ACUS11 KWNS 291914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 291914=20
MNZ000-WIZ000-292115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1382
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Minnesota...including the Arrowhead

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414...

Valid 291914Z - 292115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 414
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and large hail is expected
to continue across remaining valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch #414. The greatest potential for a tornado or two exists with
a supercell on the southern end of the bowing MCS in the vicinity of
the warm front.

DISCUSSION...As of 19Z, KDLH radar data indicated a well-defined bow
echo across St. Louis County with a trailing supercell over Aitkin
County. Movement of the bow echo was to the northeast at 50 kt.
Sporadic wind damage reports and marginally severe wind gusts have
occurred over the past hour, despite earlier volumetric radar data
sampling an 80+ kt rear-inflow jet (RIJ). Relatively cool and stable near-ground conditions are likely inhibiting the majority of
higher-momentum flow in the RIJ from reaching the surface, except
where locally intense downbursts are able to penetrate the stable
layer. Expect that trend to continue with the bow echo as the
low-level stability will likely be maintained by onshore flow from
off Lake Superior.

Meanwhile, the supercell over Aitkin County recently produced hail
up to 1.5 inches, and its likely large hail potential will continue
with that storm as it continues east along the immediate cool side
of the warm front. That threat is expected to spread east into far
northwest WI, where the watch has been locally extended. In addition
to the hail threat, the potential exists for a tornado or two owing
to the proximity of the warm front where low-level shear is
maximized. That threat is conditional on the supercell being firmly
rooted with the boundary layer.

..Mead.. 06/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5_dW9dCxBYCKZ2jQKAGOhfIgexJh1uZIX6iJD-bJVzucvi69FBTLA8ovFm1JrclRl_soS1mMi= eqX0lPKmPcseQL-KVc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...

LAT...LON 46269199 46229268 46279356 46999399 47669391 48209324
48259169 48078990 47758969 46799063 46369116 46269199=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)