ACUS03 KWNS 130829
SWODY3
SPC AC 130828
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central
and the south Texas to the Gulf Coast.
...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough and mid-level jet will move from the southern
High Plains into central TX beneath a building ridge over the
Midwest Sunday. An associated surface low will aid southerly flow
drawing a modified Gulf air mass northward across south-central TX.
However, the expansive surface high to the northeast will likely
stall the northward advance of the more robust surface moisture
farther south. Elevated buoyancy and thunderstorms are likely across
the Red River Vicinity with additional thunderstorm development
possible farther south through Sunday and into early Monday.
...South-central TX to the Gulf Coast...
Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the start of
the period near the center of the upper trough and surface low
associated with low-level warm air advection. Multiple rounds of
showers and storms, in combination with the increasingly strong
northerly surface gradient, should gradually focus the effective
warm sector farther south into TX. Elevated buoyancy of a few
hundred J/kg may persist across the Red River vicinity through
Sunday afternoon, with low-end potential for sporadic hail with any
stronger elevated storms.
Farther south, more robust inland moisture return is expected with
mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints. As the upper trough
approaches, low-level warm air advection and diurnal destabilization
should support an increase in thunderstorm activity across parts of
south and central Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast.
Gradually strengthening veering wind profiles (EBWD 30-40 kt) may
favor storm organization into clusters or transient supercells.
Damaging gusts, some hail and perhaps a brief tornado are possible
into early Monday.
..Lyons.. 11/13/2026
$$
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