ACUS11 KWNS 300025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300025=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-300230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1388
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Areas affected...parts of east central North Dakota...northwest
through central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 300025Z - 300230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Developing supercells posing a risk for large hail and a
couple strong tornadoes may increase through 9-11 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Very moist boundary-layer air (including mid 70s F
surface dew points) advecting into the vicinity of a deep surface
low centered northeast of Bismarck is contributing to extreme
potential instability beneath steep-lapse rates associated with a
plume of very warm elevated mixed layer air. However, a combination
of subsidence aloft and inhibition associated with the elevated
mixed-layer has slowed convective development to this point.=20=20

A recent increase in deepening convective development is finally
underway near the leading edge of gradual weak cooling from the west
in the 700-500 mb layer, as well as along a retreating downstream
remnant outflow boundary/developing warm front, roughly centered
northeast of Alexandria MN. Particularly along the warm front,
where a 40+ kt southerly 850 mb jet is contributing to sizable
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, the environment may become
increasingly conducive to supercells posing a risk for tornadoes.=20
The southern fringe of modest mid-level height falls, associated
with a northeastward pivoting upstream short wave trough, may not
begin impacting the area until 02-04Z, but it appears this threat
could commence a bit earlier.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!83HQvmxNQfl57N4x7V32I6yc24jFkPdEgSINGU8wxAZlmv4hFIf4VJbDes_9_U5RB6BiJjObZ= PMZ7Uf_pDpg4N0Tos0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON 47409651 47589574 47199473 46969421 46179337 45709398
45739472 45999554 46199593 46349642 46569674 47129691
47409651=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)