ACUS11 KWNS 291407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291406=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-291600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southeast North
Dakota...and West-central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413...

Valid 291406Z - 291600Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 413
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds with gusts of 60-80 mph,
large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes is expected to
continue with ongoing bow echo.

DISCUSSION...As of 14Z, the KABR radar indicated a compact but
intense bow echo over Marshall, Day, and Roberts Counties in
northeast SD, moving northeast at 45 kt. A couple of tornadoes have
recently been reported with meso-vortices forming near the apex of
the bow. Mesoanalysis places the convective system very near a warm
front lifting north through the region, where a corridor of enhanced
low-level shear likely resides. Latest short-term model guidance
suggests that the bow echo will continue northeast into
west-central/northwest MN this morning with extrapolation of the
current motion taking it to the edge of Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#413 between 1530 and 16Z (10:30-11:00 AM CDT).

Latest mesoanalysis indicates a reservoir of moderate to strong
instability (MLCAPE of 2000-4000 J/kg) in the vicinity of and
immediately downstream of the bow echo, which will continue to fuel
vigorous up/downdrafts with an attendant threat for severe wind
gusts in the 60-80 mph range and large hail up to golf-ball size.
Tornado potential will be contingent on the warm front lifting north
at a similar speed of the bow echo, allowing it to reside within a
zone of stronger low-level shear.

..Mead.. 06/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-BAWemxhqFf-aeRUJv2QcgY4GlzqYZxbPsXfwRGn7ZaimjQ2cY6rljqrzYqeRHbGsMEwI5-j4= Gguw66dCVzTOyW7kmw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45479832 46339775 47069732 47339659 47169571 46809552
46199562 45499661 45179727 45119760 45109811 45479832=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)