ACUS11 KWNS 010829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010829=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-011000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Eastern SD into southern MN and northwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427...

Valid 010829Z - 011000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 427
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging-wind threat will spread east-northeast through
the early morning. Downstream watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A vigorous storm cluster and attendant MCV continues to
produce strong to severe gusts across southeast SD early this
morning. To the east of the primary cluster, convection within a
warm-advection regime has also produced sporadic severe gusts as it
spreads northward from northwest IA into far southeast SD/southwest
MN.=20

With moderate deep-layer shear in place, a narrow zone with MLCAPE
of 2000-3000 J/kg will continue to support organized storm potential
near/north of a warm front through dawn. However, dry/stable
conditions associated with decayed convection continues to move
northeast across eastern NE, which may result in an increasingly
narrow zone where the environment remains favorable for severe
storms later this morning. As a result, the longevity of organized damaging-wind potential is uncertain as convection spreads
east-northeastward. Downstream watch issuance is possible, depending
on short-term trends regarding storm organization as convection
approaches the eastern extent of WW 427.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7BAI72kDJgkez3Xz85dCUU9FK8T7tNX3_1nrVbfAQlr3Iz_3wgmGG4006Q3M0j2V4JFqES_4s= mamGSWvcG0-DPP4T1Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON 43989909 44879770 45209498 45119416 44929353 44709301
44579291 44399275 43969280 43379403 43039532 42939629
42839708 42809748 42899781 43359799 43499839 43989909=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)