Severe storms will also be
possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to Virginia and the
Carolinas, as well as portions of the southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant large-scale upper trough will persist
across the western U.S. on Saturday. Further east, upper ridging
over the Plains is forecast to shift east toward the Upper Midwest
and Mid-MS Valley by Sunday morning. Quasi-zonal/weak upper
troughing is expected to persist across the eastern U.S. Within this large-scale regime, several shortwave impulses and embedded MCVs are
expected to drive severe thunderstorm potential across multiple
areas on Saturday. A lead upper shortwave trough is expected to
eject from the eastern Great Basin through the northern High Plains.
A series of MCVs will move from the Ozark Plateau to the OH/TN
Valleys, while another MCV and/or surface trough impacts
thunderstorm potential across the Mid-Atlantic/Piedmont. Finally,
another upper shortwave impulse could emerge across the central
Plains into the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valleys.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains...

A midlevel jet streak will overspread parts of the Great Basin into
the northern Plains, characterized by 50-60 kt southwesterly 500 mb
flow. Cooling aloft is also forecast and will result in a plume of
steep midlevel lapse rates. Surface low pressure is forecast to
deepen across northeast WY/western SD through evening. This will
support northward transport of low to mid 60s F dewpoints into
eastern MT/ND/SD. This will result in a narrow corridor of moderate
to strong instability. Capping will increase with eastward extent as
a result of midlevel height rises/warming aloft, which should
confine the eastward extent of severe potential.

As large-scale ascent increasing during the afternoon, convection is
expected to develop across the higher terrain of northern UT/ID into
WY. This initial activity will pose a risk for strong wind gusts and
isolated hail given strong deep-layer flow, steep midlevel lapse
rates, and a well mixed boundary layer. Additional convection is
expected to develop near the Big Horns and Beartooth/Absaroka
ranges. As this activity develops northeast into better low-level
moisture and strong instability, large to very large hail potential
will increase. With time during the evening, a southerly low-level
jet will increase across the Dakotas. Upscale growth is possible as
convection moves toward the terminus of the low-level jet and as
sufficient clustering/cold pool development occurs. If this
convective evolution unfolds, a swath of damaging wind gusts will be
possible, mainly across eastern MT into western ND.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Ongoing convection and cloudiness will likely hinder daytime
destabilization. Nevertheless, several shortwave impulses will move
across the region along with 25-30 kt westerly midlevel flow.
Isolated strong storms may produce gusty winds. The Slight risk
(level 2 of 5) has been confined to areas nearer the coast where
instability will be greatest.

...Southern High Plains...

A surface trough/dryline will extend south/southwest from western KS
to southwest TX. A moist airmass will exist east of this boundary
with hot temperatures forecast along and just behind the boundary.
Moderate to strong destabilization will occur near the boundary in a
narrow corridor, confined by stronger capping to the east across
much of OK/KS/central TX. However, isolated to widely scattered
storms are expected to develop during peak heating to early evening.
Vertically veering wind profiles with up to 25 kt effective shear
magnitudes suggest organized updrafts and high-based transient
supercell structures are possible. Given a deeply mixed boundary
layer, strong gusts will be possible. Organized updrafts that can be
maintained also will pose a risk of large hail given very steep
midlevel lapse rates and somewhat elongated hodographs.

...Ozarks to TN Valley vicinity...

Storms are forecast to be ongoing Saturday morning across southwest
MO. This activity could pose a marginal wind/hail risk initially.
Additional development is expected from southern IL/southeast MO
into KY/TN by late morning and spread east through the afternoon as
an MCV moves across the region. While deep layer flow will not be
impressive, the MCV could locally enhanced vertical shear.
Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds as
they track across moisture-rich and moderately unstable airmass.

...Northeast CO/Western NE into central SD...

Convection may develop during the late afternoon along the surface trough/dryline. Rich boundary layer moisture beneath steep lapse
rates will support strong destabilization. This corridor will remain
rather confined given rising midlevel heights and capping to the
east. Any storms that develop will have potential for strong outflow
gusts and large hail.

...Mid-MO Valley vicinity...

It is uncertain if convection will develop across this area, or if
it does - will it be surface-based, resulting in a rather
conditional severe risk. If storms can develop, an all-hazards
severe risk would be possible given a surface warm front lifting
north across the region amid ample moisture/instability and
supercell wind profiles. Given the conditional nature of the risk,
particularly due to capping, will maintain low severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 06/26/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary hazards.

...Synopsis...
The western U.S. trough will remain in place on Sunday with an
amplifying upper ridge in the East. A surface low is expected to
develop within the central/northern High Plains, though the location
is still uncertain. A surface boundary will be present from the
Mid-Atlantic through the Ohio Valley and mid Mississippi Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
The forecast remains rather complex across these regions. Convection
is generally expected to be ongoing during the early morning across
parts of eastern North Dakota into northern Minnesota. While this
activity is not expected to be particularly strong, it may modulate
the northward progression of a surface boundary. In the wake of the
morning activity, at least a narrow zone of moderate buoyancy
(2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected to develop in central/eastern
North Dakota. Nebulous mid-level ascent casts some doubt on whether
storms will be able to form on an outflow boundary/surface trough.
Should storms develop, they may only be surface based for a short
period if at all. 50+ kt of effective shear and sufficient mid-level
lapse rates will support some risk of large hail and severe winds.

During the evening/overnight, the surface low is expected to deepen
somewhere in the High Plains. Storm development is possible as this
occurs. Where this occurs is still uncertain, but the Nebraska
Panhandle into western South Dakota are currently the most probable.
If convection can develop, it will most likely be elevated in
nature. The strong low-level jet would likely support some eastward
progress. Damaging winds and isolated large hail could occur with
this activity.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic...
Guidance continues to depict an MCV moving through the region. The
timing and intensity of this feature has been variable in the last
couple of model cycles. Overall deep-layer flow will be weak outside
of the influence of the MCV. Given the moist airmass in place,
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected ahead of
this feature. Damaging wind gusts are possible, particularly where
storms can cluster.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 271722
SWODY2
SPC AC 271721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large to very large hail and
severe winds are the primary hazards.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...

A challenging forecast scenario is expected on Sunday across
portions of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. Upper ridging is
expected to amplify over the Mid/Upper MS Valley and western Great
Lakes vicinity. This will result in capping concerns across the
region owing to height rises and warming aloft, especially from the
eastern Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. However, surface troughing
will sharpen and extend southward across the central Dakotas into
the central Plains. Meanwhile, a warm front/moisture gradient will
extend southeastward from northern MN into WI and the southern Lake
Michigan vicinity. Overnight, a surface low is forecast to mildly
deepen somewhere from western NE into SD. Forecast guidance
continues to show uncertainty in the evolution of this feature.

Southeasterly low-level flow will transport rich boundary layer
moisture westward across the region, with dewpoints in the mid 60s
to near 70 F common. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will
overspread the Red River and Upper MS Valley during the day, while
lapse rates further west steepen during the evening/overnight. This
will result in corridors of moderate to strong instability within
the warm sector to the east of the surface trough and south of the
warm front. However, given the building upper ridge, capping may
persist across the region, limiting potential for surface-based
convection.

Storms are expected to be ongoing Sunday morning across the eastern
Dakotas and will spread east through the day. While this activity
may be elevated, large hail is possible. A southerly low-level jet
is expected to persist through the daytime, and if storms can become near-surface based, some damaging wind potential also would exist.
It is unclear how far east this convection may persist as it crests
the building upper ridge.

Overnight, convection is expected to develop near the surface
low/trough on the leading edge of a strong southerly low-level jet
across western or central SD. This activity may be elevated, but
will likely initially be supercell mode with an attendant risk for
large to very large hail. If convection grows upscale, some wind
risk is also possible, but this is more uncertain given capping
concerns.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic...

An MCV is expected to move across the NC vicinity on Sunday. Ahead
of this feature, a seasonally very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place. Deep-layer flow will be modest, but the
MCV may locally enhance vertical shear and provide support for a
band of forward propagating convection moving off the higher terrain
during the after and early evening. Sporadic strong/damaging wind
gusts will be possible with these storms.

...Southern Plains...

A dryline will be oriented from western KS into southwest TX Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong heating is expected along the boundary
along with sufficient dryline convergence. Deep boundary
circulations and a narrow corridor of moderate instability will
support isolated storm development. Strong downburst/outflow winds
will be possible with these storms as generally weak vertical shear
limits stronger updrafts longevity/organization.

..Leitman.. 06/27/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 280602
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also
occur.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in
the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit
uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in
eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will
deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with
time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in
the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper
level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest
breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota.

...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota...
The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least
weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into
western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will
play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model
agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of
the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low
migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level
ridging that will persist through much of the period limits
confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the
afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur
near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential
for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the
50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger
low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low
and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota
are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an
MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This
particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the
depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions
such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur
farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border.

...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota...
Though the timing of development differs, there has been an
increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold
front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during
late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it
is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet
increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but
deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick
transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be
the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given
the stronger low-level jet.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 281700
SWODY2
SPC AC 281658

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also
occur.

...Synopsis...

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough, initially over the
northern Rockies, will eject east/northeast across the northern
Plains on Monday. This will bring a belt of enhanced mid/upper south/southwesterly flow across parts of the northern/central Plains
to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over
SD and lift north/northeast through evening. A trailing cold
front/dryline will move across the Dakotas and portions of NE after
00z while a warm front lifts northward across parts of eastern ND
and northern MN through the day. A secondary lee surface low will
develop over the central High Plains, with a dryline extending
south/southwest across western KS into southwest TX.

...Dakotas/Mid-MO Valley/Upper Midwest...

Uncertainty over mesoscale details persists this forecast cycle,
though overall model guidance continues to show better agreement.
Convection appears likely to be ongoing Monday morning across the
central Dakotas near the deepening surface low and northward
extending frontal occlusion. This activity may be elevated, but
supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings with elongated/straight hodographs noted amid 50+ kt effective shear
magnitudes. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place
across the region and elevated convection will pose a risk for large
to very large hail early in the day as storms move northward.

A very moist and unstable airmass will reside across the region,
with strong to extreme instability depicted in forecast guidance.
Convective evolution is uncertain. The extent of morning convection
could augment the northward extent of the richer boundary layer
moisture and instability. Guidance also varies in regards to the
evolution of the surface low, with some guidance being slower and
other solutions much faster. Nevertheless, the surface low/triple
point, warm front, and surface tough/cold front will be areas for
concern for convective development during the day and into the
afternoon. If supercells can develop and be surface-based near the
warm front, an all-hazards severe risk is evident given the very
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space. While initial
supercells are possible during the evening along the cold front from
the Mid-MO Valley into southern MN, boundary-parallel deep-layer
flow and an intensifying low-level jet could result in rapid upscale
growth into a bowing segment during the nighttime hours. This could
result in an increase in damaging wind potential if nighttime
convection can be near-surface based.

...KS/OK/TX...

Isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms are likely during the
evening along the dryline. Instability and vertical shear will be
modest, limiting longevity of stronger updrafts. Nevertheless, a
deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles could support strong outflow gusts. Overall severe
potential appears limited, precluding marginal probabilities at this
time.

...Southeast...

Moderate instability will develop amid a seasonally moist airmass
near the Savannah River into GA Monday afternoon/early evening. A backdoor/wedge front is expected to push south/southwest across SC
and may contribute to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
by peak heating within a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime.
Vertical shear will be weak, but occasional sub-severe gusty
outflows will be possible, mainly across central/southern GA.

..Leitman.. 06/28/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 290608
SWODY2
SPC AC 290606

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
An upper low will be present in the Canadian Prairies with a belt of
stronger mid-level flow extending into the Upper Midwest. The
amplified upper ridge in the Midwest/East will be somewhat
suppressed as a result. A stalled surface boundary will be present
from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. Moderate to
strong mid-level northwesterlies will be present across the
Northeast with possible MCVs/shortwaves moving into the region.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Convection that occurs in Minnesota overnight Monday into early
Tuesday is expected to weaken as it moves eastward. Given the
weakening and veering low-level jet, it does not appear this
activity will have much of an impact on the environment in northern
Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. A stalled surface
boundary will be located from northern Nebraska into Minnesota and
northwest Wisconsin. Very rich moisture (mid/upper 70s F dewpoints)
will exist in the warm sector. With mid-level lapse rates of 7.5-8
C/km, strong to extreme buoyancy will develop by the afternoon. With
the main upper low in the Canadian Prairie, large-scale ascent will
be subtle/nebulous. That said, convective temperatures should be
reached at least locally with additional lift expected from lake
breeze boundaries. Most models, including both global/regional
models and CAMs, suggest development is probable from parts of
northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula. Effective shear of
40-50 kt will promote some storm organization. However, magnitude of
buoyancy along with modest low-level flow will likely result in
storms becoming outflow dominant. A targeted Slight Risk has been
added for this potential. Damaging winds are the most likely hazard
with this activity, but isolated large hail could also occur.

Farther southwest into southern Minnesota/Iowa/Nebraska/South
Dakota, storm coverage is much less certain. There could be an
increase in thunderstorm activity as the low-level jet increases
during the evening. Should this occur, damaging winds and perhaps
isolated large hail would be possible. Shear will be weaker in these
areas and the severe threat will likely remain marginal/isolated.

...Northeast...
Questions remain as to the timing of MCV/convection moving out of
Canada. Given the potential for early precipitation to occur and
limit surface-based instability, the Marginal Risk has been
maintained for this outlook. Nevertheless, the environment will be
favorable for strong to severe storms. Effective shear is expected
to be around 50 kt. Damaging winds and large hail are likely the
main risks; however, if storm mode is more cellular, a greater
tornado risk could also be present. Trends in guidance will need to
be monitored.

...Colorado/Kansas/southwest Nebraska...
A modest lee trough will promote moisture advection into the central
High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough moving through the central
Rockies may aid in storm development. The timing of storm
development is not certain, but most guidance would suggest this
occurs at or after 00Z. Steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate
deep-layer shear will promote organized storms that will be capable
of large hail (isolated to around 2 in.) and severe winds. Low-level
shear will be enhanced near the surface trough/low, but concerns
over low-level thermodynamics limit confidence in a tornado threat.

..Wendt.. 06/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 291721
SWODY2
SPC AC 291719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN...PARTS OF NEW YORK
AND VERMONT...AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Northeast...

Enhanced northwesterly flow aloft on the northeastern periphery of
an amplified upper ridge will overspread the region on Tuesday. This
area will also be on the southerly periphery of a strengthening
southwesterly low-level jet oriented across Ontario/Quebec. This
will support effective shear magnitudes around 40+ kt. Supercell
structures will be possible, but most guidance suggests convection
will develop into one or more forward propagating clusters/bowing
segments. Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this
activity as it moves across a very moist and moderately unstable
airmass. Given supercell wind profiles and enlarged, favorably
curved hodographs, a couple of tornadoes also will be possible,
especially if a more semi-discrete storm mode occurs. While details
in convective evolution vary some among various guidance, a
consistent signal exists (particularly across northern NY into VT)
and a Slight risk (Level 2 of 5) has been included. Convection
should gradually decrease in intensity with southeast extent toward
southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic vicinity as instability
decreases and inhibition increases.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough initially over the
Canadian Prairies and northern MN will gradually shift
east/northeast through the period. Height tendencies will generally
be neutral across the area given the strong upper ridge just to the
east. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will persist across the
region, with some intensification of a low-level jet by late
afternoon/evening. At the surface, a quasi-stationary boundary is
forecast to extend from near the MN Arrowhead, southward into
eastern NE at midday. To the south/east of the boundary, a very
moist airmass with 70s dewpoints is forecast. A corridor of strong
to extreme instability is depicted by some model guidance across
northern WI into the U.P. of Michigan. Convection may develop near
the surface boundary and shift east across northern portions of the
Great Lakes. If this occurs, damaging winds (some near 80 mph) could
accompany thunderstorm clusters potentially organizing into a bowing
MCS.

Some guidance develops additional convection overnight across parts
of southern MN/WI into northern IA and vicinity. This activity would
be supported by a warm front lifting northward across the central
Plains and Mid-MO Valley and an intensifying southwesterly low-level
jet. While ample instability will exist across the area, it is
uncertain if this activity would be surfaced-based. Nevertheless, a
favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment would support some
severe wind/hail risk.

...Southern/Central High Plains...

Modest height falls are forecast as a midlevel shortwave impulse
ejected across the central Rockies into NE/SD from late afternoon
into the overnight hours. A surface trough/dryline will sharpen as a
result, and southerly low-level flow will transport low 60s
dewpoints northward along the boundary beneath steep midlevel lapse
rates. High-based convection is expected to develop by late
afternoon and shift east/northeast through evening. Initial
supercells could produce large to very large hail. With time, some
upscale development could occur via consolidating outflows and as
the low-level jet increases during the evening. This could bring an
increasing risk for damaging winds, a few possibly approaching 80
mph. Given a consistent signal across various CAMs, deterministic
and ML/AI guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been added.

...LA/MS/AL/GA/FL Panhandle...

Forecast guidance depicts 25-35 kt midlevel northeasterly flow on
the southern periphery of an upper high centered over the OH/TN
Valley. A very moist airmass will be present across much of the
region and strong destabilization is forecast amid strong daytime
heating. Forecast soundings depict around 20-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes, supporting some risk of organized cells/clusters.
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as activity develops
west/southwest through early evening.

..Leitman.. 06/29/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 300608
SWODY2
SPC AC 300607

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms will again be possible
from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast
on Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main
concerns.

...Mid-Missouri Valley into central Wisconsin...
Models are in general agreement that a cluster/MCS will be ongoing
in the eastern South Dakota/southern Minnesota vicinity early
Wednesday morning. There is at least some potential for damaging
surface gusts with this activity. Further intensification could also
occur as the airmass destabilizes in parts of Wisconsin into the
afternoon. However the early day activity evolves, an outflow
boundary from this activity will serve as a focus for additional
afternoon thunderstorms. 70+ F dewpoints to the south of the
boundary will again promote strong to locally extreme buoyancy.
Moderate to strong mid-level winds on the southern flank of the
upper trough in Canada will allow for 40-55 kt of effective shear
near the surface boundary. Initial supercells will be capable of
large to isolated very large (around 2-2.5 in.) hail and perhaps a
tornado or two. Given the instability, strong downdrafts will likely
lead to upscale growth relatively quickly. The risk for
severe/damaging winds will become the primary hazard with time,
particularly if an MCS can develop. A Slight Risk has been added to
cover both potential scenarios.

...Northeast...
The forecast continues to be uncertain given the nebulous forcing
for ascent. Nonetheless, substantial buoyancy will be in place
across the region (3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE). Effective shear of 35-40
kt will promote some storm organization. Model guidance shows
variable solutions from more isolated cellular activity to a cluster
moving southeastward out of Canada. Given the low confidence in
placing more organized activity, a Marginal Risk will be maintained
for now. Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected within the lee trough during
the afternoon. A deeply-mixed boundary layer will promote potential
for severe winds especially if any clustering can occur. Shear will
be modest and severe coverage is expected to be isolated.

...Southeast...
Strong buoyancy will be in place during the afternoon given rich
moisture (70+ F dewpoints). Shear will be quite weak with some minor enhancement in the lower Mississippi Valley. Models do show some
potential for clustering, but the location is quite variable. Lack
of even subtle features to focus convection keeps confidence in a
more organized damaging wind threat low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 301747
SWODY2
SPC AC 301745

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms will again be possible across the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes Wednesday into Wednesday night. Damaging wind
gusts (some to 80 mph) are expected, in addition to isolated large
to very large hail and a few tornadoes. Additional severe storms,
posing mainly a damaging wind risk, are possible across parts of the
Northeast and the central High Plains.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will move across the Upper Midwest and
Great Lakes Wednesday, eventually flattening the upper ridge over
the Northeast late in the period. With this shortwave, a band of
enhanced mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will overspread the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A quasi-stationary surface boundary
will extend from eastern SD northeast toward Lake Superior. Along
and south of this boundary will be a focus for potentially multiple
rounds of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night across
the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes. Additional strong to severe storms
are expected across the Northeast, the South, the central/southern
High Plains, and portions of Montana.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity...

A somewhat similar pattern compared to previous days is expected on
Wednesday. However, the upper trough moving across the region will
be a bit strong as the upper low over the Canadian Prairies finally
becomes more progressive. A belt of 50-70 kt southwesterly flow
between 700-500 mb is noted in various forecast guidance, supporting
40+ kt effective shear magnitudes and supercell wind profiles. The
boundary layer continues to be very moist, with dewpoints in the mid
60s to mid 70s present beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates,
resulting in strong to extreme buoyancy.

Convection may be ongoing early in the period near southern MN,
though where exactly these storms are located depends on convective
evolution in the current Day 1/Tuesday period. This convection could
be severe with a risk for damaging winds and hail. It is possible
this activity could develop east/northeast along the surface
boundary and intensify through the morning/afternoon as it moves
across WI and pose a severe risk of damaging winds. Or, it could
weaken and additional severe storms could develop near the surface
boundary across WI/northern MI during the day. Another round of
convection is expected to develop during the evening across southern
MN. This activity could initially be supercells, with an
accompanying all-hazards severe risk. However, storms are expected
to quickly grow upscale into a bowing MCS, moving east/northeast
through the nighttime hours across WI/MI.

While exact convective evolution is uncertain, it does appear that
more than one round of severe storms is possible across the region
on Wednesday. Swaths of damaging winds (some to near 80 mph) appear
likely. Isolated large to very large hail also is possible,
especially if any supercell storm mode can persist. A few tornadoes
also will be possible.

...Northeast...

Enhanced west/northwesterly flow will continue on Wednesday across
the region. Another day of very moist and hot conditions is
expected, supporting a corridor of strong to extreme buoyancy.
Thunderstorm clusters posing a damaging wind and isolated hail risk
will be possible during the afternoon. More organized convection is
expected to sweep across the region during the evening/overnight
hours as the upper ridge breaks down with the approach of an upper
shortwave trough over the Upper Great Lakes. Organized convection
over Ontario/Quebec will likely move east/southeast during the
nighttime hours and pose a risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

Convection is expected to develop along a surface dryline Wednesday afternoon/evening. Vertically veering wind profiles will increase
southwesterly flow aloft will support transient supercell structures
initially. Forecast hodographs show 25 kt effective shear magnitudes
amid long/straight hodographs. Strong/severe outflow winds will be
possible, along with isolated hail. Sufficient clustering/outflow
consolidation may occur, supporting greater wind potential,
particularly across the western KS vicinity.

...Lower MS/TN Valleys vicinity...

A similar pattern will exist across the region on Wednesday on the
southern periphery of the upper anticyclone over the eastern U.S.
Forecast guidance once again depicts modest midlevel
east/northeasterly flow providing support for 20-25 kt effective
shear magnitudes. Thunderstorm clusters will develop during the
afternoon within the theta-e axis. The very moist and abundantly
unstable airmass will support a wet microburst risk. If sufficient
clustering occurs, some potential for forward propagating convection
will exist, which could increase damaging wind potential through
early evening.

...MT...

An upper trough over the western U.S. will bring modestly enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across portions of the northern Rockies
Wednesday afternoon/evening. A plume of steeper midlevel lapse rates
will gradually spread northeast from the Great Basin into parts of southwest/central MT atop modest low-level moisture. This will
support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Steep low-level lapse rates and
sufficient vertical shear for organized cells/clusters will result
in a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts.

..Leitman.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 010602
SWODY2
SPC AC 010601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated
strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

...Northern Plains into Mid-Missouri Valley...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across the Rockies will promote a lee
trough and a modest surface low in the vicinity of the Black Hills.
A surface boundary will arc from eastern Montana into northern South
Dakota and southern Minnesota. Moisture advection into the High
Plains will couple with higher terrain of MT/WY/SD as well as the
surface boundary to initiate convection during the afternoon.
Supercells will be likely initially with an attendant risk of large
to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two. Mid-level
lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will promote rapid intensification and
strong downdrafts. Couple this with modest effective shear of 40-45
kt and upscale growth will be likely with time. An MCS is possible
and would likely track along the surface boundary. Wind gusts of 75+
mph would be possible with this activity.

While most guidance does not show development along the surface
boundary towards the mid-Missouri Valley, there will be weak warm
advection ongoing through the day that will increase by late
afternoon. Should storms develop here, they would likely be more isolated/cellular. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and
severe gusts would exist along with a locally greater tornado
threat. This would especially be the case if storms can remain
discrete into the evening when low-level shear increases. Depending
on whether this activity develops/evolves, this will have an impact
on the spatial extent of a greater threat for severe winds into the
evening and beyond. Given that uncertainty, the Slight Risk will be
maintained with potential increases in wind probabilities in
subsequent outlooks as confidence increases.

...Midwest...
Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of the region. At
least an isolated threat for damaging winds and large hail would
exist with this activity. There remain some potential for
intensification to occur as storms move east during the day. The
Slight Risk remains in place into far western Lower Michigan to
account for this potential. Later in the afternoon, redevelopment is
possible along the outflow from earlier activity. The most robust
model signals are in Iowa and parts of Wisconsin. Large hail would
be possible especially in Iowa where mid-level lapse rates would be
steeper. Otherwise damaging winds would be the main threat. A
tornado or two could occur, but low-level shear will be rather weak.

...Northeast...
Strong buoyancy and modest shear will again be in place across the
region. At least isolated storms are possible during the afternoon.
Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity.
Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms, but modest
mid-level lapse rates will limit this threat. Some guidance does
show more organized activity moving into the region from
Ontario/Quebec, but this may not occur until late afternoon.
Confidence in that scenario occurring is too low for an increase in
wind probabilities.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast...
Strong heating of a very moist airmass will promote scattered to
numerous storms during the afternoon. Congealing outflows will help
to organize activity even with very weak shear. Given mid-level
lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, at least marginally severe storms will be
possible. Damaging winds are the expected hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 011729
SWODY2
SPC AC 011727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the
southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms
may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and
parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Within the periphery of an upper high centered over the TN Valley
and Cumberland Plateau, a number of weak mid-level perturbations
(some of convective origin) will progress through the northern and
central Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. At the surface, a lee
cyclone will persist over eastern MT or the western Dakotas with an
associated stationary or warm front extending east through central
MN into northern or central WI. The specific location of that
boundary across MN and WI will be dictated by the extent of
convective outflow generated by storms occurring tonight.


...Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest...

There is considerable spread in 12Z guidance with respect to
fine-scale details of storm evolution during the forecast period.
However, those data indicate a couple potential scenarios that may
unfold. The first one appears to be associated with an MCV
originating from central High Plains convection this afternoon into
tonight, which will move through the mid MO Valley Thursday morning.
Forecast soundings suggest initial storms may be slightly elevated
and rooted within a moderate to strongly unstable environment, which
will coincide with a zone of enhanced mid-level flow accompanying
the MCV. As such, the early-day storms may pose a large hail and
damaging wind risk with the potential for that activity to grow
upscale into a severe-wind-producing MCS that tracks through IA into
southern MN, WI, and perhaps northern IL during the day. Additional
afternoon and evening storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds are possible downstream from the potential MCS, along the outflow-modulated stationary front in MN and WI.

A second, higher-confidence scenario is for diurnally enhanced
thunderstorms to develop in the vicinity of the lee cyclone and
surface front across the western Dakotas, in advance of a short-wave
trough moving through eastern MT. Forecast soundings indicate the
presence of steep lapse rates and resultant moderate instability,
which will coincide with a vertically veering wind profile with
40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. That environment will support
supercells as the initial storm mode with the primary hazard being
large to very large hail. The tornado threat is expected to be
limited by relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads, which will
support stronger cold pool development.

The models indicate the initial storms growing upscale into one or
multiple forward-propagating MCSs across the central and eastern
Dakotas into eastern parts of the Midwest Thursday evening into
night with the potential for corridors of damaging winds with
significant gusts in excess of 75 mph. Uncertainty in the specific
track of the MCS(s) precludes the inclusion of higher wind
probabilities and a related level 3/Enhanced Risk.


...Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast in the vicinity of the
upper high Thursday afternoon. There is a relatively consistent
signal in 12Z guidance that storms will form along the high terrain
of east TN, the western Carolinas, and north GA with a subsequent
west to southwest motion/propagation during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Similar to the 12Z observed soundings this morning,
the forecast environment indicates a belt of enhanced easterly winds
in the 2-4 km AGL layer, which may support cold pool organization
and the potential for a more concentrated damaging wind threat.


...Central High Plains...

Isolated high-based thunderstorms are possible along a lee trough
over far eastern CO into western KS Thursday afternoon and evening.
Steep low/mid-level lapse rates and up to 30 kt of deep-layer shear
may contribute to episodic supercell structures with an attendant
risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.


...Northeast...

In the absence of a discernible surface boundary, the timing and
extent of any thunderstorm development remains uncertain. The most
likely scenario will be for thunderstorms to move into the region
from southern Quebec or southeast Ontario Thursday afternoon into
night. The presence of moderate to strong instability and 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes with
the predominant hazard being damaging winds. Higher wind
probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk may become necessary in
later outlooks once convective details become more certain.

..Mead.. 07/01/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 020602
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will begin to flatten and spread westward on
Friday. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will continue across much of
the Rockies. In the East, stronger cyclonic flow aloft will continue
in New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. A surface low will
deepen in parts of the central High Plains. A
quasi-stationary/outflow composite boundary will be situated within
the central/northern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes region.

...Black Hills vicinity into Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys...
Forecast uncertainty remains with respect to how convection evolves
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Some convection could
linger in parts of South Dakota and possibly Nebraska. At the very
least, portions of the central/northern Plains will be impacted by
outflow from earlier convection. The position of the outflow will
determine where the greater severe threat develops during the
afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will drive the
development of the lee trough that will advect upper 50s to low 60s
F dewpoints into the High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough depicted
in most guidance will initiate convection within the higher terrain
of eastern Montana/Wyoming and the Black Hills. Initial supercells
will be capable of large to very large hail and severe winds.
Additional convection is also possible farther southeast along the
outflow boundary where a weak surface low may enhance low-level lift
of a weakly capped airmass. A similar threat for large/very large
hail and severe winds would accompany this activity. Should the
activity farther east remain discrete into early evening, a
marginally greater tornado risk would exist. Between these two zones
of convection, upscale growth will allow one or more MCS to develop
and track along the boundary. The lead MCS would have greater
potential for severe winds (some 75+ mph). The low-level jet
response during the evening will not be overly strong, but it should
be enough to help convection to continue into parts of Iowa later in
the evening.

...Northern Illinois into northwest Ohio...
With an MCV and related convection likely moving through the Great
Lakes region to the north, an outflow/theta-e boundary will settle
somewhere within these areas. Model guidance suggests that heating
along this boundary will promote scattered storm development. Modest enhancement to deep-layer shear due to the MCV may allow for modest organization of a cluster/linear segment that travels east along the
boundary. Wind probabilities have been increased to account for this
potential.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Model spread still exists as to where the greatest storm coverage
will exist during the afternoon. Temperatures nearing 100 F and 60s
F dewpoints will support strong destabilization across the region.
The degree of temperature-dewpoint spreads will promote efficient
downdraft production. Effective shear will be greatest in the
northern Mid-Atlantic where around 30 kt of flow at 500 mb will
exist. This should promote clusters/linear segments capable of wind
damage. Towards the Blue Ridge, storm coverage is much less certain
given the very weak forcing. Damaging downbursts are still possible
with storms that can develop. Model trends will continue to be
monitored for any increase in expected storm coverage.

...Tennessee Valley into Ohio Valley...
Strong heating of a mid/upper 60s F dewpoint airmass will promote
4000+ J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Weak shear will limit storm
organization, but subtle shortwave troughs moving around the upper
anticyclone could allow for locally greater storm
coverage/clustering. Damaging downburst winds are the expected
hazard.

...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest...
Forecast uncertainty remains medium to high in terms of how much destabilization will occur within these areas. Guidance generally
suggests convection/cloud cover will exist during the morning and
potentially parts of the afternoon. A broad marginal remains in
place for damaging winds and isolated large hail potential should
enough destabilization occur.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021719
SWODY2
SPC AC 021717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of
Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are
also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains
into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
An upper high will remain over the Appalachians and Carolinas, with
a somewhat weaker ridge aloft extending westward into the southern
Rockies. Relatively cool midlevel temperatures will generally
stretch from the northern Plains and across much of the Great Lakes
an Northeast, as modest mid and high level westerlies persist. In
the low levels, substantial moisture and instability will persist
across those same areas, as south to southwest surface winds
maintain 70s F dewpoints around the northern periphery of a
southeast U.S. surface high. An east-west oriented boundary will
stretch from the northern Plains eastward across the Great Lakes
region, with various clusters of thunderstorms throughout the period
within this unstable zone.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Any outflows from overnight convection are likely to mix, with
strong instability developing. Cells will form over the northern
High Plains initially with localized hail and wind. Larger coverage
of storms will occur from southern SD into northern NE during the
mid/late afternoon, with general upscale growth into one or more
MCSs. However, supercells may occur initially with large hail and a
brief tornado. Supporting a severe MCS will be ample precipitable
water, strong instability, and an increasing southerly low-level jet
during the evening. Additional isolated hail or wind may occur near
the surface trough into western KS and toward the TX Panhandle where temperatures will be hot.

...Much of the Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and across NY, PA
and NJ...
The entire corridor stretching from northern IL/southern WI into NY
and NJ will destabilize with daytime heating and robust moisture.
Storms are most likely from WI/IL during the late afternoon, and
also near the Lower Great Lakes, affecting OH, PA, NY. Modest
westerlies aloft and the uncapped air mass across the area will
support a few longer-lived clusters of storms capable of damaging
wind gusts. Some of the activity may proceed into western New
England into early evening.

...TN Valley and northern GA...
Within the weak easterly flow regime aloft, just south of the upper
ridge, storms are expected to form during the afternoon with the
very moist and unstable air mass. Mid 70s F dewpoints will again
lead to strong instability, with multicell clusters moving
west/northwest by mid/early afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts
are possible.

..Jewell.. 07/02/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030535
SWODY2
SPC AC 030533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a remnant mid-level high, now centered near or
just east the southern Appalachians, will become suppressed by the
beginning of this period. A new high may become a bit more
prominent upstream, near and to the lee of the southern Rockies,
with ridging also building to its northwest, from portions of the
eastern Great Basin through portions of the mid Missouri Valley. To
the east of this ridging, weak initially zonal flow may transition
to a broadly cyclonic regime across the Upper Midwest and lower
Missouri into Ohio Valleys. Stronger westerlies are likely to
remain confined to higher latitudes, but one embedded larger-scale
trough is forecast to dig across the Canadian Maritimes and New
England Saturday through Saturday night.

In lower levels, more substantive cooling/drying may overspread much
of northern New England during the day, and perhaps the Adirondacks
vicinity and portions of the upper Great Lakes by late Saturday
night. However, this may be preceded by a diffuse/weak front,
perhaps augmented by convective outflow is some locations, advancing
southward across the Mid Atlantic, Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys
and central Great Plains through the period.

Along and south of the lead front/convective outflow, a
boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content may
again become characterized by large potential instability with
daytime heating. This will probably become supportive of widely
scattered to scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at
least some severe weather risk. The magnitude/areal coverage of
this potential remains uncertain, and will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments that are of low predictability at this
extended time frame, as evidenced by sizable model spread still
apparent in latest model output, including convection-allowing
guidance.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Potential convective evolution remains uncertain, with forcing for
ascent to support thunderstorm development unclear. However, there
appears some general consensus in model output that at least
scattered thunderstorm development will initiate in response to
daytime boundary-layer destabilization across the Allegheny Plateau,
as mid-level heights subtly begin to fall. This is forecast to
develop eastward across the Mid Atlantic by early evening.

Given the degree of instability forecast, and possibly a belt of
convectively augmented flow (including 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer) spreading east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity, there appears potential for one or two organizing
clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts to evolve.

...Central Great Plains...
Given the possible general tendency for larger-scale mid-level
height rises across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, and
spread evident in model output, convective potential for this period
remains uncertain. However, lingering convectively generated or
augmented perturbations within evolving northwesterly mid-level flow
could support widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development, including a few supercells by early Saturday evening.
This may be focused in moistening southeasterly low-level flow
across parts of northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, and near
a zone of strengthening differential heating on the southwestern
flank of a stalled outflow boundary across western into central
Kansas.

Warm advection and convergence near the nose of a nocturnally
strengthening southerly low-level jet, with boundary-layer
decoupling across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into
southwestern Kansas, seems to offer the best support for a possible
upscale growing cluster, which could maintain a risk for large hail
and strong to severe surface gusts into Saturday night.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031734
SWODY2
SPC AC 031732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic, and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will be located over eastern Canada, with southern
periphery sweeping across the Northeast with 30 kt midlevel
westerlies extending as far south as PA/NJ. To the west, a weak
upper trough will move across the northern and central Plains, with
embedded disturbances related to thunderstorms into parts of the
Midwest. Relatively cool temperatures aloft will exist across the
Plains region, aiding destabilization.

At the surface, a trough will extend from the TX Panhandle into MO,
IL, and IN, with a moist and unstable air mass nearby. Easterly
winds north of this trough will maintain moderate moisture levels
into the central High Plains. A surface trough will also deepen over
the Northeast and Mid Atlantic during the day, providing a focus for
storms during the afternoon from VA into PA/NJ.

...PA...VA...MD...DE...NJ...
Substantial moisture and instability will exist across the region,
with tall CAPE profiles and 3000-4000 J/kg MUCAPE common with 70s F
dewpoints and daytime heating. Storms may develop in several areas,
including southern NY into PA and OH, and, within the trough VA into
PA/NJ.

CAMs generally suggest scattered cells developing by mid afternoon
over much of VA and into PA, MD, DE and NJ. Scattered wind gusts of
40-50 kt appear likely, with isolated stronger gusts. Weak
westerlies aloft may support slow east/southeastward moving cells.

...CO...NE...KS...
Scattered storms are forecast to develop from southeast WY into the
Front Range, as well as western NE, during the afternoon beneath
cool temperatures aloft and where low-level easterlies will aid
moisture advection into the heated air mass. Directional shear may
favor a few cells capable of severe hail, including near the
Colorado Springs area. Addition cells or clusters may spread
southeastward across western NE and northwest KS, with damaging
gusts possible.

A more substantial severe risk may develop into south-central KS and
perhaps far northern OK late in the day. Here, locally larger SRH
will exist north of a weak surface low. Instability will be large as temperatures warm into the 90s F and dewpoints remain in the upper
60s F. Veering wind with height and effective shear near 40 kt
suggest a few supercells initially, with large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. During the
evening, CAMs suggest an MCS may develop, dropping southeastward
across southern KS, including the Wichita area, and into northern
OK. Damaging wind gusts would be the main concern.

...Parts of Central MO...
CAM signals are mixed with timing of convective systems near the
surface trough. However, strong instability will be present across
the entire region. Depending on later model output, the Slight Risk
may need to be extended farther into MO/I-70 corridor as
predictability increases.

..Jewell.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040512
SWODY2
SPC AC 040510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern
Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively
suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude
westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes
through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave
trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and
New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough
and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador
Sea.

Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of
embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue
progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It
appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest
surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba.
However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that
forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border.

To the south of the international border, models suggest that
mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central
Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the
middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing,
likely with a number of embedded convectively generated
perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic.

To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of
moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the
generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing,
severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by
sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this
extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable
spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance.

...Mid Atlantic...
There remains little general change from prior model output. It
still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly
well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to
develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both
of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm
development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance
for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface
trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just
south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a
lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented
westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could
organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce
damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined
boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late
afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher
terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton
Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for
thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some
signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while
propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply
mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening,
accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts.

...Northwestern North Dakota...
There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning
potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface
troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday
afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to
remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low
severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041704
SWODY2
SPC AC 041703

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated strong storms
also are possible across Montana and western North Dakota, and
portions of the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic...

A weak surface low is forecast to move west to east along a sagging
cold front/baroclinic zone draped across PA into northern
NJ/southeast NY on Sunday/Sunday evening. Meanwhile, lee troughing
will develop across VA. A hot and very moist airmass will reside
near and south of these boundaries, which will serve as a focus for
severe storm development during the afternoon and into evening.
Southwesterly flow aloft will weaken through the day as an upper
shortwave impulse lifts northeast of the region, but around 20-30 kt mid/upper-level flow will persist. Moderate to strong
destabilization is expected and thunderstorm clusters are expected
by early to mid-afternoon. Sufficient clustering could occur along
the southward-sagging cold front and one or more forward propagating
clusters will be possible from northern VA into southeast PA until
storms move offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast during the evening.
Sufficient consistency among deterministic/CAMs and AI/ML guidance
exists regarding storm coverage to warrant an upgrade to 30 percent
wind probabilities for portions of the region.

...Southern Plains to TN Valley...

An remnant/weakening MCS is expected to be located over OK or AR
Sunday morning. An MCV related to this feature will progress
eastward toward the Lower MS and TN Valley vicinity through the day.
Further south and west near the Red River Valley/North Texas into
the southern High Plains, outflow associated with the late-Day
1/Saturday into early Day 2/Sunday MCS may arc across this region.
Differential heating could occur along this boundary, providing
support for redevelopment during the afternoon/evening. Boundary
layer moisture will be modest with westward extent into the High
Plains, but steep lapse rates aloft, and increasing moisture with
eastward extent into the Lower MS Valley will support a corridor of
moderate instability in the vicinity of the surface boundary.
Northwesterly flow aloft will also modestly strengthen through the
day, fostering weak, but perhaps sufficient vertical shear for
transient organized cells/clusters along the boundary.

Further east, the MCV will locally enhance vertical shear amid a
very moist and moderately unstable airmass. This could foster
potential for one or more forward propagating storm clusters, and
some risk for damaging gusts from wet microbursts, leading to a
broad expansion of the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk across parts of
the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity.

...Northern Rockies into North Dakota...

West/southwest flow aloft will strengthen across MT into ND as an
upper shortwave trough moving across western Canada glances northern
portions of the U.S. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will
stretch from the northern Great Basin through southern/eastern MT
into the western Dakotas. Low-level moisture will not be impressive,
but the steep lapse rates aloft will support a corridor of modest destabilization across MT, and somewhat greater across western ND
where boundary-layer moisture will be marginally better along a
surface trough. Vertically veering wind profiles, with increasing
speeds above 700 mb will support effective shear magnitudes greater
than 30 kt, and organized storms are possible. Strong gusts and
isolated hail will be the main hazards with these storms during the
afternoon into evening.

..Leitman.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050445
SWODY2
SPC AC 050443

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe
weather is possible across parts of northern Minnesota through the
eastern and central Dakotas, as well as across parts of the Mid
Atlantic, Monday afternoon into evening.

...Discussion...
Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an
associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly
prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and
central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend
to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern
Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable
mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario
and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.

It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing,
and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the
north of the international border, may provide support for stronger
secondary surface cyclogenesis across the southern Hudson Bay
vicinity by Monday night.

To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may
continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.

In association with this evolving regime, the potential for
organized severe thunderstorm activity still appears generally low
and dependent on sub-synoptic developments with rather low
predictability at this time frame. This continues to be reflected
in latest model output, including convection allowing and related
guidance, which exhibit sizable spread concerning potential
convective evolution and locations with higher probabilities for
thunderstorm development.

...Northern Great Plains...
Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to
pass to the north of the international border through this period.
However, there appears at least some continuing signal in model
output that boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak
pre-frontal surface troughing, coincident with southeastward
suppression of warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
air, could allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development by
late Monday afternoon. If this occurs, moderate to large potential instability, in the presence of at least modest shear beneath 30-40
kt 500 mb flow, probably will be conducive to storms capable of
producing severe hail and wind, before perhaps tending to be
undercut by a southward advancing cold front trailing the developing
Canadian cyclone.

...Mid Atlantic...
The timing and/or location of highest thunderstorm probabilities
across the region differs notably between the REFS and HREF
calibrated thunderstorm guidance, and deep-layer mean flow and shear
will be rather weak. However, destabilization within broad, weak
surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge might become
sufficient to focus scattered thunderstorm development with
potential to produce localized damaging surface gusts Monday
afternoon into early evening.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051732
SWODY2
SPC AC 051730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and severe gusts are
possible across parts of the northern Plains into the Midwest.
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts are also possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and lower Mississippi Valley.

...Northern Plains into the Midwest...
Within the base of a midlevel trough moving eastward across SK/MB,
modest midlevel height falls and a belt of 40-kt midlevel flow will
overspread the northern Plains and upper Midwest. This will promote
scattered thunderstorms along a southeastward-moving cold front
during the afternoon into the nighttime hours. Rich boundary-layer
moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will yield strong
buoyancy along/ahead of the front. This, combined with around 40 kt
of effective shear, will promote a few organized clusters and
possibly supercell structures capable of large hail and severe wind
gusts.

...Mid-Atlantic...
In the vicinity of a surface trough in the lee of the Blue Ridge,
bands and clusters of storms will overspread a moist and strongly
unstable air mass during the afternoon. Despite limited deep-layer
shear and related storm organization, the environment will be
conducive for damaging wind gusts with the stronger cores.

...Lower Mississippi Valley...
An embedded midlevel impulse in the base of a broad, positive-tilt
large-scale trough will provide a focus for scattered afternoon
thunderstorm development across the lower MS Valley. Generally weak
deep-layer shear will limit overall thunderstorm
organization/longevity, though strong surface-based buoyancy and the
potential for small bands/clusters of storms will favor damaging
wind gusts.

..Weinman.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster
with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late
Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern
South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm
clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and
southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

...Discussion...
It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less
progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday.
As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic
latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only
slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the
northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly
pivots inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing,
comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within
the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S.,
is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does,
models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level
ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday
night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along
an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and
southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the
subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It
appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern
New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear
axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into
southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined,
quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity.

...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of
elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across
the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger
boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong
destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that
this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold
front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew
points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of
2000 J/kg.

Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains
uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent
associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this
occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least
marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late
Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the
evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears
possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to
severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward.

...Mid Atlantic...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with
highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along
and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded
within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less, thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and
modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger
storms.

There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm
advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster
propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening,
with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a
consolidating gust front.

...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus
higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across
the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak
mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate
potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime
heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by
potential for a few strong downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061708
SWODY2
SPC AC 061707

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms producing damaging winds are most likely over parts of
the Dakotas into Minnesota from Tuesday afternoon into the
overnight, with other isolated storms producing hail or wind over
the northern High Plain. Daytime storms may produce isolated wind
damage over northeast Texas and over Virginia and North Carolina.

...Dakotas into Minnesota...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move eastward across the
northern Plains Tuesday, with increasing mid and high level winds
aloft enhancing shear. Low pressure will develop over western SD and
NE, with a quasi-stationary front extending eastward across SD into
central MN. Southerly winds will aid boundary layer mixing with
strong heating from the central High Plains into central SD, while
upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints persist near the stationary front
with easterly surface winds.

Areas of thunderstorms may occur early in the day from MT into ND
where elevated instability will exist. Some of this activity may
transition to surface based by afternoon, with a probable MCS
developing into northern SD and moving into western MN overnight.
MLCAPE of 2000-3000 along with a nocturnal low-level jet will
support corridors of wind damage. Other storms are likely during the
late afternoon near the low and extending southwestward within the
surface trough. Some of these cells may produce large hail along
with locally damaging gusts.

...Northeast Texas into western Louisiana...
A weak midlevel trough will remain from the lower to mid MS Valley
into eastern TX, with cooler temperatures aloft. Daytime heating and
70s F dewpoints may yield strong instability across the northeast TX
area, where clusters of storms appear likely after 20Z. Modest lapse
rates aloft and weak shear will favor robust but short duration
storms with locally damaging downbursts.

..Virginia and North Carolina...
Strong heating and weak westerlies aloft will induce a surface
trough across central VA into the Carolinas, with MUCAPE over 1500
J/kg likely developing. Storms may develop within this trough by
peak heating, and also over the higher terrain during the afternoon.
Locally damaging gusts may occur, especially with any congealing
clusters.

..Jewell.. 07/06/2026

$$

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