ACUS11 KWNS 301624
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301623=20
NYZ000-301830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...Central New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 301623Z - 301830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential is expected to increase this
afternoon with gusts of 60-70 mph possible. Isolated occurrences of
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two may also occur.

DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data from KTYX indicate a bow echo
with a well-defined rear-inflow jet moving southeast at around 50
kt. Extrapolation of current motion takes the bow echo to the
vicinity of Watertown, NY, between 1:00-1:30 PM EDT. Visible
satellite imagery shows considerable mid/upper-level cloudiness and
some elevated convection ahead of the MCS across the Tug Hill
region; however, stronger heating is occurring across the Finger
Lakes and far western NY with latest objective analysis indicating
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Persistent westerly low-level flow will
advect that more unstable air mass into the region ahead of the MCS.

The current KTYX VWP indicates a vertically wind profile with 40-50
kt of northwesterly flow above 4-5 km, yielding sufficient vertical
shear for the continuation of the bow echo into central NY this
afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with gusts of
60-70 mph possible. Some large hail is possible along the western
flank of the system, which will be exposed to an EML plume=20
spreading into the region from the upper Great Lakes. Additionally,
the presence of modest low-level shear may support the potential for
a brief tornado or two in association with embedded mesovortices.

..Mead/Guyer.. 06/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_HakqFVsdfHdfrqDRb-BSxHnVprJZzkvIw29idRcA_IKv41CyMD_e1d3hOTarfhcfDJKOxsdW= 2DA3YLmyQ_RXqc82G4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42927781 43747762 44377698 44357626 43407514 42637468
42157500 42207590 42277729 42927781=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)