1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1386

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 29 23:24:59 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 292324
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292324=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-300100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1386
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0624 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

    Areas affected...portions of central/southern Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 292324Z - 300100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is expected over
    the next 1-2 hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts towering
    cumulus developing along a surface confluence zone in far northern
    Kansas. The glancing influence of a passing mid-level shortwave
    trough to the northwest and a strengthening southerly low-level jet
    are expected to continue to promote the erosion of convective
    inhibition (sampled by the 18z LBF observed sounding) and eventual
    convective initiation over the next 1-2 hours.=20

    Strong buoyancy and effective shear will promote supercells as the
    initial storm mode, with large to very large hail as the primary
    threat given steep mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs.
    With time, the gradual coalescence of cold pools should favor
    upscale growth, with an accompanying increase in the threat for
    severe wind gusts. While convection is expected to remain largely
    elevated owing to low-level stabilization with time, a tornado or
    two may also be possible where storms can remain/become
    surface-based. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed within the
    next hour to cover these threats.

    ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/29/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60WRkIjje1WZYqfqHkzgB_jIaIPThjlG2k6DZDPxskcb-PMjUrsYKcBLGZiWjFI0--Kx3sv8Z= Yk31feAGHjaL9XWke4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

    LAT...LON 41779734 41209740 40849759 40379803 39989873 39889962
    40180005 40590014 41130005 41489983 41999922 42319869
    42439808 42139762 41779734=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)