ACUS11 KWNS 290946
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290946=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-291145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1375
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...from central South Dakota into southeast North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 290946Z - 291145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds over 80 mph and wind-driven
hail will spread northeastward out of central South Dakota into part
of northeast South Dakota and southeast North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...A severe cluster of storms over south-central SD has
produced several gusts over 80 mph along with hail over 2.00"
diameter. This system is expected to remain severe as it moves
northeastward this morning. The anchor supercell on the southern end
was previously moving almost due east, but recent radar trends
suggest the system is finally moving more northeastward, similar to
CAM guidance.

The moist and unstable air mass, lift within the theta-e advection
zone, and 50-60 kt deep-layer shear suggest the complex will remain
severe for several more hours.

..Jewell.. 06/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9c1cuUERp2ROiAAWTm5sTtLs0qkXyJWN8w53n1lNIpaK8BIH57ZP12YPDaiTTNC58_0jllA9j= IE75xTzm4nOM0Orasw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 43310069 43740059 44300075 46489882 46669790 46669721
46329687 45669687 44919712 44019835 43609911 43370003
43310069=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)