ACUS11 KWNS 021606
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021605=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-021730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1436
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...northern Iowa into far southwest Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021605Z - 021730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The large hail/damaging wind threat will increase late
this morning and into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Storm coverage has recently increased along a frontal
boundary across northern Iowa this morning in response to an
approaching mid-level shortwave trough. SPC mesoanalysis indicates
the environment along and south of this front is nearly uncapped
with 2000 to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ongoing storms are likely elevated,
but given continued heating, they may become surface-based in the
next 1 to 2 hours. Either way, there is sufficient MUCAPE in the
area. This instability, combined with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level
flow, will support a supercell threat late this morning and into the
early afternoon.

..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7m93vj58Ro4jjMJ8Usr3WKGplRWeI2HrVYCrLGa7frsQtX8h4J0wQh8LCQpl_08NAhk2fE4Cn= aByBepOqgzU_olKuAI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42619503 43059478 43409402 43469305 43489102 43328999
42589015 42299226 42239425 42359507 42619503=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)