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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1393

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 30 09:05:04 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 300904
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 300904=20
    MNZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-301030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1393
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0404 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

    Areas affected...Southern MN into northern IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

    Valid 300904Z - 301030Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
    continues.

    SUMMARY...At least localized severe gusts remain possible through
    dawn.

    DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a storm cluster over
    south-central MN has recently weakened, with CINH tending to weaken
    storms along the southern part of the cluster, and more stable
    conditions to the north of a frontal boundary constraining
    development within the northern part of the cluster. However, strong
    to severe gusts continue to be observed, most recently a 52 kt gust
    at KJYG in Watonwan County, MN.=20

    Downstream of this cluster, a more favorable environment remains in
    place into southeast MN and southwest WI, with MUCAPE of near/above
    4000 J/kg and weaker CINH per recent objective mesoanalyses. Even if
    the ongoing cluster continues to weaken, some redevelopment and
    possible reorganization cannot be ruled out as the primary gust
    front/cold pool move into this environment. Some intensification of
    trailing convection across northwest IA also remains possible as it
    moves east-northeastward through the early morning.

    ..Dean.. 06/30/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6npysZ2HCR8NLAbgmJUAMjqUDEmb-7Tyc3dh0RP2aPvz5lXA17AwIE21p96Lg7RH6lTYn5_4T= TRa8DEN6RF1vOHbmGc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 44209496 44209496 44859439 45089397 45109341 44989286
    44919259 44659227 44129194 43599197 43359231 43309288
    43179465 43509497 43809498 43999496 44209496=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)