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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1414

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 1 13:28:45 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 011328
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 011328=20
    MIZ000-011500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1414
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0828 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

    Areas affected...northern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 011328Z - 011500Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch may be needed across northern
    Michigan.

    DISCUSSION...A small but organized bowing segment has developed
    across central Wisconsin with a measured 53 knot wind gust at KOSH
    and several reports of wind damage across the area. This storm will
    likely undergo some weakening as it crosses the relatively cooler
    waters over Lake Michigan. However, an unstable and uncapped airmass
    is already present across northern Michigan with 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE
    and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s per APX 12Z RAOB. In addition,
    41 knots of effective shear will continue to support storm
    organization. Therefore, even if the bow weakens somewhat over the
    lake, reintensification across northern Michigan seems possible,
    especially given broken skies and additional surface heating this
    morning. Given the warm, moist airmass, severe/damaging winds would
    be the primary hazard. Trends will be monitored as this cluster
    crosses Lake Michigan and if it maintains strength or signs of
    imminent re-intensification across northern Michigan appear likely,
    a watch may be needed.

    ..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_pLz7seL4Cm_dwiL3moJ6MqNppOuc_TRsK5rWdd6n-myfwzi4TkgNLoPqw4yhz0YBCcndp5bd= EOrOvL1MwLbiTf0u9s$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...APX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 44028648 44438727 44988672 45698539 45848471 45738428
    45598395 45378358 44868336 44508418 44148612 44028648=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)