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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1439

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/127 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jul 2 18:10:29 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 021810
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 021810=20
    ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-021945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1439
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0110 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

    Areas affected...northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437...

    Valid 021810Z - 021945Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 437
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues this afternoon across
    northeast Iowa.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has congealed across northern Iowa
    with a recent measured wind gust of 72 mph near Mason City, Iowa.
    Expect some southward preference of this cluster along the
    instability gradient through the afternoon. In addition, storms are
    starting to develop along the outflow boundary ahead of this
    cluster. These storms may also develop supercell characteristics
    considering 35 to 40 knots of mid-level flow sampled by the KARX
    VWP. These cells and the potential for further upscale growth as
    these storms congeal, will lead to an increasing damaging wind
    threat this afternoon across northeast Iowa and perhaps into far
    southwest Wisconsin.=20

    Easterly low-level flow north of the boundary and heating across
    this boundary could result in a narrow zone north of the outflow
    with some tornado potential. However, the low-level jet is quite
    weak (less than 20 knots below 2km per area VWPs) which would limit
    a greater threat.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_dHsI6z7U5I5ism7uJox_5iWd0pc7QlYbB26tBMx2ZM2yP0A5DqtPid3lTZGACB21PCA4Iltl= pPeEKqoE-jDBgCPfoc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

    LAT...LON 43299329 43469257 43469024 43219001 42508990 41878995
    41869140 41809299 42619363 43299329=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)