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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1372

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 29 04:43:50 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 290443
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 290443=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-290645-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1372
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1143 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

    Areas affected...parts of northwestern Nebraska into central South
    Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412...

    Valid 290443Z - 290645Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 412
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development probably will continue
    to grow upscale and begin to become better organized with increasing
    potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts, in addition to
    large hail, through 1-3 AM CDT.

    DISCUSSION...Strongest forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is still developing across the
    Nebraska Panhandle into areas of South Dakota to the southeast of
    the Black Hills. However, this is forecast to begin shifting north-northeastward, across and north of the western Nebraska and
    South Dakota state border area through 06-08Z. As it does, ongoing
    convective development is likely to continue to to increase and
    organize, particularly as convective outflow consolidates and
    propagates northeastward, within 30-40 southerly deep-layer mean
    flow. As it does, strengthening north-northeasterly updraft inflow
    emanating from a moist unstable boundary-layer increasingly
    characterized by lower 70s F dew points may begin to support notable
    further intensification with increasing potential for strong to
    severe wind gusts, in addition to large hail.

    ..Kerr.. 06/29/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6kOc3N4_SozB3VgJsYQd3tJOPXOosRMg-iBKrClOLZ27r-JdeUVj-kfiJWw-dqxz4PaTM-UQg= sBOuf8Fkin4DGRsxw8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43610236 44430171 44000003 42600137 42120256 42390353
    43610236=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)