ACUS11 KWNS 020658
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020658=20
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-020900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Northeast CO into the southern NE Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 020658Z - 020900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible overnight.

DISCUSSION...Strong to locally severe storms are ongoing across
parts of northeast CO as of 0655 UTC. Moist low-level easterly flow
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting moderate to locally
strong buoyancy, with objectively analyzed MUCAPE values ranging
from around 1000 J/kg north of Greeley to greater than 2000 J/kg
into far northeast CO. Veering wind profiles and modest
southwesterly flow aloft are resulting in effective shear of 30-40
kt, supportive of organized convection.=20

Strong multicells and perhaps a supercell or two will remain
possible through the early overnight, with a threat of large hail
and localized strong/severe gusts. Thus far, storms have been
relatively slow-moving, with a tendency toward some cell
interference. This trend may continue, resulting in a generally
isolated threat and making the need for a watch uncertain. However,
watch issuance may be considered if trends support a greater
coverage of severe threat overnight.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8cE27jGY0peo2M4eGd2cXTB0BPdUBsPrF1a3UM37tQGXM_2kHKAntvcFhXskur6AD05SIMjFj= 9x5LRzYOj5FHVoldkU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40260520 40900444 41140346 41190292 41030238 40820248
40450284 40200335 40080453 40080494 40260520=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)