ACUS11 KWNS 301849
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301848=20
NYZ000-302045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1398
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...Central New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...

Valid 301848Z - 302045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for mainly damaging winds with gusts up to
60-70 mph will continue across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Recent trends in IR and radar data indicate a temporary
weakening of a long-lived bow echo present across portions of
Herkimer, Lewis, and Oneida Counties as of 1840z. However, close
inspection of the radar data suggests that the cold pool and
low-level shear remain in balance, and it is quite possible the
system will re-intensify over the next hour our two as the western
flank of the system encounters an increasingly unstable air mass.
The KTYX VWP sampled the rear-inflow jet of the bow echo with 50 kt
winds observed as low as 1 km AGL. Steepening low-level lapse rates
within the inflow region of the bow echo may allow for the more
efficient downward transfer of the stronger winds aloft as the
system begins to interact with the more unstable environment.

More recent, discrete storm development has occurred to the
southwest of the bow echo in Wayne County, NY within the axis of
stronger instability. Sufficient vertical shear exists in that area
to support some storm organization, including supercell structures
with an associated risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4BFGUnH5Rhhdl4kMAiUrqtLgWmbtufA8Crjhrbj-t42pz-HXZq2m6NBnvTDdRA3_-KSP6DrCm= oyOLJ93m-bezWH2NY0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON 42647654 42947706 43377716 44247592 44437523 43967442
43187354 42767332 42347368 42307457 42287522 42287565
42647654=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)