1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1413

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 1 11:59:47 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 011159
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011159=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-011430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1413
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0659 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

    Areas affected...Southeast MN and extreme northeast IA into
    central/southern WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011159Z - 011430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible through the
    morning.

    DISCUSSION...At 1155 UTC, a small, forward-propagating storm cluster
    is moving across central WI. This cluster is moving through an axis
    of rich boundary-layer moisture, with mid 70s F dewpoints supporting
    MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg, per recent objective mesoanalyses.
    30-40 kt is sufficient for continued storm organization, and this
    cluster will continue to pose a short-term threat of at least
    locally damaging wind. Early visible imagery depicts relatively
    clear skies and some potential for diurnal heating across eastern WI
    in advance of this cluster. As a result, this cluster may persist
    through the morning and eventually approach Lake Michigan, though
    its longevity remains somewhat uncertain due to generally modest
    large-scale ascent.=20

    Farther west, extensive convection is ongoing within a
    warm-advection regime across southern MN. Occasionally organized
    storms may continue to develop within this regime, and pose a
    short-term threat for isolated hail and damaging wind. Farther west,
    multiple MCVs are noted from northern NE into northeast SD.
    Increasing flow in the 700-500 mb layer (as depicted in short-term
    guidance) associated with these MCVs may allow for some uptick in
    storm organization and longevity later this morning, near and just
    north of an outflow-influenced front draped from southern MN into
    central WI.=20

    While timing of a more substantial severe threat remains uncertain,
    watch issuance is possible later this morning if trends support an
    increasing coverage and duration of organized storms.

    ..Dean/Smith.. 07/01/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_fu0QPJI3-zVB_XjqfhTf8SMZsQYWsHdk22iiAbBhIyBRi_bwcG7u6wMDqGyO5mUD4X7HPHy-= rhAu-f0oL1OsncSMU8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43809382 44369391 44809234 44969153 45008947 44898793
    44808737 44578735 44208748 43788768 43538780 43228790
    43139019 43169168 43349314 43439364 43809382=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)