ACUS11 KWNS 290631
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290630=20
WIZ000-MIZ000-MNZ000-290900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1373
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...northeast Minnesota into northern Wisconsin and
western Upper Michigan

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 290630Z - 290900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage tonight, and isolated
instances of marginal hail cannot be ruled out.

DISCUSSION...A warm front extends across central MN and WI, with 70s
F dewpoints to the south. Meanwhile, VWPs show 925-850 mb winds out
of the south to southwest near 30 kt.=20

Although temperatures aloft are warming ahead of the upper trough,
the high precipitable water air mass is still yielding MUCAPE of
3000-4000 J/kg near and south of the warm front. The 04Z GRB
sounding is on the dry side of the instability gradient, just east
of the elevated high theta-e air mass, but indicates veering winds
with height and overall high precipitable water content.=20

Persistent southwest winds just off the surface should continue
bring strong elevated instability across the region tonight, and,
aid lift. Some of the stronger storm cores may be capable of
marginally severe hail, as effective deep-layer shear averages near
50 kt and aids cellular storm mode.

..Jewell/Smith.. 06/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!89kbsOFkl9mKZwmHR33FndrmrK7Oa1NeihMmwT4fcDjRl-3Xjon1VrV5Nk2ge0rrXRDn9t_OQ= Axm1sUoIa5MTZ5ucos$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 46579342 46769280 46839211 46829076 46158880 45618810
44918802 44618844 45208988 45489125 45589245 45629372
45919401 46269394 46579342=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)