ACUS11 KWNS 020010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020009=20
MNZ000-020145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0709 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Areas affected...Parts of northern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020009Z - 020145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple strong storms may pose a risk of locally damaging
gusts and marginally severe hail during the next couple hours.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front and in the vicinity of
pre-frontal differential heating zone, isolated thunderstorms are
developing in northern MN -- aided by an approaching midlevel
trough. Despite marginal surface-based buoyancy, relatively steep
deep-layer lapse rates and an elongated/straight hodograph (around
30-40 kt of effective shear) could promote transient storm
organization. Locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail
cannot be ruled out with the stronger cores that evolve during the
next couple hours.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6xq7K8bD0LKWv0p8b1ZQGpnU47hT70TU2r7RvWri7NMeiiVHkKvC4Ma5yZ4hyN6e843irQmiR= uwMopNz4qxv_ftsE2Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

LAT...LON 47489267 47299341 47309481 47579555 47779590 48299592
48779567 49009493 48989426 48769310 48409242 47809227
47489267=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)