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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1430

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 2 00:07:21 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 020007
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020007=20
    NYZ000-020130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1430
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0707 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

    Areas affected...portions of north-central New York

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432...

    Valid 020007Z - 020130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 432
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms entering north-central New York
    may bring additional potential for occasionally damaging wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has developed within a
    bullseye of locally greater buoyancy across portions of southern
    Ontario over the past couple of hours and is now progressing towards
    the St. Lawrence River and north-central New York. The exact
    evolution of this cluster remains uncertain as observations indicate
    greater low-level stability is in place immediately downstream to
    the east owing to prior convection. Greater buoyancy remains in
    place farther south, however, where convection has been more
    isolated and has not substantially stabilized the low-levels. The
    most likely scenario would be for this cluster to progress more
    southeastward along the surface theta-e gradient, with a gradual
    weakening of the northern edge and maintenance along the southern
    periphery. Regardless of the exact evolution, at least some
    potential for occasionally damaging wind gusts is likely to
    accompany this cluster over the next hour or two across
    north-central New York.

    ..Chalmers.. 07/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6b_diJmcIaEGz8eejLLN-cBUrHMcwLxMJ4gSCOkh_t4cwocSecR0G9zydmbqlgEXPocTx4uaS= PDAX_-JC6iAVGBfgvg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

    LAT...LON 45027575 45017538 44817490 44427447 43867407 43377384
    42977382 42797408 42687452 42587500 42577543 42727615
    42917638 43337648 43757652 44307658 44587639 44727620
    45027575=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)