ACUS11 KWNS 012311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012311=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-020115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Northeast NE...northern IA...southern MN...western
WI...and far southeast SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 012311Z - 020115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for thunderstorm development
and an increasing all-hazards severe risk. While timing/evolution of
the severe risk remains uncertain, current thinking is that a watch
will be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery indicates a
ENE/WSW-oriented band of gradually deepening boundary-layer cumulus
along a subtle surface boundary/confluence zone extending from
southern MN into northwest IA and vicinity. Over the next couple
hours, a strengthening southerly LLJ and related isentropic lift
should reduce remaining inhibition (sampled by the OAX 18Z sounding)
and promote widely scattered thunderstorm development along/near the
boundary. A warm/moist PBL (lower/middle 70s dewpoints) beneath
steep lapse rates is yielding strong surface-based buoyancy, which
combined with around 40 kt of effective shear, will favor storm organization/intensification. Given the increasing warm advection
and boundary-parallel deep-layer shear, a mixed mode of supercells
and organized clusters will pose a risk for severe/damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and a couple tornadoes (given increasing
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs).=20

While the subtle forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on overall
convective timing/evolution, current thinking is that a watch will
be needed for parts of the area.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6Kl6XLM-Pn6MnE9vhjQqHhwGIDqq6zD09oOI8iUGiOdeqkyvrpLRh77WF0FINfg-cQ7mEnadf= KE6rTrb3BVMr5BtkeQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 44469322 44659194 44589123 44389095 43769060 43349083
42599326 42149444 41699613 41769697 42019768 42649767
43029706 44469322=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)