ACUS11 KWNS 010628
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010628=20
IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-010800-

Mesoscale Discussion 1411
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Parts of north-central NE into southeast SD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426...427...

Valid 010628Z - 010800Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426, 427
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for 60-80 mph gusts and possibly a brief tornado
will spread northeastward through the early overnight hours.
Isolated hail is also possible.

DISCUSSION...A compact but intense storm cluster is moving across
parts of the Nebraska Sand Hills early this morning. This cluster
has a history of producing measured severe gusts, including 76 mph
at KTIF. In the short term, this cluster should continue to move
northeastward along and just north of a warm front, where a corridor
of 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE (and similar magnitudes of MUCAPE north
of the front) will gradually shift northward in advance of this
cluster. The pre-storm VWP from KLNX depicted substantial veering of
winds with height and 40+ kt of effective shear, which will continue
to support embedded mesocyclones and possibly a brief tornado with
this cluster through the early morning. Otherwise, gusts of 60-80
mph will remain possible from north-central NE into extreme
southeast SD.=20

Longevity of the ongoing cluster remains somewhat uncertain, due to
the influence of decayed convection and attendant pocket of relative dryness/stability that is moving northward across south-central NE.
However, a favorable environment is expected to remain in place
through at least a narrow corridor into a larger portion of
southeast SD overnight, which will support a continued threat of
severe gusts. Storms developing within a warm-advection regime ahead
of the primary cluster may also pose an isolated hail threat.

..Dean.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!54qLUEYrGUCBCshG1nRJXLTf_EDxI1dNfzHZKzwqDcQy4yU2AtJVGe06sItZ58f9KtV-0jqk_= ihwXq727Jowdtqxew0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42239803 41999911 41920006 42210016 42610019 43079996
43599892 43819810 43889724 43789679 43589661 43349645
42909655 42689659 42499694 42339749 42239803=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)