ACUS11 KWNS 280126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 280125=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-280330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1360
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0825 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Areas affected...parts of western into central North Dakota and
adjacent portions of South Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

Valid 280125Z - 280330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for strong to severe wind gusts and a few
tornadoes appears to be increasing with an organizing cluster of
storms, particularly across northwestern into portions of central
North Dakota through 9-11 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Considerable upscale convective growth has occurred the
past few hours, focused within the lee surface trough near and east
of the Montana/Dakotas state border vicinity. A notable 2-hour
surface pressure fall/rise couplet has become evident in 01Z surface observations, along and just ahead of strengthening outflow.=20
Activity is embedded within deep-layer southerly mean flow on the
order of 30 kt, with strengthening easterly to northeasterly
near-surface inflow of moist air characterized by moderate CAPE
likely to support further intensification of convection through
02-03Z. It appears that a meso-beta scale lower/mid-tropospheric
cyclonic vortex could form near/south of the Williston vicinity,
accompanied by strengthening southwesterly rear-inflow, and
increasing potential for severe wind gusts. A few evolving
meso-gamma scale vortices may be accompanied by locally more
damaging gusts and/or tornadoes.

..Kerr.. 06/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8wsCBmz1tWfwSCCmYNOXH9lRZtDq-SG1XPq1zlsQdyZk9IJMN0w-TQtSFsJ7RJdrl7owGfVO-= _mmbeFj5_E_ZKDkqrI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...

LAT...LON 49250451 48870148 47030057 45570087 45230197 47060274
47500330 47580372 48480472 49250451=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)