ACUS11 KWNS 011802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011801=20
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-012000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...The northern Appalachians and portions of the New
England region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 011801Z - 012000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Watch issuance may be needed as thunderstorms develop
within a very buoyant, but modestly sheared, environment across
parts of the northern Appalachians/New England region.

DISCUSSION...MLCIN has largely eroded across the greater PA/NY/NJ
region as temperatures climb into the upper 80s/low 90s within a
very moist air mass. Although MLCAPE has increased to around 3000
J/kg, only a couple of deeper convective showers and at least one
sustained thunderstorm are noted in GOES imagery within a broader
field of otherwise shallow cumulus. This suggests that regional
forcing for ascent remains fairly weak and localized for the time
being.

With the apex of the upper ridge pivoting over the region and
relatively weak low-level flow/confluence, forcing for ascent is
expected to remain somewhat nebulous through late afternoon.
However, continued daytime heating should allow near-surface parcels
to reach their convective temperatures. Localized ascent either
within subtle confluence axes and/or along terrain features should
promote additional isolated thunderstorm development by late mid to
late afternoon (most likely between 19-22 UTC based on recent CAM
solutions). Once this occurs, thunderstorm coverage may gradually
increase as new convection develops along outflow boundaries given
the uninhibited and strongly buoyant environment (though CAM
guidance continues to show high variance regarding thunderstorm
coverage though early evening). Regardless, 30-35 knot mid-level
flow may promote some convective organization and the emergence of
transient supercells and/or loosely organized clusters capable of
large hail and severe gusts. Watch issuance may be needed based on
when/where robust thunderstorm development occurs.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_B0Ob1AAW7TWEijpBCzUp9JZ5bhBlrqdWeFLwCUxUeZiBHKnKdKAtjwPm1eknxstRQXgDTpjB= 3cAuZFlfpAqY5vgCs8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 41397729 41697736 41977732 42177697 43487477 43577415
43457382 43197352 42897341 42387346 41627375 40837414
40327453 40207511 40227571 40417620 41397729=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)