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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1392

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 30 06:42:32 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 300642
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300642=20
    MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-300815-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1392
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0142 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

    Areas affected...Northeast NE...southeast SD...northwest
    IA...southwest MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420...

    Valid 300642Z - 300815Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 420
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A storm cluster with gusts of near/above 75 mph may
    develop overnight. Isolated hail also remains possible. Eventual
    downstream watch issuance may be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A small supercell cluster has recently shown some signs
    of upscale growth and northeastward acceleration across far
    northeast NE into southeast SD. This cluster may continue to move
    northeast overnight, along a pronounced moisture and buoyancy
    gradient that extends into south-central MN. Strong to extreme
    buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear along/south of this boundary
    will continue to support organized convection through the overnight
    hours.=20

    The steep lapse rate and strong buoyancy environment is
    conditionally favorable for significant severe gusts (potentially
    75-85 mph), though whether the ongoing cluster becomes sufficiently
    organized for more widespread gusts of this caliber remains
    uncertain. The strongest embedded cells will also remain capable of
    producing isolated large hail.=20

    Depending on the extent of organized upscale growth over the next
    1-2 hours, downstream watch issuance may eventually be needed into
    parts of south-central MN and north-central IA.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 06/30/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!67CT4VS-XOMWfQ4nUMEY-w0q4g-fQtYA08q4iSqzoo8MrtnUNl2K26-UkmpFeC1vmyN3iFt7p= D7vyfZIRXmK-chr3Aw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

    LAT...LON 42119637 42299686 42609707 43049667 43429621 43939563
    44159479 44219429 44149394 43769391 43539421 43259453
    42649538 42279598 42119637=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)