ACUS11 KWNS 301254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301254=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-301430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...Parts of southeast MN into western/central WI

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421...

Valid 301254Z - 301430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 421
continues.

SUMMARY...Some severe threat may continue into mid morning.

DISCUSSION...An earlier storm cluster that produced severe wind
gusts across southwest MN has mostly dissipated, though a remnant
wake low continues to produce gusty winds this morning. Farther
east, some uptick in storm coverage and intensity has been noted
near/north of La Crosse, WI. Large buoyancy (MUCAPE of 2500-4000
J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to conditionally
support organized convection, and generally elevated convection may
continue to pose a threat of isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts
in the short term.=20

Storm evolution later this morning remains uncertain. A convectively
augmented midlevel shortwave trough may help to sustain convection
within the favorable environment, and maintain a severe threat.
However, the threat may remain isolated until renewed diurnal
development occurs later today. As a result, the need for downstream
watch issuance in the short term is uncertain, but trends will be
monitored for any uptick in storm coverage and organization through
the morning.

..Dean/Smith.. 06/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8XUxptmTctp861p5BhdwOFjAIMQHpqCid1rNBVpwO35xqNxmlqaLzdcI6ExbIkOFpdNW5Zc-R= UaYDMNuEpDZJz62gto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43489102 43929277 44529240 45309161 45499104 45589063
45499019 45268983 44978967 44608966 44048980 43609003
43489102=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)