ACUS11 KWNS 290321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290321=20
NDZ000-290515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1371
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1021 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Areas affected...parts of north central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290321Z - 290515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorm activity may continue to pose
a risk for severe hail, and perhaps a strong downburst before
weakening, while overspreading the region through Midnight-2 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...While the warmest elevated mixed-layer air has been
suppressed a bit farther southeastward through the middle Missouri
Valley, Rapid Refresh output suggests that temperatures around the
700 mb level remain as warm as 10+ C along a corridor northeast of
the Black Hills through northeastern North Dakota. Associated
inhibition, coupled with the onset of boundary-layer cooling, has
contributed to rapid dissipation of earlier isolated storms within
this regime.

However, isolated strong thunderstorm development has persisted, and
even increased and intensified a bit, within the mid-level thermal
gradient to the northwest of the stronger capping. This appears=20
aided by forcing associated with weak warm advection accompanying a
subtle wave, which is forecast to continue slowly migrating toward
the international border area to the northwest of Devils Lake
through 05-07Z. As it does, the risk for severe hail may persist at
least a couple more hours. Thermodynamic dynamic profiles
characterized by steep mid-level lapse rates may also support a
strong downburst, before activity weakens and/or spreads across the international border.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8NkUGIe5aIrpYfHWEGrn2dLnBHaYQFHcmP-7naTYt3cIQJOvhd90gnUTGHTIve6juEAYbnN4Y= 6J4-4BxdliURhvocaM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 48860017 48649914 47660040 47440095 47600142 48860017=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)