ACUS11 KWNS 302033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302032=20
CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-302230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1401
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0332 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...South-central and Southeast New York into Western Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423...

Valid 302032Z - 302230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 423
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds and large hail continues
across southern parts of the watch area. That threat may develop
south of the current watch area by 22Z, requiring either an areal
extension of the existing watch or a new downstream watch.

DISCUSSION...Renewed thunderstorm development has recently occurred
along the legacy cold pool across portions of Saratoga, Schenectady,
and Montgomery Counties with more discrete storms persisting into
Otsego County as of 20:20Z. A slight increase in inbound base
velocities has been noted by the KENX radar, and given these trends,
damaging wind potential may increase over the next hour with the re-strengthening bowing system.

Assuming that scenario unfolds, the severe weather threat would
potentially move out of the watch area by 22Z, requiring either a
watch extension or new watch.

..Mead.. 06/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7dQSIE8mNa_NRpg8biLeJY71e-mpKToCRAGES9NQOijwDCWuxemNdV73Di-xFT6dnwEBlIV2l= 2YSUDfdkHvDuBS_n8o$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON 42647686 42877689 43257484 43297397 42847337 41907311
41627378 41637506 41757578 42197661 42647686=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)