ACUS11 KWNS 022011
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022011=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 022011Z - 022215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered severe wind gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...A supercell has developed on the Raton Mesa where SPC
HRRR-based mesoanalysis shows minimal inhibition. Additional storms
have started to develop farther northeast from this storm along the
dryline into an increasingly unstable airmass. It is unclear whether
these storms will continue to develop northeast along the boundary
or if they will cluster and move into western Kansas, but either
way, a region of greater severe wind threat may exits into western
Kansas this afternoon/evening where 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE exists
with mid-level flow of 25 to 30 knots, sufficient for some multicell
storms. If sufficient clustering occurs this evening, a severe
thunderstorm watch may need to be issued.

..Bentley/Hart.. 07/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4TobPEISw-pz3-4lpaQ2LZXwL0UHhbahxTDZ9hk8SxVcIrxS_R-cGlOcAv5SI1mdcx52QxDyf= 91q2Qn_J9FViSYgX1A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37090324 39570173 40150068 39519967 38290009 36680212
36600309 37090324=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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* Origin: Capitol City Weather Station (1:2320/127)