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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 30 22:34:40 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 302234
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 302233=20
    MIZ000-WIZ000-010000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1403
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0533 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

    Areas affected...portions of eastern Wisconsin and the southern
    Upper Peninsula of Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424...

    Valid 302233Z - 010000Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Potential for primarily damaging wind gusts and large hail
    continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 424,
    including eastern Wisconsin and southern portions of the Michigan
    Upper Peninsula.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered convection has developed
    along a weak surface boundary across portions of central/eastern
    Wisconsin over the past 1-2 hours and has produced isolated reports
    of small hail and damaging wind gusts. While effective shear remains
    generally modest (25-35 kts) and low-to-mid level temperatures
    remain relatively warm across the region, strong to extreme buoyancy
    (4000-5000 J/kg per latest objective analysis) is expected to
    continue to support strong to severe thunderstorms across this
    region for another several hours. In the near-term, convection may
    tend to remain discrete/semi-discrete with a greater threat for
    large hail owing to modestly steep mid-level lapse rates (7-7.5
    C/km). Some consolidation of cold pools over the next 1-2 hours may
    then foster upscale growth and a transition towards damaging wind
    gusts as the primary threat.

    ..Chalmers.. 06/30/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xjXBURKlfvrAX4cpxpD7snKD-tPQFSnm9IzylqiaE5e5TteOhQWTUvWfYS-pS8fmVC7UMwji= m0XNjDvT1JcqDvYP-E$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...

    LAT...LON 44538724 44338748 44218787 44218831 44338865 44488882
    44698893 44868886 45268861 45648833 45948798 46028756
    45898704 45528688 45108695 44768706 44538724=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)