ACUS48 KWNS 260858
SWOD48
SPC AC 260857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough centered within the Intermountain West will
continue pivoting northeast through the northern Plains on Monday.
This feature will be fairly meridional in character. The strongest
height falls are likely to occur after 00Z within North Dakota. To
the east, an amplified upper ridge will be in place. Moisture
advection will continue in the upper Mississippi Valley given the
southerly low levels winds. Strong to extreme buoyancy is expected
to develop as a result. While this pattern does suggest potential
for severe weather, there is still uncertainty as to where the most
favorable environment will be given the influence of convection that
could occur late on Sunday night into early Monday morning. The 15%
area has been maintained this cycle given the potential for a an MCS
to develop, but modification seems likely in the coming days given
the mesoscale details that will play a large role in where severe
weather ultimately occurs.

From Tuesday onward, the strongest mid-level flow will shift into
Canada as the western upper trough becomes more broad. A large
reservoir of strong to extreme buoyancy is still forecast to be in
place underneath the ridge. While areas of severe weather are
possible, they will be highly tied to mesoscale features as larger
scale features will become more nebulous and deep-layer shear will
weaken through the remainder of the period. As a result,
predictability is reduced.

..Wendt.. 06/26/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 270859
SWOD48
SPC AC 270857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The upper-level pattern from the middle of the new week onward will
be relatively stagnant. The upper ridge in the East will remain
entrenched while broad cyclonic flow will persist in the West before potentially breaking down by the weekend. This will drive a belt of
weak to moderate mid-level southwesterlies across the
central/northern Plains. Repeated lee trough development along with
the surface high in the East will maintain rich moisture across
parts of the Plains and especially the Midwest/Southeast. With
large-scale features generally being weak, convective development
will largely be reliant on terrain features, subtle shortwave
troughs, or surface boundaries. With this pattern, at least low
severe potential will exist within the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest into next weekend. Predictability will remain low,
however, as large-scale features will be weaker and the influence of
prior convection will increase with each successive day.

..Wendt.. 06/27/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 280848
SWOD48
SPC AC 280846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Relatively little change is expected in the upper-level pattern from
mid to late this week. A broad trough in the West will bring
southwesterly flow across the Rockies and parts of the Plains. In
the East, an upper ridge will persist. During the weekend, models
are in general agreement that the upper ridge will flatten and
broaden across the southern U.S. This pattern will favor the
maintenance of a very moist airmass within parts of the Plains into
the Midwest and Southeast. The lack of more notable mid-level and
surface features decrease predictability with regard to where severe
convection may occur. That being said, subtle surface
boundaries/shortwave troughs may promote convective development each
day within parts of the Plains/Midwest. Trends in model guidance
will continue to be monitored, but confidence remains low in placing
severe probabilities.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 290901
SWOD48
SPC AC 290859

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The broad trough in the West and ridge in the East will persist
through the remainder of the week. A moist airmass across much of
the CONUS east of the Rockies will support repeated days of
convective activity. Large-scale forcing will remain weak, but
shortwave troughs emanating from the western trough will promote
development within the Plains and the Upper Midwest where a stalled
surface boundary will be positioned. Both Thursday and Friday show
potential for MCS development from Nebraska into the Dakotas. Friday
will likely have a more prominent shortwave trough as a lifting
mechanism. Where this potential severe weather will be focused is
not certain given the expected convection that will occur each day
prior. For Saturday, some models show the shortwave trough moving
into the Upper Midwest where another round of convection may occur.
Severe probabilities are certainly possible in the coming days as
confidence continues to increase.

Another area to watch this week will be the Northeast. Here,
stronger northwesterly flow at mid levels will continue into part of
the weekend. Depending on how the shortwave trough evolves in the
Upper Midwest, this feature may eventually move into the Northeast
and promote thunderstorm development late this weekend into next
week. Predictability remains too low for highlights, however.

..Wendt.. 06/29/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 300840
SWOD48
SPC AC 300838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper-level flow is expected to become more zonal across the CONUS
this Friday. The upper ridge within the East will lose amplitude and
develop westward and amplify once again into early next week. The
exact structure of the upper ridge does vary within model guidance.
At the surface, a mostly stationary boundary will continue to be modified/reinforced by convection occurring along/near it on
preceding days. As the upper ridge builds in the West, this boundary
will likely get pushed farther south within the areas east of the
Mississippi by the developing surface high in the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes. Moisture will then be transported farther
north/west in the Plains/High Plains beginning sometime this
weekend. The general theme for the extended forecast will be where
subtle shortwaves/MCVs will propagate and spur convection along the
boundary.

For Friday, another MCS is possible along the surface boundary
similar to D3/Thursday. Uncertainty in how Thursday's convection
will impact the location of the boundary and most favorable
environment reduces confidence on where the greatest severe threat
will be. Into the weekend and early next week, some severe threat is
possible in parts of the eastern CONUS in association with MCV from
convection in the Plains/Midwest. Additional severe storms could
occur as northwesterly flow aloft develops in the High Plains. There
are still enough differences in the upper-level pattern between
medium range guidance that predictability of any higher threat
corridors is low.

..Wendt.. 06/30/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 010902
SWOD48
SPC AC 010900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Flow aloft will become more zonal by this weekend as the upper-level
ridge flattens and begins to shift/build westward. The strongest
mid-level winds will be present across the northern tier of the
CONUS. An upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes
will bring a belt of stronger mid-level winds across the Northeast.
Some southward movement of a surface boundary can be expected within
the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic this weekend into early
next week. At the same time, northwesterly flow aloft will develop
over the High Plains along with moisture pushing farther northwest
into the region.

Severe potential will largely be driven by mesoscale features such
as localized convergence along stalled/weak boundaries as well as
MCVs from prior convection. The airmass across much of the Plains
into the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will be quite unstable and
strong heating will occur underneath the increasingly muted upper
ridge. Subtle lift from shortwave troughs may promote greater
convective coverage in parts of the Mid-Atlantic early next week.
However, the stronger, but still modest, shear will be displaced
from the most buoyant airmass. Additional convection will be
possible along the surface boundary within the Midwest/Ohio Valley,
but shear will generally be weak. More organized convection may also
develop within the northwest flow pattern in the High Plains, but predictability remains low as to where this will eventually occur.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 020856
SWOD48
SPC AC 020855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Model trends have been for the upper ridge to amplify less in the
West than in previous cycles. This will allow southwesterly
mid-level winds to persist longer in the Intermountain region. In
the East, a shortwave trough will approach the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Sunday before cyclonic flow remains in the
regions through the middle of the following week. Upper ridging will
stay within the central CONUS before flattening as a couple of
shortwave troughs move over the northern tier states. Moderate to
strong buoyancy is expected to remain south a stalled surface
boundary in the Southeast. The cyclonic flow in the West will
eventually bring moisture farther northwest into the High Plains.
While predictability is generally low, at least localized severe
potential will exist near the surface boundaries and any MCVs that
may be present. High Plains thunderstorms are also possible. Where
greater shear/lift exists with the western shortwave troughs, severe
potential could increase.

...Mid-Atlantic...
With the approach of modest mid-level height falls on Sunday, storm
coverage will likely increase from Saturday both along the stalled
surface front and within the Blue Ridge. Given a similar environment
to Saturday, a 15% severe risk was added. Damaging wind gusts are
likely the primary hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 030904
SWOD48
SPC AC 030902

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0402 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance suggests that a modest mid-level ridge, along
an axis from the eastern Great Basin into the Upper Midwest by early
next week, may gradually become suppressed by a low-amplitude short
wave trough emerging from the Great Basin by the middle of next
week. It appears that this will occur as a much more substantive
trough and embedded low, within the stronger westerlies confined to
the higher latitudes, progress inland across British Columbia and
the Canadian Rockies. This could be accompanied by some potential
for organized severe thunderstorm development across parts of
eastern Montana into the Dakotas by next Tuesday and/or Wednesday,
but enough spread persists within latest model output to preclude 15
percent or greater severe probabilities at this time.

A preceding trough within the stronger westerlies is forecast to
slowly progress east of the Canadian Prairies through Hudson Bay,
Ontario, Quebec and the remainder of the eastern Canadian Provinces
by late next week. It is possible that a corridor of boundary-layer
moistening and destabilization ahead of an associated cold front
could support increasing risk for thunderstorms across parts of the
lower Great Lakes through New England by next Thursday into Friday.
However, the extent of this potential, and the degree to which it
could pose a risk for damaging wind gusts remains uncertain at this
time.

Otherwise, severe potential in lower-latitudes, if any, will likely
generally be associated with sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve
and of rather low predictability at this time range.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 040845
SWOD48
SPC AC 040843

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Based on the latest medium-range guidance, it appears that
considerable amplification within the flow across the mid- and
subtropical latitudes of the Pacific during this period may lead to
the evolution of an increasingly prominent high becoming centered
near or to the northeast of the Four Corners by early next weekend.
Surrounding ridging may encompass much of the Intermountain West
through Great Plains, as far north as the Canadian Prairies.

Associated monsoonal moisture return into parts of the Southwest may
be accompanied by increasing convective potential that could include
evolving clusters capable of producing strong to severe wind gusts.
However, much as will likely remain the case in preceding days
across and east of the Rockies, organized severe weather potential,
if any, will be strongly influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet
to evolve, and with low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 050852
SWOD48
SPC AC 050851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
In the wake of a short wave trough pivoting inland of the British
Columbia coast by mid week, medium-range guidance continues to
indicate the gradual development of large-scale ridging across the
much of the Intermountain West through Great Plains and Mississippi
Valley late this week through next weekend. It appears that a
center of seasonably high mid-level heights will evolve and develop northeastward, west through north of the Four Corners, into northern
Colorado by the end of the period. Prior to and as this occurs,
this may be preceded by the transition of a generally zonal to
broadly cyclonic regime across and east of the northern Great Plains
through northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, but embedded short
wave developments remain rather unclear.

Regardless, it still appears that substantive potential for
organized severe thunderstorm development, if any, will largely
remain influenced by sub-synoptic developments yet to evolve, and of particularly low predictability at this extended time frame.

..Kerr.. 07/05/2026

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ACUS48 KWNS 060902
SWOD48
SPC AC 060900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range model output continues to indicate the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid/upper high across the lower Colorado
Valley and Plateau late this week into next weekend, which may
continue expanding and encompassing a significant portion of the
interior U.S. by early next week. How far north and northeast this
builds remains unclear; however, a plume of very warm elevated
mixed layer air advecting on strengthening flow around the northern
through northeastern periphery of this anticyclonic regime will
contribute to an environment conditionally conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development.

It appears that this could focus anywhere from the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity through the Great Lakes into the
Northeast. By early next week (the Day 8-9 time frame), in
particular, at least some output suggests that a vigorous short wave
trough rounding the ridge may be accompanied by strong cyclogenesis,
which could promote widespread strong to severe thunderstorm
development across parts of New England into northern Mid Atlantic.
Given the uncertainties associated with the extended time frame and
model spread/discrepancies, severe weather probabilities remain less
than 15 percent for this period, but it is possible that this could
change sometime in later outlook updates for this period.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

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