ACUS11 KWNS 011933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011933=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-012130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Western Alabama to central and northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430...

Valid 011933Z - 012130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 430
continues.

SUMMARY...Watch issuance is likely across central to northern
Mississippi and thunderstorms spread west.

DISCUSSION...The potential for severe winds may be increasing across
northwest Alabama where two loosely organized convective clusters
will likely interact and grow upscale in the coming hours. Both of
these clusters are exhibiting continued re-development along their
western outflows per regional radar imagery, and are propagating
into an air mass that is very favorable for strong/severe downbursts (characterized by MLCAPE of around 4000 J/kg as well as steep
low-level lapse rates on the order of 8 to 8.5 C/km). Consequently,
the collision of these two clusters may result in a more focused
corridor of thunderstorm development with a more robust/consolidated
cold pool and a higher potential for damaging/severe winds. 25-30
knot mid-level flow continues to be sampled by regional VWPs, which
should help any resulting cluster propagate downstream into
northeast MS through late afternoon.=20

Concurrently, additional thunderstorm development is noted along the
MS/AL border with more shallow convective showers noted across
central MS within a similar thermodynamic environment. Continued
convective development is anticipated with this activity with an
attendant threat for sporadic downburst winds. Severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is expected in the coming hours across
central/northern MS to address these concerns.

..Moore.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_neb4EF0gJF4R84mwgI24kBgi6UfBdqbQzWaOjjk_IBtPK4EfWoEbZKbfok266Ga3rXkEQFkb= IYd2ojXf-62eDFwX5E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34968846 34788730 34528686 34078670 33548671 33098707
32708790 32588846 32548933 32678997 32929054 33299072
33769068 34249051 34679012 34868973 34968925 34998862
34968846=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)