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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1384

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 29 20:38:27 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 292038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292037=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-292230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1384
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

    Areas affected...portions of western texas and far southeastern New
    Mexico

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 292037Z - 292230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few severe gusts are possible across portions of western
    Texas and far southeastern New Mexico this afternoon and evening. A
    watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along the terrain of west
    Texas, and cumulus is deepening along a diffuse dryline across
    portions of far southeastern new Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
    These storms are well south of the main mid-level jet axis, and the
    18Z MAF RAOB showed relatively modest flow throughout the column. A
    relatively dry boundary layer with steep lapse rates is also
    apparent in short-term RAP forecast profiles, and this may provide a
    risk for severe gusts across portions of west Texas and far
    southeastern New Mexico. With the relatively weak deep-layer shear,
    some clustering of storms may occur, and this would increase the
    risk of severe gusts. However, this activity is still expected to
    remain sparse in coverage, and therefore, a watch is not anticipated
    at this time.

    ..Supinie/Guyer.. 06/29/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5qgdRDBR0a7et2G5EwmpZ6RGDePq4uWmPjXT7FuuyZC2iMe4B_q3U6ixiO38Zv3JBgjVxhMhs= XnJbgIFbnWsxyEhZzQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 32260378 34050286 35820194 36150152 36150095 36010065
    35430052 34310079 31660187 30110217 29790260 29460326
    29600403 30080445 32260378=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)