ACUS11 KWNS 011942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011942=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-012145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Portions of Idaho and Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 011942Z - 012145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts will be possible as thunderstorms overspread portions of northeast Idaho and
southwest/central Montana. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Lightning counts have been trending up across northeast
ID and southwest MT over the past hour as an upper wave begins to
shift east and temperatures warm into the upper 60s/low 70s. A
combination a modest low-level moisture and cold temperatures aloft
are supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 500 J/kg, which may
increase slightly through late afternoon as daytime heating and some
degree of mid-level ascent/cooling continues. Downstream of the
developing convection, low-level lapse rates have steadily increased
to around 8 C/km, which should support some potential for
accelerating downdrafts and strong/severe downburst winds.
Additionally, 25-30 knot mid-level flow sampled by the KSFX VWP
suggests that some degree of cell organization is possible and may
support a transient threat for large hail as well as severe gusts.
In general, this potential should remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance.

..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4FRjkIjGPJ1yuRDbedC4gAA8gHSXFn5aIf6plVhhDd6hgyqnq3kSDGFJ-ydFEgDXD8-6cnqo8= F9Mr9mqfBA-PRC8GRo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

LAT...LON 48220995 48020915 47630882 47170875 46640886 46210917
45760969 45271025 44521097 43641118 43181139 42901187
42821252 43221399 43491447 43761470 44191478 44581474
45261440 46081349 47931138 48151082 48220995=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)