ACUS11 KWNS 021931
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021930=20
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1441
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 021930Z - 022100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A downstream watch will likely be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The outflow boundary from this morning stalled across
northern Illinois around mid-day and has started to lift north
through the early afternoon. Expect this boundary to continue to
move north as strong heating continues north of the boundary.
Ongoing supercells to the west will continue to pose a large hail
and damaging wind threat as they straddle the boundary, moving east
this afternoon and into the evening. A locally higher tornado threat
may exist along this boundary, especially if any supercells can
latch on to it. Given current trends with storms to the west, a
downstream watch will likely be needed by 4 PM, but if storms
develop farther east along the boundary, a watch may be needed
earlier.

..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_p8XsZRY27tCkPnVqW8Cq2ELXBMLBiOwSDazRVIlDMy5294OTcJS9QqGjpfXmEhapNT7zagI= n7lnvoIPH7iAPRMQlY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

LAT...LON 43469064 43668961 43628765 43188769 42468767 41968748
42178889 42299012 42339057 43469064=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)