ACUS11 KWNS 011730
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011729=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-011930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Northern Georgia into Northern Alabama and southern
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011729Z - 011930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the coming hours.
Isolated to perhaps scattered strong/severe wind gusts are expected
as thunderstorm coverage increases within a very unstable
environment. Trends are being monitored for watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and regional web cams show steady
cumulus development and deepening across the southern Appalachians
in northern GA and southern TN with at least a couple of early
attempts at deep convection noted near Birmingham, AL. Any lingering
inhibition is quickly being removed as temperatures continue to warm
into the low to mid 90s, which will support an increasing
probability for sustained convective initiation within the next 1-2
hours as parcels approach their convective temperatures and
localized orographic ascent along terrain features increases.
Initially isolated convection will eventually grow upscale into
multi-cell clusters as development along outflow boundaries
increases given weak low-level flow within a very buoyant ambient
environment. With time, one or more loosely organized clusters
should emerge and propagate westward given the 25-30 knot 4-5 km
flow aloft sampled by regional VWPs.

The combination of seasonally rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in
the mid 70s and PWATs between 1.75 to 2 inches), steepening
low-level lapse rates, and very high buoyancy (MLCAPE upwards of
3500 J/kg) will promote the development of intense, but localized,
wet downbursts capable of producing strong/severe winds (most likely
45-60 mph). Downburst potential will gradually increase in tandem
with thunderstorm coverage and daytime heating through late
afternoon. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance
may be needed for portions of the region if thunderstorm coverage
becomes sufficiently widespread and/or one or more propagating
clusters emerges.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5LYEE4GkxOkEqgpWHhuriZeLx5dx_03oty2Rly1etGaD1p7dT9tGsNC_iAP7P0Pawg3Z0nqcn= TXamm7X3x_D3us7nU4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 33068510 32978535 32888589 32948663 33168729 33388765
33758789 34228799 34718791 34988778 35188741 35258703
35318412 35268365 35178344 34908326 34638327 34188373
33658422 33198483 33068510=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)