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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1407

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 1 01:01:10 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 010101
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 010100=20
    MIZ000-010300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1407
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

    Areas affected...portions of western Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 010100Z - 010300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail
    may develop across portions of western Michigan over the next 1-2
    hours. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A convective cluster that developed across portions of central/eastern Wisconsin earlier this afternoon has evolved
    eastward and is currently noted over Lake Michigan. While radar
    imagery from KGRB indicates that the outflow from this complex has
    largely outrun the main convective cores, a modest strengthening of
    the nocturnal low-level jet may help to sustained this convection
    (and isolated thunderstorms developing farther to the east) for at
    least another couple of hours. While increasing low-level
    inhibition, neutral mid-level heights, and marginal effective shear
    (generally 25-35 kts) should largely limit the overall severe
    threat, strong buoyancy (MLCAPE 3000-3500 J/kg) and marginal
    convective organization may continue to promote some potential for
    isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail as this convection moves
    eastward into western Michigan. Watch issuance is unlikely at this
    time owing to the expectation for the magnitude of the severe risk
    to remain limited.

    ..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/01/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8U7_6BIKtCZ3XsWdhVuHOh0t_ry97TPl-gFCuGunMFm8wIWqtzEwibnWzFjGfZCZLDFrHb0MB= DIeq67JdLRYGaMrr-c$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 44768634 44758605 44558559 44248539 44028542 43788558
    43608585 43478625 43418652 43638661 43848665 44098663
    44398651 44768634=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)