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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1357

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 27 23:19:10 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 272319
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 272318=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-280015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1357
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0618 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

    Areas affected...portions of western Kentucky

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403...

    Valid 272318Z - 280015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A corridor of locally greater severe potential may exist
    across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 403 along remnant
    outflow boundary.

    DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis places a remnant outflow
    boundary from just south of Paducah, Kentucky, into northern
    Tennessee. Convection along this boundary in the vicinity of PAH has
    exhibited marginal supercell structures with weak rotation
    signatures over the past 1-2 hours. A moist and unstable air mass
    south of the remnant boundary aided by 40-50 kts of mid-level flow
    (sampled by regional VWPs) and effective shear of around 30 kts
    along the southern flank of two mid-level MCVs will continue to
    support marginal supercell structures through this evening, with the
    latest high-res guidance suggesting that this convection may
    continue to progress along this boundary. In this scenario, a
    corridor of locally greater severe potential may develop, with the
    potential for water-loaded downbursts and damaging wind gusts. A
    brief tornado or two is also possible given enhanced low-level shear
    along this boundary (~100 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH sampled downstream of
    the aforementioned convection by the HPX/OHX VWPs).

    ..Chalmers.. 06/27/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wYl3gGGaYNnG8gcgicSzWTFrOCwkNd8EwEGig7_jCSapgZCwzOoZa7rYAwIske9ickp2QpcR= YAezCdM9atgUZbtMTM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37338864 37338839 37268771 37178725 37018696 36828683
    36658693 36628717 36678766 36828834 36978866 37118878
    37338864=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)