ACUS03 KWNS 260728
SWODY3
SPC AC 260727

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary hazards.

...Eastern North Dakota into Minnesota...
Some convection is expected to be ongoing during the early morning
in eastern North Dakota. Given the time of day, it is not clear how
intense this activity will be, but some risk for damaging
winds/large hail may exist. With time, a plume of rich surface
moisture and steep mid-level lapse rates will lift northward as the
upper ridge builds in the Midwest. The morning activity may be able
to intensify as is moves into northern Minnesota/northern Wisconsin.
While there remains some uncertainty in the exact evolution, the
Slight Risk has been shifted eastward to account for this potential.

...Northern Plains...
Convection is possible during the late evening as another shortwave
pivots into the High Plains and a surface low deepens in the lee of
the Rockies. The position of this shortwave is not certain. The
ECMWF shows the surface low developing in the central High Plains
while the NAM suggest this will occur farther north into
Nebraska/South Dakota. In either case, steep mid-level lapse rates,
strong deep-layer winds, and adequate buoyancy will support a risk
of large hail and isolated severe gusts during late evening into
parts of the overnight.

...Midwest into Tennessee Valley Vicinity...
Models suggest potential for an MCV to move southeastward through
the day. The position of this feature varies substantially between
models, however, and it will depend on if/how much convection
develops late Saturday night. Marginal severe probabilities may be
needed if confidence on the location of the MCV increases.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 261917
SWODY3
SPC AC 261916

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into
parts of the Upper Midwest on Sunday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary hazards.

...Synopsis...

The western U.S. upper trough will deepen and persist over that
region on Sunday. Meanwhile, upper ridging will intensify over the
Midwest into the South, while a shortwave upper trough moves from
the Ohio Valley to the southern Mid-Atlantic region. At the surface,
some uncertainty persists with regards to the location of lee
surface low development in the central or northern Plains. The NAM
appears to be an outlier compared to the ECMWF/GFS and the AI
versions thereof. This will be important for where the best corridor
of severe thunderstorm potential develops on Sunday
afternoon/evening. Further east, a surface front will sag southward
across the Upper OH Valley and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Between
these surface boundaries, a seasonally very moist airmass will exist
across at least eastern portions of the Plains to the MS Valley and
the southern Mid-Atlantic.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest vicinity...

The forecast for Sunday is highly uncertain. Forecast guidance
suggests a shortwave impulse and/or MCV will move across northern MN
during the afternoon/evening. This area will be beneath the upper
ridge axis and could be capped. However, a very moist airmass will
be in place beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. Furthermore, a
strong southerly low-level jet is expected to focus from the central
Plains to the Upper MS Valley during the evening/nighttime hours. If
storms can develop and become near-surface based, potential for
damaging wind gusts and large hail will be possible. This scenario
is generally supported by the RRFS and GSL MPAS, though
location/timing varies.

Forecast guidance develops additional areas of convection across
portions of western NE/central SD into ND on the western periphery
of stronger capping and near the surface trough/dryline within the
gradient of stronger instability. This scenario is uncertain, both
regarding storm development, and if storms occur, whether or not
they will be surface-based. However, if storms do develop, an
intense low-level jet within the strongly unstable airmass during
the evening/overnight hours could support damaging wind potential.
The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been adjusted to reflect this
conditional risk.

...Southern Mid-Atlantic...

Forecast guidance suggests an MCV will move across the central
Appalachians into parts of VA/NC on Sunday. Deep-layer flow is not
expected to be particularly strong, but this feature could locally
enhanced vertical shear, with some guidance showing effective shear
magnitudes up to 25 kt are possible. A seasonally very moist airmass
will reside east of the higher terrain across southeast VA into the
eastern Carolinas, supporting moderate destabilization as strong
daytime heating occurs. Thunderstorms will pose an isolated damaging
wind risk into early evening.

..Leitman.. 06/26/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 270731
SWODY3
SPC AC 270730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns.

...Central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough is expected to eject into the Dakotas and the
Upper Midwest. The timing and evolution of this feature varies in
model guidance. The ECMWF suggests a later and a more
eastward-moving wave ejection as compared to the earlier, meridional
trajectory of the NAM/GFS. These differences lead to drastic
differences in where convection will ultimately form. The farther
north solutions show little in the way of convection as compared to
the ECMWF. A very moist airmass will be in place along with steep
mid-level lapse rates overspreading the area. The amplified ridge in
the East will remain in place and will suppress thunderstorm
potential away from the trough/cold front. Models all suggest
extreme buoyancy (4500+ J/kg MLCAPE) will develop within the warm
sector. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough for organized storms.
Given the potential for intense storms, a broad Slight will be
maintained with the caveat that convective development is somewhat conditional/uncertain.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 271918
SWODY3
SPC AC 271917

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0217 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns.

...Central/Northern Plains to Upper Midwest...

The forecast for Monday remains uncertain with forecast guidance
depicting a wide envelop for severe potential across portions of the
Missouri Valley into the Upper Midwest.

At the large scale, an upper ridge will persist from the central
Gulf Coast northward to the Upper Great Lakes. Further west, a
shortwave upper trough is forecast to eject from the central Rockies
into Manitoba/western Ontario. This will bring a belt of enhanced
mid/upper southwesterly flow across the northern Plains and Upper MS
Valley. At the surface, low pressure or an MCV over the Dakotas will
lift generally northeast while a trough/surface front extends
southward across the eastern Dakotas. The evolution of these
features is uncertain, with some guidance lifting the low and any
accompany severe risk quickly northward into Canada early in the
day. Other guidance is slower and further south, favoring a corridor
of severe potential across the eastern Dakotas and MN during the
day. While these details remain a question mark, a very moist
airmass will be in place with strong to extreme instability
forecast. Depending on mesoscale details, an all-hazards severe risk
could develop - though damaging wind and large hail appear most
likely at this time. Given uncertainty, outlook changes are modest
with this update.

..Leitman.. 06/27/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 280731
SWODY3
SPC AC 280730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday.

...Upper Midwest...
Though the primary shortwave trough will be lifting into Canada, a
remnant cold front will be situated across parts of northern
Wisconsin into Minnesota. Strong to extreme buoyancy will be present
south of this boundary. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will
promote 40-45 kt of effective shear within the warm sector.
Mid-level ascent will generally be weak. Where convection can
initiate on the mesoscale, damaging winds and large hail may occur.
There is some potential that an MCS could develop given the
substantial buoyancy, but it is not clear where the preferred
corridor for that will be at this time.

...Northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska...
A modest shortwave trough will move into the central Rockies. A
surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado. This will
draw low-level moisture into parts of the High Plains. Given around
40 kt of effective shear, supercells capable of large hail and
severe gusts would be possible. Low-level shear will also be
enhanced near the surface low and a tornado or two could also occur.

...Northeast...
Given the upper-level pattern, strong convection could be occurring
in Canada and move southeastward around the upper ridge. Depending
on the timing/intensity of this potential activity, severe
probabilities may be needed in future outlooks. Confidence remains
low at this time, however.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 281910
SWODY3
SPC AC 281909

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the central High
Plains into the Upper Midwest, and across parts of the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Mid-MO Valley to Upper Great Lakes...

A compact upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be located
over the Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest Tuesday morning.
This system will progress east/northeast through the day. While
large-scale ascent will increasing be focused north of the
international border, stronger southwesterly deep-layer flow will
persist for most of the day before weakening by evening. At the
surface, a stalled surface front will be oriented from northeast MN
into southeast SD/northern NE. Convection may be ongoing near this
boundary somewhere in MN or perhaps northern WI/Michigan Upper
Peninsula vicinity. A very moist airmass will be in place and strong
to extreme instability is forecast through the day across portions
of the region. If organized storms can develop, a risk for damaging
winds and hail is possible - particularly if upscale development
into a bowing segment occurs. Overall the forecast remains uncertain
and any corridors of greater severe potential will be heavily
influenced by remnant convection from the Day 2/Monday period and
mesoscale impacts thereof.

...CO/KS/NE/SD...

An upper shortwave impulse initially over the Great Basin early
Tuesday will eject eastward across the central Rockies and into the
adjacent High Plains during the evening/overnight hours. As this
occurs, a lee surface low will develop. Increasing
south/southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest boundary
layer moisture north and west. Isolated storms may develop near the
lee low and surface trough across eastern CO into western KS and
northeastward across western NE into southern SD along the remnant
cold front/effective warm front extending west to east near the
NE/SD border. Damaging winds and hail are possible with this
activity, though storm coverage and mesoscale details remain
uncertain.

...Northeast...

Most forecast guidance suggest storms will develop southeast across
the region from Canada within a mid/upper-level northwesterly flow
regime on the eastern periphery of an upper ridge. A very moist
airmass will support a corridor of moderate to strong instability,
though the north and eastward extent of stronger instability is
uncertain. Forecast soundings indicated 25-35 kt effective shear
magnitudes, and isolated supercells will be possible. If sufficient
clustering or outflow consolidation occurs, a forward propagating
band of storms also is possible. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary hazard, though isolated hail or even a tornado also will be
possible depending on storm mode and evolution. If confidence
increases in a corridor of greater severe potential higher
probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks.

..Leitman.. 06/28/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 290735
SWODY3
SPC AC 290734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on
Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level pattern across the CONUS will not significantly
change from Tuesday into Wednesday. A broad trough in the West will
maintain modest to moderate mid-level flow across the Plains into
the Upper Midwest. Some stronger mid-level flow is possible in the
Upper Great Lakes vicinity due to the main synoptic trough displaced
to the north in Canada. Moderate northwesterly winds aloft will
persist in the Northeast as well. Strong to extreme buoyancy will
develop during the afternoon from the Upper Midwest into the
Northeast with a very moist airmass beneath the upper ridge.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A stalled surface boundary will may eventually make modest northward
progress as a weak surface trough develops in the central/northern
Plains. Models suggest convection will be ongoing early in the
morning in the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity. Given the strong
low-level jet expected, it is not clear if this convection will
weaken during the morning or continue eastward into an increasingly
unstable airmass. Depending on how that early activity evolves,
there is potential for another round of convection to develop along
the boundary in the Upper Mississippi Valley. This may be aided by a
subtle shortwave trough moving northeast. In either case, MCS
development is possible with time. Damaging winds and isolated large
hail are possible, though there may end up being a corridor of
greater wind damage potential should an MCS develop. Greater severe probabilities may be needed as confidence increases.

...Northeast...
Forcing for ascent will be more nebulous on Wednesday. Even so, the
very unstable environment will promote a risk of strong/damaging
downburst winds as well as isolated large hail. Given the
uncertainty in storm coverage, only low severe probabilities have
been added.

..Wendt.. 06/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 291900
SWODY3
SPC AC 291900

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible from the
central Plains into the Upper Midwest as well the Northeast on
Wednesday. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main concerns.

...Synopsis...

The overall synoptic pattern will not changes much from Day
2/Tuesday into Day 3/Wednesday. The upper ridge over the eastern
U.S. may shift slightly east while an upper trough persists over the
West. A series of midlevel shortwave impulses will migrate across
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity. Enhanced
mid/upper flow will persist from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes
and over the Northeast.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

A quasi-stationary boundary is forecast to extend from northern WI
toward southeast SD Wednesday morning. This boundary may slowly lift
northward during the afternoon. The evolution of this boundary will
largely be influenced by morning convection that may be ongoing
near/north of the boundary across parts of MN/WI at the beginning of
the period. Given a very moist airmass, strong to extreme
instability is forecast near and south of the boundary. Morning
convection could weaken as it lifts north of the boundary, or it
could intensify through the day as destabilization occurs, spreading
east across the Upper Great Lakes. Another round of convection may
develop during the late afternoon into the nighttime hours along the
boundary as well. While convective evolution is uncertain, the
thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space will support a risk for
severe wind gusts and large hail. Enhanced low-level shear near the
surface boundary could also result in a corridor of tornado
potential. Higher severe probabilities will likely be needed in
subsequent outlooks as mesoscale details and convective evolution
become more clear and forecast confidence increases.

...Northeast...

Large-scale ascent will not be as strong across the region on
Wednesday, though forecast guidance does show a shortwave impulse or
MCV moving across the area as it crosses the international border
from Canada. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in
place and strengthening mid/upper northwesterly flow will support
some organized severe risk. However, storm coverage remains
uncertain. Strong downburst winds and isolated large hail will be
possible. The wind risk could increase if sufficient storm
coverage/interaction results in clustering/bowing segments, but this
scenario is uncertain given a lack of stronger low-level jet. Trends
will be monitored and higher severe probabilities may be needed in
subsequent outlooks.

...Central High Plains...

A surface trough will extend southward from western SD/NE into
eastern CO/NM on Wednesday. Southerly low-level flow will maintain
modest boundary layer moisture beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Southerly flow through around 500 mb will be somewhat weak, though southwesterly flow increases substantially above that. This could be
sufficient for weakly organized convection developing within upslope
flow along the surface trough Wednesday afternoon/evening. Given
weaker instability and more modest vertical shear compared to
previous days, severe potential is more uncertain. However, strong
outflow gusts still appear possible given a deeply mixed boundary
layer and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles.

...Southeast...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop on the
southern periphery of the upper anticyclone Wednesday afternoon. A
very moist and strongly unstable airmass will be in place, but
vertical shear appears a bit weaker compared to Day 2/Tuesday. Storm
coverage is uncertain, but some risk for locally strong gusts may
develop, especially if sufficient clustering can occur to promote
forward propagation.

..Leitman.. 06/29/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 300735
SWODY3
SPC AC 300734

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated
strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging will continue in the East with broad cyclonic flow in
the West. Embedded shortwave troughs will likely impact the northern
Plains. Another shortwave trough embedded within northwesterly flow
aloft will move into parts of the Northeast. A stalled surface
boundary will be present from the northern High Plains into the
Upper Midwest with a lee trough/weak surface low developing in the
High Plains.

...Black Hills into Iowa/Minnesota...
A subtle shortwave trough is evident in model guidance. This feature
will move into Wyoming/Montana and eventually the western Dakotas.
Convection appears likely to develop within the higher terrain (Big
Horns/Black Hills) and move into an airmass with increasingly rich
low-level moisture to the east. Convection should be able to
organize along the surface boundary with around 40 kt of effective
shear parallel to the boundary itself. Additional convection is also
possible along the stationary front as low-level warm advection
increases. Though there is some variability in where any eventual
MCS will propagate, there is enough confidence to include a 15%
severe probability area that encompasses the envelope of potential
tracks. The environment would support significant hail with
supercells and significant winds with an organized MCS.

...Northeast...
Ahead of a cold front attendant from a surface low in Quebec,
convection will be possible during the afternoon. The timing of the
convection, and thus the available buoyancy, is not entirely
certain. Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be possible.

...Tennessee Valley into Southeast...
A subtle easterly wave rotating around the upper anticyclone will
promote afternoon convection within a very moist and unstable
airmass. Given the mid-level lapse rates will fairly steep, storms
will likely be capable of damaging downburst winds despite weak
shear.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 301913
SWODY3
SPC AC 301911

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated
strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

...Northern High Plains to the Upper Midwest...

Upper ridging will build over the northern Plains on Thursday,
though temperatures aloft will remain fairly cool at around -12 to
-10 C at 500 mb. A broad belt of enhanced west/southwesterly
mid/upper-level flow will overspread the region, and a southerly
low-level jet is forecast to intensify across the central into
northern Plains overnight. At the surface, a quasi-stationary
boundary will arc from northern North Dakota into central MN/WI
during the afternoon. Meanwhile, a surface trough will extend
southward along the High Plains. South/southeasterly low-level flow
will maintain a very moist airmass across parts of the central
Plains into the Upper Midwest, while transporting low 60s dewpoints
northwest to near the ND/SD/MT/WY border. A broad swath of moderate
to strong instability will materialize across the warm sector
buffered by these two surface boundaries.

Convection may be ongoing where from the Mid-MO Valley to Upper
Midwest Thursday morning, though this is uncertain. Additional
storms are expected during the afternoon along the surface
boundaries across the northern High Plains southeastward into
MN/IA/WI. Forecast soundings suggest supercell will be possible,
with an accompanying all-hazards risk possible, at least initially.
With time, convection in the High Plains should grow upscale and
track southeast along the surface boundary and in the vicinity of
the terminus of the increasing low-level jet. This activity will
pose a risk of damaging wind swaths. Additional clustering/MCS
development is possible near the surface boundary across MN/WI and
perhaps into Lower MI during the evening/overnight.

...TN Valley Vicinity...

Another modest midlevel shortwave impulse will likely migrate
through easterly flow on the southern periphery of the upper ridge
over the eastern U.S. A very moist and strongly unstable airmass
will once again support a wet microburst risk, with some potential
for sufficient clustering to result in forward propagating
convection. Isolated to widely scattered damaging wind gusts are
expected.

...Northeast...

A weak cold front will approach the region Thursday night as a
surface low over Quebec lifts northeast. Ahead of this feature a
very moist, hot, and unstable airmass will be in place. Minor height
falls throughout the day and increasing westerly flow aloft will
support at least isolated thunderstorm development. Strong/locally
damaging gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 06/30/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 010734
SWODY3
SPC AC 010733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A complex forecast is evident on Friday. The upper-level trough in
the West will lose some amplitude, though modest flow will remain
across portions of the central/northern High Plains along with
embedded shortwave troughs. The most complicating piece of the
forecast will be the convection that is expected to be ongoing
within the Midwest during the morning. The NAM/GFS is decidedly
farther north than the ECMWF with this activity. The NAM has a
strong enough MCS/MCV that it pushes the moist, unstable airmass
farther south through the day whereas the ECMWF keeps a favorable
airmass into the northern Plains. Given the large spatial extent of
strong to severe storm potential, a broad marginal is in place from
the northern Plains into the Midwest/Mid-Atlantic. Shear and
mid-level lapse rates will be more favorable within the High Plains.
A more targeted Slight Risk was added for southern South Dakota into
Nebraska. Here, there will be potential for severe storms along the
outflow from the expected MCS on Thursday. This area has been biased
southward given the potential for storms being elevated atop outflow
farther north. Some northward adjustment is possible if greater
airmass recovery occurs. Another area where greater probabilities
may be needed is in the Great Lakes region depending on the
track/intensity of the MCV that moves eastward out of the Missouri
Valley vicinity. Into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, storm
coverage will be more isolated and deep-layer shear much weaker.
That said, a very unstable airmass could promote isolated damaging
downburst winds.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 011932
SWODY3
SPC AC 011931

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

...Synopsis...

One or multiple mid-level disturbances over the northern and central
High Plains Friday morning are forecast to progress into the upper
Midwest by Friday night. Meanwhile, a downstream belt of west to
west-northwest flow will prevail in the mid levels from the Great
Lakes into Northeast. At the surface, a lee cyclone and attending
trough will exist over the northern High Plains with a secondary low
pressure center over the central Plains. An outflow-modulated warm
or stationary front is expected to extend from the northern Plains
low into the upper Midwest. Elsewhere, there is some model signal
for the development of a surface trough from southern New England
into the Delmarva Friday afternoon.


...Northern and Central Plains into the Midwest and Upper Great
Lakes...

The potential for early-day storms introduces forecast uncertainty
in subsequent afternoon/evening severe weather potential due to the
location of relevant surface boundaries and extent of convective
overturning. However, by afternoon, the models indicate the
development of a broad corridor of moderate to strong instability
across the northern and central Plains into the southern Great Lakes
and OH Valley. Diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is most
probable from the vicinity of the northern Plains lee cyclone and
trough east along the outflow-modulated front within a zone of
forcing for ascent preceding the disturbances mentioned in the
synopsis. The instability combined with modestly strong deep-layer
shear will be supportive of organized storm modes capable of large
to very large hail and damaging winds with the potential for
significant gusts Friday afternoon into night.


...Mid-Atlantic...

Increasing height falls are forecast Friday afternoon into night
downstream from a more prominent short-wave trough progressing into
eastern Ontario and southwest Quebec. The various 12Z models offer
different scenarios in the preferred location of diurnally enhanced
storms with the best overlap extending from portions of southern NY
and northern PA to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The colocation of
moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear in that area may
support some storm organization with the primary hazards being
damaging winds and large hail.

A similar environment is forecast across the region on Saturday,
July 4th, potentially warranting the inclusion of higher severe
weather probabilities.


...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys...

A number of models indicate the potential for one or multiple MCSs
to progress through the region during the forecast period. Vertical
shear is expected to be relatively weak. However, the presence of
moderate to strong instability may promote periods of cold-pool
organization with a related damaging wind threat.

..Mead.. 07/01/2026

$$

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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)

ACUS03 KWNS 020730
SWODY3
SPC AC 020729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered storms will be possible from the central
Plains into the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July
(Saturday). The greatest concentration of strong to severe storms
will be within portions of the Mid-Atlantic.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Strong heating of a very moist airmass will again support 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE by the afternoon. Despite weak shear, inverted-v low-level
profiles will support strong to severe downburst winds that could
produce wind damage. Given the presence of a cold front and surface
trough as well as marginally greater forcing for ascent than Friday,
storm coverage will be greater. A Slight Risk has been added where a
few organizing clusters of storms may occur.

...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity...
While there is still uncertainty, a shortwave trough/MCV is expected
to move through Wisconsin/Minnesota. Convection may be ongoing in
the morning, but some clearing/destabilization will be possible by
the afternoon. Should this occur, a few strong to severe storms
could produce wind damage and perhaps marginal hail. A tornado would
also be possible given the backed surface winds in the vicinity of a
weak surface low.

...Central High Plains...
Moist air will remain behind an outflow/front composite boundary in
the central Plains. This should promote around 40-45 kts of
effective shear across the Front Range. Large hail and severe winds
would be possible with supercells that develop.

...Central Plains into Ohio Valley...
A broad area of 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE will develop south of the quasi-stationary boundary. Damaging wind gusts would be the likely
concern with storms that develop. A greater wind threat could
materialize if any clusters/MCS can develop.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 021921
SWODY3
SPC AC 021920

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS...AND FROM EASTERN OHIO/WEST VIRGINIA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms will be possible from the central Plains into the
Midwest and Mid-Atlantic this Fourth of July (Saturday). The
greatest concentration of strong to severe storms will be within
portions of the Mid-Atlantic, and over parts of the central Plains
late.

...Parts of the Mid Atlantic...
Stronger mid to high level winds exist over the Northeast, though 30
kt at 500 mb will extend as far south as Maryland. A surface trough
will deepen during the day near the I-90 corridor, where 70s F
dewpoints will contribute to moderate instability. Storms may
develop both within the instability plume from OH into PA, and
within the heated surface trough from VA into PA/NJ. Strong wind
gusts will be common, with some severe/damaging gusts likely late
afternoon through early evening during peak heating.

...Central High Plains...
Scattered strong to severe storms may develop near the Front Range
as surface winds back to easterly late in the day. This will bring
moisture westward toward the higher terrain, with most models
showing a few cells developing late afternoon with localized hail
and wind potential. Good direction shear and steep lapse rates aloft
will favor large hail. Storms may then persist into western NE and
KS, with potential areas of severe wind gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/02/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030733
SWODY3
SPC AC 030732

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic, and perhaps parts of the
southern Great Plains, Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
The stronger mid-latitude westerlies likely will remain confined to
the higher latitudes through this period. Within this regime, one
initially notable short wave trough is forecast to gradually merge
into a significant mid-level low digging through the Labrador Sea,
as it accelerates away from the Canadian Maritimes and northern New
England. Upstream, mid-level troughing may gradually consolidate
across and east of the Canadian Prairies, and support modest surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan and Manitoba. However, it
currently appears that stronger forcing for ascent, and potential
for severe thunderstorm development, will remain focused to the
north of the international border.

To the south of this perturbation, models suggest that mid-level
ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central Great
Plains at the outset of the period, will expand eastward across the
middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
through Sunday night. Downstream, weak troughing, with embedded
convectively generated perturbations, will probably continue to
overspread the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

The focus for renewed thunderstorm development east of the southern
Great Plains into the Ohio Valley, Cumberland and Allegheny Plateau
remains unclear and will be considerably influenced by
mesoscale/sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this
time frame. In general though, while at least pockets of large
potential instability may conditionally support some risk for storms
with potential to produce localized strong downbursts and gusty
winds along outflows, weak shear will probably limit the potential
for sustained organizing clusters. As such, the risk for severe
winds may not be completely negligible, but it is not clear that it
will reach the 5 percent threshold for an areal outlook.

...Mid Atlantic...
There does appear a general consensus in model output that a
low-level baroclinic zone may remain fairly well defined to the
north through northeast of a surface low developing to the lee of
the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Near or just south of a
residual belt of convectively augmented westerly
lower/mid-tropospheric flow, the environment could become conducive
to organizing thunderstorm development with potential to produce
damaging wind gusts into Sunday evening.

...Raton Mesa/ridge into Texas South Plains...
A bit less certain, guidance suggests that it is possible that a
mid-level perturbation crossing the southern Rockies by Sunday
evening could provide a support for another developing cluster of
storms along a zone of differential surface heating. Moisture
within the strengthening baroclinic zone may provide support for
sizable mixed-layer CAPE, in the presence of modest shear due to
veering of wind fields with height, to support organization
accompanied by a period of strong to severe wind gusts into/through
Sunday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031928
SWODY3
SPC AC 031927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern
Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Isolated severe storms
may affect northern North Dakota late.

...Mid Atlantic States...
Although wind fields aloft will weaken compared to the previous day
as the upper trough lifts out of the Northeast, upper 60s to low 70s
F dewpoints will remain over much of the region. Afternoon storms
are likely to develop from PA southward across the Appalachians, and
these will move eastward into a zone of strong heating/steep
low-level lapse rates into MD/VA. Gusty winds are likely, some
damaging through the evening.

...Northeast NM into northwest TX...
East to southeast surface winds will prevail across the southern
Plains on Sunday, which will aid westward moisture advection into
NM. Shear will be weak, but southeastward-propagating clusters of
storms appear likely late in the day and into the night as storms
move into TX. Sporadic severe gusts may occur.

...Northern ND...
A substantial upper trough will move into the Canadian Prairies late
on Sunday, with the base of this trough sweeping across MT and ND
overnight. A cold front will develop into far eastern MT and western
ND late in the day, proceeding toward the Red River by Monday
morning. Forecast soundings show moderate instability developing,
with veering winds with height and hodographs favorable for
slow-moving supercells. Aiding any such development into the night
will be a nocturnal low-level jet. Isolated large hail appears most
likely.

..Jewell.. 07/03/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040730
SWODY3
SPC AC 040729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorm development posing at least some risk for severe
hail and wind is possible across parts of the central and eastern
Dakotas into northwestern Minnesota Monday into Monday night.

...Discussion...
Downstream of digging large-scale mid-level troughing and an
associated surface cyclone slowly approaching the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast, ridging may become increasingly
prominent across Baja California through the southern Rockies and
central Great Plains during this period. Mid-level heights may tend
to remain steady or slowly rise as far north as the eastern
Montana/North Dakota international border, in the wake of a notable
mid-level trough forecast to progress through northwestern Ontario
and Hudson Bay by late Monday night.

It appears that one vigorous impulse embedded within the troughing,
and forecast to continue accelerating east-northeastward, to the
north of the international border, may provide support for stronger
secondary cyclogenesis near the northern Manitoba/Ontario border
into southern Hudson Bay late Monday/Monday night.

To the east of the mid-level ridging, weak mid-level troughing may
continue to drift slowly east of the Mississippi Valley, toward the Appalachians.

In association with this evolving regime, the potential for
organized severe thunderstorm development appears generally low
Monday through Monday night across most areas, with the possible
exception of parts of the central/eastern Dakotas into northwestern
Minnesota

...Northern Great Plains...
Deeper surface troughing and mid-level height falls are forecast to
pass to the north of the international border through this period.
However, there appears at least some signal in model output that
boundary-layer moisture return to the vicinity of weak pre-frontal
surface troughing, coincident with southeastward suppression of
warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, could
allow for scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk
for severe hail and wind across parts of the central/eastern Dakotas
into northwestern Minnesota. Preceding the leading edge of the
cooling in lower/mid-levels, it is possible that a zone of
strengthening ascent associated with warm advection could support an
upscale growing cluster, aided by updraft inflow of moderately
unstable air. However, this remains more uncertain at this time.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041856
SWODY3
SPC AC 041855

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MINNESOTA...AND THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic and the
northern Plains.

...VA/NC vicinity...

Upper troughing over the Midwest will continue to slowly shift east
toward the Appalachians on Monday. Modest deep-layer southwesterly
flow will overspread the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic
vicinity as a surface low develops in the vicinity of WV. A surface boundary/cold front will sag southward across PA while surface
troughing develops in the lee of the VA/NC mountains. A very moist
airmass will persist and moderate destabilization is forecast.
Thunderstorm clusters will once again develop and pose a risk for
sporadic wind damage Monday afternoon into early evening.

...Northern Plains into northwest MN...

An upper shortwave trough will move east across the Canadian
Prairies, glancing the U.S. northern Plains vicinity. This will
bring a band of enhance mid/upper westerly flow across the region
while a surface cold front develops southeast through the afternoon
and nighttime hours. Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s
dewpoints northward ahead of the front beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to strong
destabilization. It is uncertain how far south convection may
develop as large-scale ascent weakens into South Dakota and capping
increases. However, supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast
soundings, and where storms do develop, an accompanying risk for
severe gusts and large hail is possible. An upgrade to Slight risk
(level 2 of 5) may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in
storm coverage increases.

..Leitman.. 07/04/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050727
SWODY3
SPC AC 050726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
An organizing cluster of thunderstorms may pose increasing potential
to produce strong to severe wind gusts by late Tuesday evening into
Tuesday night across parts of the middle Missouri Valley toward the
Upper Midwest.

...Discussion...
Models suggest that the westerlies may become a bit less progressive
across the higher latitudes of North America during this period,
with a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone only slowly
migrating east-northeastward across Hudson Bay toward the northern
Quebec shores. Upstream, a notable trough is forecast to only
slowly pivot inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, a low-amplitude trough
within modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S.
is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies, and flatten
initial mid-level ridging across the middle Missouri Valley by late
Tuesday night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along
an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and
southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the
subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. A remnant
trough or shear axis will likely linger in between, near/west
through southwest of the southern Appalachians.

...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Latest guidance suggests that potential for stronger convective
development may still remain largely influenced by sub-synoptic
developments with rather low predictability at this time frame.
However, there appears a consistent enough developing convective
signal among the various model output to lead to some confidence in
the evolution of an organized convective system across the mid
Missouri Valley vicinity by late Tuesday night.

It appears that stronger pre-frontal daytime heating may focus
moderate to strong destabilization in a corridor roughly across
south central South Dakota toward southwestern Minnesota by late
Tuesday afternoon. Beneath steep lapse rates, surface dew point
increases to around 70F may support mixed-layer CAPE on the order of
2000-3000+ J/kg.

As remnant warm elevated mixed-layer air is suppressed further
southward, the initiation of storms capable of producing severe
hail and wind seems probable by early Tuesday evening. It is
possible that the most substantive upscale growth, intensification
and organization awaits forcing associated with a nocturnal
strengthening low-level jet toward late evening. But, as this
occurs, the environment appears potentially conducive to the
development of a swath of damaging winds as it propagates
east-southeastward Tuesday night.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051930
SWODY3
SPC AC 051929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk for scattered
damaging wind gusts and large hail on Tuesday across parts of the
middle Missouri Valley toward the Upper Midwest.

...Northern/central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Along the northern periphery of an expansive upper ridge centered
over the Southwest, a low-amplitude midlevel impulse will advance
eastward across the northern Plains into the Midwest through the
period. Related forcing for ascent will support multiple rounds of thunderstorms, generally focused along an ENE/WSW-oriented surface
boundary extending from the Upper Midwest into SD and NE.

While the details regarding convective evolution are unclear and
will be largely influenced by mesoscale factors, a corridor of
moderate-strong surface based buoyancy and elongated hodographs
(40-50 kt of effective shear) will support the potential for
eastward-spreading clusters and supercell structures capable of
damaging winds and large hail through the afternoon/evening. The
greatest potential for an upscale-growing cluster of storms capable
of producing scattered damaging gusts is expected across parts of SD
into southwestern MN -- potentially aided by an eastward-moving
surface wave and gradually strengthening nocturnal LLJ.

...Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas...
Diurnal heating of a very moist air mass (2+ inch PW) may promote
wet microbursts and the potential for localized wind damage with the
stronger thunderstorms that evolve during the afternoon. However,
weak deep-layer flow/shear and nebulous forcing for ascent cast
uncertainty on the overall severe risk, and severe-wind
probabilities have been withheld at this time.

..Weinman.. 07/05/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060732
SWODY3
SPC AC 060731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS INTO UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
It appears that notable remnant mid-level troughing will begin to
dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through Wednesday
night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots northeast then
north of the Canadian Rockies toward the Northwest Territories.
Within the westerlies to the south of this regime, subtle mid-level
ridging may overspread the northern Rockies, with similar amplitude
downstream troughing digging across the northern Great Plains, Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by
convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much
of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and
middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may
be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate
convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm
development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity,
within steering flow trending northwesterly through the period.

...Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of
elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the
higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture
content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still
become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with
daytime heating.

It remains uncertain whether an evolving cluster of storms, and/or a
possible significant MCV emerging from it, will support continuing
or renewed organized thunderstorm development posing a risk for
severe wind gusts into and through the Upper Midwest during the day
Wednesday. However, it is possible that destabilization in its wake
could become sufficient to support strong thunderstorm development
posing a risk for severe hail and wind, ahead of the southward
advancing cold front later Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Otherwise, guidance suggests considerable thunderstorm activity,
initiating off the higher terrain of southeastern Wyoming through
central Colorado by late Wednesday, may gradually intensify and
consolidate within a more unstable environment near a broad/weak
surface cyclone developing across the high plains. Aided by a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, there appears at least
potential for this activity to organize with potential to swaths of
strong to severe surface gusts Wednesday evening, after initially
posing a risk for severe hail and localized downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061925
SWODY3
SPC AC 061924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
A generally zonal pattern will exist on Wednesday, with various
disturbances moving across the northern Plains to Great Lakes. One
disturbance will affect the upper MS Valley to Great Lakes during
the day, with another developing late into the northern High Plains.
Within the entire zone, midlevel westerlies will average 30-35 kt.

In the low levels, a front should stretch from near Lake Superior
into central NE, where it will stall. Widespread mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints will remain ahead of the front, contributing to 2000-3000
J/kg MUCAPE by afternoon.

Early activity is likely moving out of MN and into WI, and may
overturn some of the air mass and push the effective boundary
around. New diurnal storms are then likely during the afternoon,
roughly from WI into southern MN and IA, with wind and hail
potential.

Farther west, scattered strong to severe storms are likely across
the High Plains, where strong heating and steep lapse rates will
favor development beneath modest northwest flow aloft. Moisture and
instability look sufficient, but not overlay strong, and will
support scattered strong to severe gusts and some hail.

..Jewell.. 07/06/2026

$$

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