ACUS11 KWNS 012132
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012132=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-012330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1426
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0432 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Parts of western KS...far southeastern CO...and the
far northern OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 012132Z - 012330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of severe wind gusts and isolated large hail will
increase over the next few hours. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...To the west of a north/south-oriented dryline in
southwest KS, boundary-layer cumulus is deepening within the
hot/well-mixed air over southeastern CO and northeastern NM. As a
subtle midlevel impulse over northeastern NM (evident in water-vapor
imagery) overspreads the area, widely scattered high-based
thunderstorms should evolve east-northeastward into a moist,
diurnally unstable air mass over western KS and vicinity. The DDC
18Z sounding sampled steep deep-layer lapse rates, which will be
favorable for the development of robust outflow with a mix of
loosely organized clusters and some supercell structures (aided by
around 30-40 kt of effective shear). While severe gusts will be the
main concern, isolated large hail will also be possible with the
more separated updrafts initially. Current thinking is that a watch
will be needed.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5lbAn046c7oSXXUmI6bxB_kFw8p5WMkVuUDx5pj5x3nC_HYSMre2U_dAjG2dK1sFea9zo8A6i= tVRguIcNBvXMwDSijc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON 37880232 39170194 39640154 39770100 39680021 39449988
38909974 38159980 37320035 36910108 36890198 37260235
37880232=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)