ACUS11 KWNS 021827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021826=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-022000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1440
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...central/eastern South Dakota into far western
Minnesota.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 021826Z - 022000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing supercell threat over the next 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A region of ascent associated with a mid-level
shortwave trough pivoting out of Nebraska and into southern South
Dakota has now interacted with the outflow boundary from morning
convection across south-central South Dakota. 2500 to 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE in this region will support robust updraft development.
Moderate to strong deep-layer shear (40 to 45 knots) will support
supercell storm mode. The biggest question will be storm longevity
in the short term. An earlier supercell across central South Dakota
eventually became disconnected from the outflow boundary as it moved
south. This boundary is still moving south, but somewhat slower than
earlier with warming on the cool side of the boundary. Therefore,
the potential for one or more supercells to latch on to this
boundary is likely higher now. If it appears storms will remain
rooted to the boundary, a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed.
However, it remains possible these early storms move quickly into
the more stable airmass and are only short lived. Any mature
supercells which develop will have a threat for large hail, severe
winds, and perhaps a tornado.=20

The outflow boundary across eastern South Dakota and far western
Minnesota has mostly stalled with some towers noted on satellite
imagery. A few supercells may develop within this area as mid-level
ascent approaches. If these supercells develop, it might also
necessitate a severe thunderstorm watch.

..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5C7ZM1iZeDNiNKeyaKZ8Ptset2w_Hzb5LOIDWYA3Mxb7kYhyrtK7DE74kiYKsjw_pwD84hUPT= lBasXm2xkb7FWCDG10$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 43369922 43600007 43980079 44380111 44700108 44670035
44679906 44969797 45239696 46129644 46279534 45399547
43719685 43279807 43269875 43369922=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)