ACUS11 KWNS 301944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301943=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-302145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1399
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0243 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...northeast New Mexico...southeast
Colorado...southwest Kansas...the western Oklahoma Panhandle...and
far northwest Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 301943Z - 302145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will increase this
afternoon/evening across portions of the southern High Plains.

DISCUSSION...A storm has developed in Union County, New Mexico this
afternoon where 50s dewpoints have backed up into the higher
terrain. Visible satellite imagery also suggests additional
development may occur north of this storm near the Raton Mesa. SPC
mesoanalysis shows around 35 to 40 knots of effective shear across
the area. The PUX VWP is sampling around 40 to 45 knots at 4-5km
which would support the 35 to 40 knot shear values farther
southeast. This shear, combined with weak to moderate instability
will support the potential for supercell structures and some hail
threat. Through time, expect storms to grow upscale as they move
east into a more unstable airmass with an increasing severe wind
threat into the evening.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4VUxKVuGKOv7srzZK-bbpZ6vPcH4D78HHCuJW5yPrEAlycaqyBBxX0LssiiO07Dz4CWf4ge6s= DfhA1rvcH0bRPfTS7U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36150353 36710369 36940373 37910305 38590251 38670171
38400140 37610143 36490221 36130297 36150353=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)