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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1433

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 2 03:28:55 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 020328
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020328=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-020500-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1433
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

    Areas affected...Far southeast MN...far northeast IA...and
    western/central WI

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

    Valid 020328Z - 020500Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts continues across
    parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, especially over parts of
    western Wisconsin and vicinity in the near term. Convective trends
    are being monitored for a possible downstream watch.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ARX depicts gradual organization/intensification of a small north/south-oriented
    convective cluster moving eastward across far southeast MN and
    northeast IA. These storms will continue tracking along/immediately
    south of a surface boundary/wind shift, generally demarcated by a
    band of elevated thunderstorms. To the south of the boundary, a
    warm/moist PBL and around 35 kt of unidirectional 0-3 km shear (per
    ARX VWP) may support a locally favorable corridor for damaging winds
    with this cluster of storms and any new development along/south of
    the boundary with eastward extent. Convective trends are being
    monitored for a possible downstream watch.

    ..Weinman.. 07/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4HRdJNBHD30wt4wKONDoI7LHujSQWe9KVGYakyJlwWiziUNC77wzZZ14u8zAqPOOjCLVPJV2b= 4cMCfrEnOhlXZ9JFyw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

    LAT...LON 43139029 43099149 43189182 43589180 43869150 44129062
    44238945 44098892 43768880 43378896 43139029=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)