ACUS11 KWNS 302335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302335=20
MIZ000-010100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Michigan Upper Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 302335Z - 010100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell that has recently developed across
the central portions of the Michigan Upper Peninsula will pose a
risk for all severe hazards.

DISCUSSION...An isolated, splitting supercell has recently developed
in Delta County, Michigan. While the left split will quickly move
into a less favorable air mass overlying Lake Superior, a narrow
corridor of severe potential will likely exist with the right split
across downstream portions of the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Large
hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with this storm over
the next 1-2 hours, along with the potential for an isolated tornado
given enhanced 0-500 m SRH (approximately 100 m2/s2 per latest
objective analysis). Cooler temperatures and increased capping
farther east should tend to limit the longevity of this threat.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 06/30/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PMEq06cUirKLUQNOySgq5VsUVPtqKfL42wmRUL7rB3f_Wm9qFNvRVBdOlVW8HGGPei1klFdd= fS4fhX7PbFrWHRDZJc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...

LAT...LON 46408696 46538675 46568632 46488573 46308557 46098559
45898576 45828632 45928694 46128709 46278707 46408696=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)